2018 Offseason And Targets

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Horsehide Harry said:
IMO as of today:

NL East -

Washington

then in any order and likely dependant on health and luck

Phillies
Mets
Braves

SP - Nats, Mets, Braves, Phillies
RP - Mets, Phillies, Braves, Nats
Lineup - Phillies, Nats, Braves, Mets
Bench - Nats, Braves, Phillies, Mets

Best overall Pitching - Mets, Nats, Phillies, Braves
Best overall hitting - Phillies, Nats, Braves, Mets

Keuchel, Kimbrel, Gonzalez, Maldonado, Madson, Warren, Sipp left to sign.

If the Braves added Keuchel they still wouldn't pass the Nats or Mets. I see the Phillies making a run.
If they signed Kimbrel they probably pass Philly but not the Mets in RP. Expect the Nats to make an offer IF he signs in the NL East.
Gonzalez would be filler and not move the needle at all for the Braves. Again Phillies maybe.
Maldonado might end in Philly.
Braves probably get one of Madson, Warren or Sipp.
Or they get nothing and the NL ends up with none of the leftovers.

Health and luck. That's what the Braves are praying for now.
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I'm ok with our bullpen as it is now. Kimbrel would be a panic move. And i'd say our lineup is better than the Nats as of now, especially without Harper.
 
Heyward said:
I'm ok with our bullpen as it is now. Kimbrel would be a panic move. And i'd say our lineup is better than the Nats as of now, especially without Harper.
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Disagree on the lineups. I think the Nats are better and less dependent on injury luck (but still dependent). I would say it's close. Braves core of Acuna, Donaldson, Freeman compares well with Soto, Rendon, Zimmerman but close: Soto = Acuna, Rendon = Freeman, Donaldson > Zimmerman probably but both are aging and coming off injury. The Nats lineup sets up better though and they have the x-factor of Robles that the Braves just don't have. Robles was there answer to Acuna until he went down with injury last year and Soto emerged. Eaton is a better LO man than anyone the Braves have. Turner is much better than Swanson. Dozier probably not as good as Albies depending on which of each shows up. Their catching is probably better. I'd say it's close.
 
What exactly is the point in position by position comps? As if having 1 more WAR at C is equivalent to having 4 more WAR at LF?
 
I’m not saying at all that the Phillies haven’t improved. Only a fool would say they haven’t. The chances, IMO, of this contract being a bad one for the Phillies is quite high. Harper will hit home runs, especially in that ballpark. However, he’s not that great defensively and he’s going to strikeout a good bit. Harper is good, but he’s not the best player in the game, while being paid like he is. One has to wonder how much Trout will get if he hits the open market.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
I’m not saying at all that the Phillies haven’t improved. Only a fool would say they haven’t. The chances, IMO, of this contract being a bad one for the Phillies is quite high. Harper will hit home runs, especially in that ballpark. However, he’s not that great defensively and he’s going to strikeout a good bit. Harper is good, but he’s not the best player in the game, while being paid like he is. One has to wonder how much Trout will get if he hits the open market.
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His contract at least the money per year isnt that bad, i thought he'd get 30+ a year. The years is where it could be an albatross, at the end. But the DH is coming soon, so that can help down the line.
 
Heyward said:
His contract at least the money per year isnt that bad, i thought he'd get 30+ a year. The years is where it could be an albatross, at the end. But the DH is coming soon, so that can help down the line.
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You still aren’t understanding these mega contracts.

The.

Number.

Of.

Years.

Doesn’t.

Matter.

The Phillies bought the rest of Harper’s useful career. It’s only spread out over 13 years to lower the AAV hit for luxury tax purposes.

They know he’s not going to be worth $20M in 10 years. They are ok with that because he’s worth a lot more than $30M right now. That’s how these long term contracts work.
 
Enscheff said:
You still aren’t understanding these mega contracts.

The.

Number.

Of.

Years.

Doesn’t.

Matter.

The Phillies bought the rest of Harper’s useful career. It’s only spread out over 13 years to lower the AAV hit for luxury tax purposes.

They know he’s not going to be worth $20M in 10 years. They are ok with that because he’s worth a lot more than $30M right now. That’s how these long term contracts work.
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Exactly. That's why I say that the fact that the Braves didn't come close to playing on either Harper OR Machado (not that I think they should have) is an indicator that payroll is unlikely to increase significantly relative to where they are now. If $30M makes up 25% of your payroll, it's an issue if payroll doesn't grow.
 
Looking at Harpers stats today, I have to say in my opinion he's not worth such a mega deal. Flame me if you want, but I'm glad we didn't get suckered into that mess.

Is he great? Sure. Would I love him in RF? You bet. But I can't be mad. Bryce is a great player, but he does have his issues at times.

I do qualify all of this by hoping JD has a monster year and stays healthy.
 
Enscheff said:
You still aren’t understanding these mega contracts.

The.

Number.

Of.

Years.

Doesn’t.

Matter.

The Phillies bought the rest of Harper’s useful career. It’s only spread out over 13 years to lower the AAV hit for luxury tax purposes.

They know he’s not going to be worth $20M in 10 years. They are ok with that because he’s worth a lot more than $30M right now. That’s how these long term contracts work.
Click to expand...

Correct, but it probably won't stop the GM of the 2029 Phillies from using Harper's money as an excuse for not pursuing that year's top free agent.

Then again, maybe I've just been a Braves fan too long.
 
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