Extenting Acuna

Southcack77 said:
Maybe I'm colder, maybe I'm unreasonably risk averse. Maybe I'm distrustful of human nature or fate's intentions towards the Braves.

But, I wouldn't do an extension now unless it was on unbelievably good terms. I personally do not think the deal the OP suggested qualifies.

I'm prepared to buy future years from him at more expensive rates if it appears warranted down the road. Or let him walk. Or cash him for prospects. I can live with the risk of losing him seven years from now and with the feeling that you let a bargain get past you.
Click to expand...

I'm personally all for an extension. I certainly get your hesitation, but this is much closer to the Angels signing Trout than the Angels signing Pujols
 
Trout signed a 6 year/144 mil extension still in arb.

6 year/120 with an option to buy a FA year out?
 
I would offer Acuna 9 years 120 million split up as 10 million a year for his first 3 years and 15 million a year for the last 6. Pretty sure that would be a record contract for a player with his service time by a mile so I think a good offer. I dont care how great Acuna is there is always risk. Lets not forget they Heywood debacle. We were ready to give him a blank check at this point in his career. I know 120 million is nothing compared to a huge FA contract but a lot can happen between now and then. Maybe I should offer 20 million a year in his last 3 years, the way salaries are going thats going to be what 15 million is now by that point.
 
Actual numbers with respect to a potential Acuna extension:

Enscheff said:
Acuna is extremely unlikely to sign an extension taking him through his age 30 season, dropping him onto the FA market ahead of his age 31 season. His agent knows his skills are going to be richly rewarded in arbitration, so there is little reason to give the Braves a huge discount.

The Braves already control Acuna's age 21-26 seasons, and assuming the star/superstar path he is likely to take, the upper limit of his cost will be roughly...

2019 (21): $0.75M (pre-arb 2, similar to Bryant)
2020 (22): $1M (pre-arb 3, similar to Bryant)
2021 (23): $10M (arb 1, will flirt with Bryant's 1st year arb record)
2022 (24): $15M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $19M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $23M (arb 4, flirting with Donaldson's 4th year arb record)

That puts the upper bound of Acuna's earnings going year to year at around 6/70. He will then be in line to hit the open market ahead of his age 27 season poised to sign the largest contract in MLB history, and certainly larger than $400M, while making upwards of $40M per season.

So the Braves need to guarantee less than 6/70, while pushing a chunk of the money forward into his pre-arb seasons, and secure 1-2 options at around $30M to make sense.

Your proposed $2M/$4M/$10M/$13M/$16M/$19M comes out to 6/64, and is roughly in the ballpark, and may actually be a bit steep.

The 4/103 tacked onto the end is not realistic at all. Acuna is not going to give up his peak earning years that will see him earning $40M per year.

The most likely extension is something along the lines of 6/60 for his control years, followed by 1-2 options at $30M+. That allows the Braves to save ~$10M per year on a couple FA years, and still allows Acuna to hit the FA market in time for a record setting deal.

The most likely outcome is he does what all recent elite young players are doing and goes year to year so he can hit FA at the youngest age possible. The Braves knew this, which is why they correctly played the service time game with him.
Click to expand...

A realistic extension is likely 7/90 (6 control years plus 1 FA year at $30M) to 8/120 (2 FA years at $30M), perhaps with 1-2 options for $30M+ tacked on the end. Acuna will still want to hit FA before he turns 30. If some of the extra payroll space from this year is used to move part of that contract into 2019/2020, I would be in favor of that tactic.
 
Last edited:
i'd try to go long

opening offer 10 years 170-180M

willing to go up to 200M

he and his agent might prefer something shorter, which we should be willing to explore as well
 
Enscheff said:
Actual numbers with respect to a potential Acuna extension:



A realistic extension is likely 7/90 (6 control years plus 1 FA year at $30M) to 8/120 (2 FA years at $30M), perhaps with 1-2 options for $30M+ tacked on the end. Acuna will still want to hit FA before he turns 30.
Click to expand...

way in for 8/120
 
Enscheff said:
Actual numbers with respect to a potential Acuna extension:



A realistic extension is likely 7/90 (6 control years plus 1 FA year at $30M) to 8/120 (2 FA years at $30M), perhaps with 1-2 options for $30M+ tacked on the end.
Click to expand...

I'd do that today if Acuña would sign it. Particularly if he would agree to the two FA years being team options.
 
nsacpi said:
i'd try to go long

opening offer 10 years 170-180M

willing to go up to 200M

he and his agent might prefer something shorter, which we should be willing to explore as well
Click to expand...

i would also prefer more. you're prob looking at $30M per year, like scheff has, for post-arb numbers.
so if 8/120 is a projection, 9/150 or 10/180. do 10/200 and call it a day (tho as also noted, this is particularly likely).
 
nsacpi said:
i'd try to go long

opening offer 10 years 170-180M

willing to go up to 200M

he and his agent might prefer something shorter, which we should be willing to explore as well
Click to expand...

The last thing Acuna's agent wants to do after seeing how badly players do in the FA market at age 30+ is hit the FA market in this 30s.

Securing a huge payday through his arb years in exchange for 1-2 discounted FA years is the most a competent agent should be willing to give up.

The good news is the recent strife in the FA market may have made players a little more likely to take these discounted extensions. Players have been trending towards going year to year the last 4-5 years, but the last year or so has seen their appetite for risk change a little. Extending Acuna is now more likely than it was less than a year ago.
 
I think we should prioritize extending Acuna through his age 28 season. I agree with Scheff that its unlikely we'd get longer than that. But I think that we could definitely buy out 1-2 of his free agent years in exchange for guaranteeing a little more money in his first 6 years. But its possible that Acuna would rather bet on himself.
 
I think the longest we can get if he'd sign is through his age 28 season. Doubt he signs a deal that would put him at his 30's hitting FA. Best case is getting 1 or 2 FA years bought out.

Still wouldnt be surprised if he pulls a Harper/Machado and just takes it year by year.
 
Acuna's existing deal is about as good a bargain as you could ask for.

I'd be content to ride it for a bit longer while we confirmed what he is or isn't.
 
Southcack77 said:
Acuna's existing deal is about as good a bargain as you could ask for.

I'd be content to ride it for a bit longer while we confirmed what he is or isn't.
Click to expand...

I think this approach would be overly risk averse. Every year that he succeeds and every year of service time he eats up, the price gets higher and eventually you get to a point where it doesn't make sense for him to accept an extension.

For a player of Acuna's age, he is as much of a sure thing as you'll ever see. I just don't think its necessary to take a wait and see approach if the opportunity to lock him in for 7-8 years presents itself. Its easily worth the risk of guaranteeing those early dollars in my mind.

The 8/120 suggestion makes a whole lot of sense for both parties and I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.
 
Yeah what Beanie said. If it could happen, you do it now. If Acuna wins the MVP this year, it's only gonna cost that much more to even try to extend him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top