2018 Offseason And Targets

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clvclv said:
Can't argue for "value signings" if you're going to sign Markakis for the same number of years as the Astros gave Brantley - if winning factors into your "plan", you just can't.

As Schultz pointed out in the article, revenues increased by $15 million in the third quarter alone last year - paying less than two quarters of that type of increase for the upgrade Brantley represents effectively wouldn't even have dented the bottom line in the long run. The sales of Brantley jerseys and playoff tickets would have covered a HUGE part of the difference between those two players, and arguing Markakis will come close to matching Brantley's production is fool's folly - even for AA and McGuirk.
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You can't argue for 'value signings' because they passed on paying Brantley $32 million and instead paid Markakis $4 million?
 
Swinging back to looking at BP targets, here's xwOBA values for the remaining RH FA options who FG projects to produce more than 0 WAR (plus Viz thrown in for reference):

Arodys Vizcaino (a Grade ~60 BP arm all Braves fans are familiar with)
2016 - 0.272
2017 - 0.290
2018 - 0.304

Craig Kimbrel 31 (The Grade 70+ BP arm the Braves likely can't afford)
2016 - 0.276
2017 - 0.242
2018 - 0.265

Bud Norris 34 (nsacpi's man crush)
2016 - 0.328 (still as a SP)
2017 - 0.301
2018 - 0.285

Ryan Madson 38 (my personal favorite potential addition)
2016 - 0.297
2017 - 0.249
2018 - 0.300

Both Norris and Madson should be able to approximate another Viz in the BP, and either would be a good value add if AA decides he can afford it.
 
Enscheff said:
Swinging back to looking at BP targets, here's xwOBA values for the remaining RH FA options who FG projects to produce more than 0 WAR (plus Viz thrown in for reference):

Arodys Vizcaino (a Grade ~60 BP arm all Braves fans are familiar with)
2016 - 0.272
2017 - 0.290
2018 - 0.304

Craig Kimbrel 31 (The Grade 70+ BP arm the Braves likely can't afford)
2016 - 0.276
2017 - 0.242
2018 - 0.265

Bud Norris 34 (nsacpi's man crush)
2016 - 0.328 (still as a SP)
2017 - 0.301
2018 - 0.285

Ryan Madson 38 (my personal favorite potential addition)
2016 - 0.297
2017 - 0.249
2018 - 0.300

Both Norris and Madson should be able to approximate another Viz in the BP, and either would be a good value add if AA decides he can afford it.
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Only if he can get 90 cents on the dollar
 
Enscheff said:
If the time to add isn't immediately after winning the NL East with a young core, I don't know when that time is.

If the time to spend isn't immediately after revenue increases, I don't know when that time is.

I suppose all we can do is hope these guys are as smart as they think they are, and The Plan isn't understood by us plebs.
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I’m in the same boat. I’m so frustrated with Liberty Media. Hate what they are doing with the Braves. Hate what they are doing with Formula 1.
 
smootness said:
You can't argue for 'value signings' because they passed on paying Brantley $32 million and instead paid Markakis $4 million?
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The difference you note was entirely affordable for the Braves, and you conveniently left off the "if winning factors into your plan" part. Brantley's deal would've been covered with the increased revenue streams, and hurts you no less as a long-term deal since it's for the same number of years.

Quick poll - raise your hand if you're happy with Markakis as an everyday corner OF and think he will legitimately contribute to more wins in 2019 and 2020 than any of a number of other options that could've been brought in on even cheaper (or minor league) deals.
 
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clvclv said:
The difference you note was entirely affordable for the Braves, and you conveniently left off the "if winning factors into your plan" part. Brantley's deal would've been covered with the increased revenue streams, and hurts you no less as a long-term deal since it's for the same number of years.

Quick poll - raise your hand if you're happy with Markakis as an everyday corner OF and think he will legitimately contribute to more wins in 2019 and 2020 than any of a number of other options that could've been brought in on even cheaper (or minor league deals.
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Well, let's only talk about 2019, since 2020 is a club option.

Obviously there were better players on the market than Markakis - no question about that. But please name all the options you think you can get for even cheaper who are at least as good as Markakis.
 
Southcack77 said:
You can't just multiply the Braves biggest quarterly revenue by four. They have different revenues in each quarter.

They probably have the ability to spend 130+ now if they would like. I genuinely do believe they are choosing not to do it based on the GM's preference rather than anything Liberty is dictating. The Braves aren't necessarily a huge part of Liberty's business. They are a tax offset and an asset that they hope appreciates. Not a golden goose cash machine.
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Which I didn't do. The statement is just fine as is.

Regardless of the fact that those quarterly revenue gains don't remain static, they brought in enough extra revenue in that particular quarter to pay HALF of what the upgrade from Markakis to Brantley would have cost over the length of their contracts. If they'd have taken just that one-quarter bump, and a little of what comes off the books with each of Julio, O'Day, Vizcaino, and Duvall next winter you just about cover the difference entirely without significantly affecting payroll.
 
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smootness said:
Well, let's only talk about 2019, since 2020 is a club option.

Obviously there were better players on the market than Markakis - no question about that. But please name all the options you think you can get for even cheaper who are at least as good as Markakis.
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Steamer projection for Markakis in 2019 - 0.9 WAR (137 games). I'd have been perfectly happy with...

Marwin Gonzalez - 1.6 WAR (133 games) - sure he'd cost slightly more, but AA has "plenty of money", right?
Lonnie Chisenhall - 0.4 WAR (60 games)
Curtis Granderson - 0.6 WAR (99 games)
Matt Joyce - (no projections yet)
Derek Dietrich - (no projections yet)
Denard Span - 0.5 WAR (65 games)

Any of those guys would have been more receptive to being platooned, making it easier to get ABs for Camargo and Riley in the OF.

We've been down the Markakis-brick road. We know exactly what he is. We also know he's not going to be happy if he's asked to be a part-time player, and is liable to cause problems when that happens - even without screaming about it to the media. Snitker and the other clubhouse leaders love him so much that the situation can be uncomfortable without Nick ever opening his mouth.
 
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Axford and Cedeno are now off the market as relief options (not that I was interested in either)

I guess on the plus side with AA - he hasn't signed any crippling contracts that we will have to get up a lot of talent to unload
 
I have to be out of town for Valentine's Day, so my neighbor volunteered to stay at my house to keep my wife company. He's such a great guy.
 
smootness said:
You can't argue for 'value signings' because they passed on paying Brantley $32 million and instead paid Markakis $4 million?
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Remember ... the Braves didn't just have to match the $32 million. They had to overcome the fact that Texas has no state income tax and the face that the player apparently preferred the Astros. would have been willing to go to, say, $40mm? $45?

Maybe, but it would require some thought, yeah?
 
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