2018 Offseason And Targets

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zbhargrove said:
I don't mind Keuchel if the price is right although I'm not convinced he's much of an upgrade over Fried/Touki/Gohara.... you replace Teheran with him I'd be okay but I'm not seeing us getting rid of Teheran at this point sadly. I just don't see Kimbrel as a need.
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DK had a 3.6 fWAR last year. He instantly becomes our #2 pitcher and could very easily be our best with Folty regressing even a little.
 
The only reason I like DK for Atlanta is the strong infield defense behind a good groundball pitcher. But still don’t like the lose of a draft pick in a draft where we can do some serious damage with bonus pool money. That is around 1.2 million in pool money we would lose.
 
I can't see the Braves being the high bid for Keuchel. Seems like someone like the Phillies would block it from getting that low.

Reasonable target for the White Sox and Padres if they really wish to be relevant also. Rays on a short big deal would also make sense.
 
CrazyTrain said:
DK had a 3.6 fWAR last year. He instantly becomes our #2 pitcher and could very easily be our best with Folty regressing even a little.
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Agreed. I'd be 100% on board with Keuchel. DK (LHP), Folty (RHP), Newk (LHP), Gausman (RHP), Touki/Soroka/Fried is really potent.
 
CrazyTrain said:
DK had a 3.6 fWAR last year. He instantly becomes our #2 pitcher and could very easily be our best with Folty regressing even a little.
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Sure he becomes our #2 pitcher but barely and it doesn't really move the needle... so you want to pay $20 million + for that you're an idiot
 
zbhargrove said:
Sure he becomes our #2 pitcher but barely and it doesn't really move the needle... so you want to pay $20 million + for that you're an idiot
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Not sure wanting DK falls into the idiot category. I also don’t think he is getting 20 million plus. For me it is the lose of the draft pick that tips it to a no. I was pretty strong no before I really dug into his numbers. After I did I waivered back and forth before sticking with my original no due to QO attachment.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Not sure wanting DK falls into the idiot category. I also don’t think he is getting 20 million plus. For me it is the lose of the draft pick that tips it to a no. I was pretty strong no before I really dug into his numbers. After I did I waivered back and forth before sticking with my original no due to QO attachment.
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Wanting DK is not moronic, but this: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/quick-hits-keuchel-marwin-padres-tribe-wilson-athletics.html

Free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel asked for a six- to seven-year contract worth $25MM to $30MM per annum at the beginning of the offseason

is completely moronic. Anyone willing to give DK upwards of $200M should have his/her job title immediately removed.

Pitchers who are roughly comparable to DK that have signed so far this off season include:

Corbin - 6/140, 29 years old, projected for 3.5 WAR
Eovaldi - 4/68, 29 years old, projected for 2.7 WAR (and carries the "premium stuff" tag)

DK is 2 years older, and projects for 3.3 WAR. It's pretty obvious he isn't getting 4+ years, but $17M+ AAV is completely reasonable.

Something like 3/55 is what I expect him to settle for, and maybe finds a team willing to kick in the 4th year. I would have no problem giving him that kind of cash for 2 years, but years 3 and 4 will end up pretty ugly I bet. He is probably projected to produce around 6-7 WAR for the rest of his career, so however a team wants to spread that cost out over a deal is insignificant.
 
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bravesfanMatt said:
Not sure wanting DK falls into the idiot category. I also don’t think he is getting 20 million plus. For me it is the lose of the draft pick that tips it to a no. I was pretty strong no before I really dug into his numbers. After I did I waivered back and forth before sticking with my original no due to QO attachment.
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No wanting DK is not idiotic and never did I say it was. Thinking he will move the needle much at the price he will command certainly is.
 
zbhargrove said:
Sure he becomes our #2 pitcher but barely and it doesn't really move the needle... so you want to pay $20 million + for that you're an idiot
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Barely? Assuming health he should be a lock for 3+ WAR. Folty is the only pitcher we have that's very likely to have over 2.5 WAR. That isn't to say someone couldn't step up. We have enough talent that someone could break out. But certainly no one you would classify at this time as likely to produce around 3 WAR.
 
Carp said:
Barely? Assuming health he should be a lock for 3+ WAR. Folty is the only pitcher we have that's very likely to have over 2.5 WAR. That isn't to say someone couldn't step up. We have enough talent that someone could break out. But certainly no one you would classify at this time as likely to produce around 3 WAR.
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Newcomb, Gausman, and Soroka could all easily hit 3 WAR and Folty will shatter it
 
Carp said:
Barely? Assuming health he should be a lock for 3+ WAR. Folty is the only pitcher we have that's very likely to have over 2.5 WAR. That isn't to say someone couldn't step up. We have enough talent that someone could break out. But certainly no one you would classify at this time as likely to produce around 3 WAR.
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Yes barely. What do you think the difference is in wins replacing one 2 WAR pitcher with a 3 WAR pitcher? It won't move any needles
 
zbhargrove said:
Yes barely. What do you think the difference is in wins replacing one 2 WAR pitcher with a 3 WAR pitcher? It won't move any needles
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Well for one, we are not just replacing a 2 win pitcher with a 3 win pitcher. Signing Kuechel bumps the low man off the rotation. Perhaps that is JT. And the difference in 1.0-1.5 WAR and 3+ is pretty substantial.
 
zbhargrove said:
Sure he becomes our #2 pitcher but barely and it doesn't really move the needle... so you want to pay $20 million + for that you're an idiot
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I never said I would do it, but saying stuff like "Dallas Kuechal isn't any better than the rest of our rotation" is asinine and ridiculous.
 
CrazyTrain said:
Gausman might get close and Soroka (if healthy) should have a great season, but Newk won't even beat the WAR he had last year.
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Why don't you think Newk beats his WAR from last season. His peripherals actually showed him to be slightly better in the second half of the year than the first. If he can refine his approach and/or command a little (something that's still possible given his age and experience) then he could easily top last year's WAR.

Granted, he might not. Any number of things might happen. I just don't see Newk as a lock to regress. He's likely never going to be the frontline starter we hoped he would be when we traded for him but he's not trash.
 
Never say never... he showed major flashes last year - like almost no hitting the Dodgers... he may just be a late bloomer like DeGrom...
 
striker42 said:
Why don't you think Newk beats his WAR from last season. His peripherals actually showed him to be slightly better in the second half of the year than the first. If he can refine his approach and/or command a little (something that's still possible given his age and experience) then he could easily top last year's WAR.

Granted, he might not. Any number of things might happen. I just don't see Newk as a lock to regress. He's likely never going to be the frontline starter we hoped he would be when we traded for him but he's not trash.
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Which stats particularly did he improve on? For the most part, his stats are identical, just his luck stats (BABIP, LOB%) returned to league average. His battled ball profiles changed a lot, as his LD% skyrocketed (19 to almost 24%), sharp drop in GB% (46 to 38%). His med and hard hit% also skyrocketed from 45 and 32% to 51 and 40%.

Looks to me like people just figured him out in the second half. The margin for error with guys that have Newk's style stuff is extremely low. If you're main pitch philosophy is FB/CH, you gotta be able to locate. At almost 26, I don't see that happening for him.
 
Braves have a ton of rotation opens, im not sure DK fits.

Folty, Julio, Gaus, Soroka, Newk, Touki, Gohara to name a few, and Wright, Wilson, Fried also in the mix for spot starts.

The only issue with my 2nd post is there's not room for all of them and i'm a little irritated some of them werent moved to help the big league club. But Gaus may be non-tendered next year and Julio's probably not back so suddenly the depth takes a hit there.
 
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