BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I don't pull the flabbergasted card all that often, but when I read that it took my breath away. Are we sure that Garrett Spain isn't actually Dave Stewart? Anybody seen them in a room at the same time?
Extenting Acuna
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
I don't pull the flabbergasted card all that often, but when I read that it took my breath away. Are we sure that Garrett Spain isn't actually Dave Stewart? Anybody seen them in a room at the same time?
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think all you've done is guaranteed Acuna will be on the team.
For this deal to have much surplus value, Acuna is nearly going to have to set a hall of fame pace.
This is pretty much the only chance the Braves have to extend Acuna unless he turns into a disappointment that we don't care about extending.
His first arb salary will be huge money (nearing or beating $10M), and as soon as he's within a year of that payday there will be zero incentive for him to sign an extension.
The Braves have to decide how much risk they are willing to assume with Acuna this offseason and then live with that decision for the next decade.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
I just hope we don't get into the situation where we don't extend him, then wait too long to trade him, similar to the O's/Machado
If he turns into a 6-8 WAR monster it will be hard to trade him while the contention window is open. The Braves window likely opens and closes with Acuna being in Atlanta.
The O's were dumb because they weren't in contention even with Machado, so keeping him was moronic. The O's are just dumb, period.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Not really, I'm pricing him as a 3 win player in those 4 FA seasons. All he has to do is deliver 4 wins in those years and it will have increased the surplus value.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
My point is this off-season might be our one chance to avoid falling into a Harper/Machado type situation. If he has a 6+ WAR season next year, it becomes very difficult.
AA has to try to extent him this off-season. Maybe it won't be possible to get a deal done. But he has to try. This is our best window to extent him on team friendly terms.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Yeah, that is exactly the goal. To keep Acuna on the team.
And this deal would have a TON of surplus value if it went down this way and Acuna was even half the player that we think he is going to be. The AAV on nsacpi's deal is around 16 million. Acuna would only have to produce 2 WAR per year for that to be worth it.
And this deal would have a TON of surplus value if it went down this way and Acuna was even half the player that we think he is going to be. The AAV on nsacpi's deal is around 16 million. Acuna would only have to produce 2 WAR per year for that to be worth it.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The vast amount of the surplus you are calculating is coming from the first six years of the deal, which the Braves already control for likely less money than this extension proposes to pay him.
This deal offers to pay him 25.75 AAV over seasons 7-10.
So he'll need to put 3 WAR over the balance of those seasons to earn his contract. While an MVP caliber player would certainly provide a good bit of surplus at that price point, it's entirely possible that is a fair pay or an overpay. We just don't know what happens to Acuna between now and then. He might do something to his legs that makes him fat like Matt Kemp for example.
If he's not giving you tons of surplus over years 7-10, the deal isn't really keeping any windows open. It's just keeping him on the team.
I personally would be inclined to wait and see what he actually turns out to be and then I'd look to see down the road if could maybe pay him more of a market rate for his remaining years of control in exchange for an option year or two at a hefty market rate.
That lets a mid-market payroll team have some flexibility in seeing what its roster is going to look like without taking on a huge risk.
If I can't get that, then I can't. I'm willing to trade him or let him go to free agency.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
As has been pointed out before, Acuna did not receive a large bonus in international signing. So he might not be the type to pass up being set financially for life in exchange for giving up a couple of years beyond arbitration.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The question is how to best spend the monies allocated for years 7-10. It is a long ways off. Lots of uncertainty. Lots of things can happen. But if Acuna agrees to what I'm outlining (and this is a big if) then we have to do it. On an expected outcomes basis it is likely to give us a significantly better return than the alternatives.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I disagree that those are particularly team friendly terms and that it is particularly necessary that he be extended.
the Nationals aren't in a bad place because Harper is hitting free agency. They very well may re-sign him. If not, the world will not end. any problem they have with their roster isn't really going to be centered around not having Harper.
The Orioles' problems similarly do not really begin with not having Manny Machado next season.
I can live with losing a really good player.
If the Braves finances are better or their system keeps pumping out players due to good decisions along the way, then maybe they don't have to lose him. We'll see.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Also he had a scary knee injury. And his father has expressed interest. So reason to believe.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Harper has an agent with a philosophy that made it unlikely that he (and Harper) would have agreed to the kind of deal I'm suggesting.
I am ok with losing a really good player too. But I am even more ok with extenting one on team friendly terms if that is possible.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Yeah I don't see how this deal would be anything but team friendly. If Acuna is even a consistent 3-4 WAR player, he'd get paid more on the open market than you're deal because he'd be 26-27. A 25 million AAV would be a steal for Acuna during those years. If he eventually walks that is fine, but I'd much rather guarantee keeping him through his age 30 season if at all possible. I'm more than willing to assume any injury risk if it guarantees us keeping him below market rate for 3 more seasons. If you account for inflation, its possible he could easily eclipse a 40 million AAV on the open market.
I just don't see what you're getting at Southcack. This deal would seem like an obvious steal to me.
The value in this deal is getting a few peak FA years of Acuna without paying $40M per year for his decline seasons.
It is so team friendly there is almost no way Acuna signs something like it. Nobody is getting Acuna's age 28-30 seasons without also taking on the risk of his age 38-40 seasons.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I actually do not believe you are properly factoring in the risk of injury or disappointment.
I think you are just assuming it won’t happen while assuming Acuna is going to be what he’s been for two months for the rest of his career.
If Acuna is a 3 WAR player in years 7-10 he will earn his contract which would not particularly help the Braves.
He’s really got to exceed that significantly to really move the needle.
That's just false. I will go ahead and say that Acuna is going to be a monster bat in his last 20's. Having him on the team even at ~30 million a year will keep the Braves contention window open. I've been on board with this type of deal for awhile now. The point is you are keeping Acuna through his prime years. Paying near market value for that and then cutting them loose is not really an issue. You run into problems if you are the team that signs a 28-30 year old Acuna to a big contract and pay big money for his 35+ year old seasons. That almost guarantees non competitive seasons like you are seeing with the Tigers and Cabrera.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Offer him a version of Trout's contract. If you include his pre-arb, Trout was signed for an 8/146 deal. So honestly I would say that I would offer him an 8/160 contract. Or going to your 10 year old model, 10/200 may get it done.