2018 Offseason And Targets

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striker42 said:
K rate increased, BB rate (IIRC) dropped a hair, FIP was slightly lower.

Newk was fairly similar in the second half. As you pointed out, his luck normalized so it looked like he was worse.

I'm not saying Newk's going to be amazing this year. I just don't see him as a big candidate to regress. I expect something similar. Maybe a small improvement if he continues to refine his game.
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We are seeing Newk settle in throwing about 41% strikes (Zone%). That's good for 41st place out of 56 qualified SPs.

Batters are still swinging at those strikes at a consistent rate (Z-Swing%), but they are swinging at fewer and fewer of his non-strikes (O-Swing%, 49th of 56 qualified SPs in 2018).

Throwing a lot of balls and having nobody swinging at them is a recipe for a lot of walks, as should be obvious.

None of the data paints a picture that suggests Newk is going to markedly improve his BB rate in his mid-20s, as I detailed over a year ago.

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I am surprised it took the league half a year to figure out Newk will probably throw three balls before he can get two strikes on you. Also don’t swing when the pitch is three feet high and three feet wide.
 
As I've said 20 times the last 2 years, Newk is in the same mold as Oliver Perez and Jonathan Sanchez (who threw a no-hitter in 2009).

They are "stuff #4s" who everyone keeps dreaming about "if they can only figure out how to throw more strikes", and end up producing ~2 wins as a SP, or become a legit setup man if moved to the BP.

The good news with Newk is that he's showing no signs of declining stuff, so he should be able to avoid any serious (non-injury) regression in 2019.
 
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I also warned this board over and over that Newk's early success in 2018 was due in most part to an unsustainable low HR/FB rate, and when that rate normalized, he would struggle.

That's exactly what happened:

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Heyward said:
In other news, Keuchel/Kimbrel/Machado/Harper among others like Marwin, Moose, etc still arent signed and camps are opening.

Baseball has to fix this.
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Those players have had very lucrative offers. Its not MLB's problem they want more. Who else in American sports is spitting at 200+ million like Machado and Harper?
 
cajunrevenge said:
Those players have had very lucrative offers. Its not MLB's problem they want more. Who else in American sports is spitting at 200+ million like Machado and Harper?
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Machado and Harper are top 5-10 players, they should be rewarded with those kinda deals but teams are also being smarter now about the 10-12 year deals and going with 5-6 years but a higher annual cost per year.

Also has been said not every team in MLB is spending which is reducing some players cost.
 
Garmel said:
Well, which one is it, Enscheff?
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Your streak of posting only about me has now increased to 38 straight haha! OBSESSED!!

When I said that back in August his stuff was declining. His velocity chart shows that as an indisputable fact. He regained it towards the end of the season. Hopefully AA can rest him properly to avoid such declines in the future.

Where's you sig, hero?
 
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Enscheff said:
Your streak of posting only about me has now increased to 38 straight haha! OBSESSED!!

When I said that back in August his stuff was declining. His velocity chart shows that as an indisputable fact. He regained it towards the end of the season. Hopefully AA can rest him properly to avoid such declines in the future.

Where's you sig, hero?
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Just asking a question. Perhaps that'll teach you to jump to quick conclusions. LOL! Who am I kidding? You won't learn. Btw, you've mentioned his declining stuff several times so don't try to say that you knew it was only temporary due to lack of rest.
 
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Garmel said:
Just asking a question. Perhaps that'll teach you to jump to quick conclusions. LOL! Who am I kidding? You won't learn.
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#39...

"his stuff is declining as well" is a factual statement. His stuff was, in fact, declining. Fact.

Note I didn't say anything about the future of his stuff. No other conclusion was drawn.

Reading is haaarrrrddddd. Derrrrp!

Now...where's that sig of yours hero?
 
Enscheff said:
#39...

"his stuff is declining as well" is a factual statement. His stuff was, in fact, declining. Fact.

Note I didn't say anything about the future of his stuff. No other conclusion was drawn.

Reading is haaarrrrddddd. Derrrrp!

Now...where's that sig of yours hero?
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Watching you lie is so funny. It comes naturally to sociopaths.
 
Garmel said:
Watching you lie is so funny. It comes naturally to sociopaths.
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#40...

Your obsession with me is worrying...I am literally the only thing you post about...and you claim to love living in someone's head rent free lol...seems to me I own the tiny space in your head...

Factual statements are lies? Please use post #41 to point out the lie in "his stuff is declining as well".

Oh, and don't forget to put that sig up hero haha! Not doing so after repeatedly promising you would makes you a liar.
 
Enscheff said:
#40...

Your obsession with me is worrying...I am literally the only thing you post about...and you claim to love living in someone's head rent free lol...

Factual statements are lies? Please use post #41 to point out the lie in "his stuff is declining as well".

Oh, and don't forget to put that sig up hero haha!
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I think the post that I put up shows exactly what was going through your head. You put out several of these "Newk is declining" posts which you wouldn't put out if you thought it was a temporary condition. They're older posts and without the help of a search engine it'll be hard to find but they're out there somewhere. Maybe I'll try to find them. I thought of adding a new line to my sig. I'll show it to you some time.
 
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For Pete's sake. I wish some of you guys would upgrade your subscription to the site so you get access to the Ignore button.



bravesfanMatt said:
Ok. Now that camps are open we need some best shape of their life picks. Gohard is too easy so drop another name.
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I expect we'll hear that Dansby's wrist feels fully recovered now, and he's added some strength or improved his swing.
 
Garmel said:
I think the post that I put up shows exactly what was going through your head. You put out several of these "Newk is declining" posts which you wouldn't put out if you thought it was a temporarily condition. They're older posts and without the help of a search engine it'll be hard to find but they're out there somewhere. Maybe I'll try to find them. I added a new line to my sig that i haven't put up yet. I'll show it to you sometime.
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#41...I’m afraid of what else your obsession with me is going to compel you show me though...notice I don’t even bother putting you in my sig?

My thoughts on Newk have been consistent from day 1. I have never waivered. You even immortalized my opinion of him in your sig, which you no longer display to avoid showing I’m right despite promising over and over to always keep it up...like a sociopathic liar.

The comment about his stuff declining was made because his stuff was, in fact, declining when I made the comment. Simple fact. It doesn’t take a sales engineer to understand that.
 
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