2018 Offseason And Targets

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nsacpi said:
it evades my question...i've asked two questions in this discussion

1) What do you value Kimbrel at

2) What effect would signing Kimbrel have on our ability to make mid-season moves

please feel free to answer either
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#2 is answered. We would not be able to make a significant cash upgrade and would end up causing the inclusion of a good prospect.

I dont think there is anything wrong with your valuation as a midpoint most likely outcome
 
thethe said:
I dont think there is anything wrong with your valuation as a midpoint most likely outcome
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I think he has been sitting on offers that value him at about 15M (which imo is an overpay). The reason he is unsigned is he is looking for more. If the fillies are willing to pay him more, as a Braves fan I would be delighted. I was delighted to see them sign Arrieta last off-season.
 
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If we got him, we'd probably have to have the other team eat salary and include a better prospect/s for a midseason trade.

But with Kimbrel, everyone moves down a slot. Viz/Minter/O'Day in the 6th-8th in some order, can use Venters when you need a groundball in the middle innings, etc. Pen is deeper.
 
nsacpi said:
I think he has been sitting on offers that value him at about 15M (which imo is an overpay). The reason he is unsigned is he is looking for more. If the fillies are willing to pay him more, as a Braves fan I would be delighted. I was delighted to see them sign Arrieta last off-season.
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I saw they're only willing to go short-term, he'd be signed by now if he got someone to overpay. Like 3/60 or 4/70+ or so.
 
Heyward said:
If we got him, we'd probably have to have the other team eat salary and include a better prospect/s for a midseason trade.

But with Kimbrel, everyone moves down a slot. Viz/Minter/O'Day in the 6th-8th in some order, can use Venters when you need a groundball in the middle innings, etc. Pen is deeper.
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so 1.5 or 2 WAR? where would you value him
 
Heyward said:
I saw they're only willing to go short-term, he'd be signed by now if he got someone to overpay. Like 3/60 or 4/70+ or so.
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3/60 and 4/70 was never gonna happen...except in the fevered imagination of Kimbrel and his agent

he was very shaky at the end of that season...and part of the supposed appeal of a closer is their ability to get it done in the big games
 
nsacpi said:
It expresses something. But that something depends on the price.
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Well you disagree with the intention that it would suggest, which is fine.

I would be a little puzzled by the Braves signing Kimbrel. 1 year deal would be odd in that they haven't really gone all in and the closer is usually the last piece of the puzzle.

3 year deal would be odd show of priorities. Closer over position player or pitching upgrade? I guess they could feel like they were acquiring a higher end piece than what they felt they could get elsewhere. Still a bit odd.

But He would help them. He would probably be elite NL closer. The pen would greatly benefit by the shift down.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think this can be asserted without some sort of understanding of how it impacts the team's ability to make mid-season moves.
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I suppose. I wouldn't think they would sign someone if it completely depleted their season cash reserve.

I have a hard time seeing me criticize them for not signing Kimbrel.

I think signing him would ultimately be a very eyebrow raising thing given the other things they've done.

I do tend to think they have a few more resources available than most. I think part of their non-spending is simply them not liking the deal. I will say the receiver market has challenged that thought a fair amount. They've let some quality vets go pretty cheap.
 
Southcack77 said:
I suppose. I wouldn't think they would sign someone if it completely depleted their season cash reserve.

I have a hard time seeing me criticize them for not signing Kimbrel.

I think signing him would ultimately be a very eyebrow raising thing given the other things they've done.

I do tend to think they have a few more resources available than most. I think part of their non-spending is simply them not liking the deal. I will say the receiver market has challenged that thought a fair amount. They've let some quality vets go pretty cheap.
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yeah i know...bud norris
 
right, kimbrel would help the team on the field. i don't think that's up for debate. but it will certainly hamstring the team's ability to add something later, and that something could be more valuable/more of a need than an aging RP. it's not smart for far too many reasons.
 
nsacpi said:
So if we sign Kimbrel for 13M what impact do you think that has on our ability to do mid-season acquisitions.
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I have absolutely no clue, and unfortunately nobody else here does either - just reasonable speculation.

I completely understand the desire to keep some powder dry for the deadline, but given how improved I think the rest of the division is I just don't think AA has the luxury of sitting idly by while watching the pen stumble like last year. If he does, they may be so far out of it at the deadline that there might not be a reason to add down the stretch. Given the rash of maladies rotation candidates have come down with this early, I don't think it's unfair to be a little pessimistic about our rotation even though none of the depth has been traded yet. It's certainly a little too early to jump ship, start panicking, and go give Keuchel 5 years just yet - but even though these kids are supremely talented I think it's still a little early (and unfair) to expect at least three of them to step in and produce AT LEAST better than Julio just yet. We didn't improve our #1, instead we banked on Folty repeating what may well have been a career year. We didn't improve our #2 unless Newk takes a Folty-like step forward in 2019. If Gausman can't handle a full load not only did we not improve our #3, we may be relying on Touki or Wright to be able to deliver 180+ quality innings - which is a little unfair. Julio is Julio in the #4 slot, which is to say that spot certainly hasn't improved. If Gohara and Soroka's "nicks" are serious, that leaves you Touki/Wright, Fried and his always questionable health, and Wilson to step up in the #5 spot. While some mix of them ought to do just fine in that role, it's certainly fair to expect substantial growing pains.

Even with all the depth left even if you don't have Gausman, Gohara, or Soroka, I'm fully expecting quite a few "5 and dive" outings from this rotation. Adding Kimbrel - if and only if he comes at a reasonable price - at least gives you a puncher's chance to still be in the mix at the deadline assuming the offensive pieces stay reasonably healthy. I'd just as soon be in that position come mid-July and make AA and McGuirk prove that "there's plenty of money available" if we're still in it - they did absolutely nothing to improve the team at the deadline last year when they had that chance, and I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for them to decide to trade prospects to help the big club this July either.
 
Kimbrel isn't signed because his agent came out asking for something like 6/100. Teams obviously balked at that, and then spent their money elsewhere. It is perfectly reasonable for Kimbrel to expect to beat the Wade David deal of 3/52, but now there aren't any teams with enough payroll space to afford that.

In short, Kimbrel's agent screwed up, same as Keuchel's (who was also asking for $100M+).

The value of elite BP arms is mostly gained in the postseason. In the regular season, a BP arm pitches roughly 4% of a team's innings. In the postseason the same elite BP arm is pitching roughly 10%-20% of a team's innings. This is why WAR is a bad measure of the value a BP arm contributes to a play off contender, and why we are seeing the $/WAR value for BP arms being roughly double that of position players and starting pitchers.
 
Super said:
based on what
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How bout stats?

Since 2015 among closers with at least 100 innings

2nd in Saves
2nd in Ks
2nd in K/9
3rd in BABIP
3rd in SIERA
4th in WAR (which again, I don't like for relievers, but still)
4th in FIP
5th in xFIP

Pretty sure I read where his BAA is one of the lowest all time as well, but I can't seem to find such info on FG.

Pretty much everything points to him being elite over this time.
 
Britton got 3 years 13m from a team that expects to be in the playoffs...kimbrel should get more...but I'd be very surprised if his AAV exceeds 18M
 
nsacpi said:
Britton got 3 years 13m from a team that expects to be in the playoffs...kimbrel should get more...but I'd be very surprised if his AAV exceeds 18M
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Now...probably not. No contenders have that kind of payroll space left.

Had he came into the offseason with realistic expectations of the market, he could have certainly gotten something like 3/50+ with a 4th option that pushed the guaranteed money a bit higher.
 
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