AA's Failure

I think odds are that AA has money to spend, but is well aware of what his likely budgetary limits are in the short and long term.

I think he is exercising his own judgment as to what is the best approach to winning now and in the long term would be.

I don't think he's looking to stuff money in his pockets because of bonus structures. I don't think he's deliberately lying to the public. I don't think that Liberty or some secret MLB instruction has constrained his ability to sign players to what they have now.

I think things are largely as they have told us they are. Thing is, you have to listen to what they actually said rather than extrapolate what you wanted to hear.

AA is basically doing what nsacpi asked him to do minus Bud Norris. hoarding assets, not giving up anything, relentlessly waiting on value. I think we're about to see the limitations of such a strategy as there is no way of controlling what others do. Consoling yourself that the other teams will regret some of what they've done down the line is small comfort. And eventually, maybe something happens and your window passes before you get your great day of comeuppance.



I think AA probably should have done more small things than he did this offseason. That's my criticism. The big things, I don't really have an issue with. I think he's still very well suited to make big deadline acquisitions if the Braves are in position to do that.

I will say I think there will be very little on the free agent market to help the Braves. If any part of the plan is to spend big on big targets there, I don't see that one working out for Atlanta. Might well be ten teams bidding on Ozuna and nothing else worth mentioning.
 
Liberty doesn’t care if they make a few million or even a hundred million off the Braves. They just want the asset to grow. Our payroll is a direct result of Terry McDork. He controls the finances and he is the one who decided to spend the excess profits towards the debt. He isn’t a dummy and knows he is risking a lot by being so involved in a risky revenue stream. If the Braves fall hard this year it could be disastrous for the long term success.

If revenue falls this year watch what our payroll will be next year.
 
And for those of you who said this was one game relax. No this was being said all winter and spring. I don’t care if we win the next ten games. AA still failed this offseason. He is betting on kids succeeding, guys who are likely hurt not to be hurt and zero regression. He did NOTHING to buy insurance on probably outcomes.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I get that logic but hate that logic. Just keep winning. Don't worry about the opponent or SOS.
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I always hope that. I’m just telling everyone not to freak out when we do not start the season that well. We have a really tough schedule and it could be the reverse of last year. I think we will be fine.
 
striker42 said:
That all depends on how the GM's success is measured. A team owned by a billionaire who sees the club as his toy might measure the GM's success by wins and losses. A corporate owned team, on the other hand, is almost certainly going to judge a GM based on the bottom line.

When a GM of a team owned by a corporation makes terrible decisions, squanders the payroll, and fields a terrible team, the decrease in revenue tends to lead to the GM's firing.

However, if you're fielding a team you know is going to be good enough to keep fans interested, why would a GM spend extra money to push the team over the hump?

The difference in revenue between a 65 win team and an 85 win team is huge. The difference in revenue between an 85 win team and a 92 win team isn't nearly as big.

With that in mind, why would a GM of a team that's got an excellent chance to win between 80 and 85 games spend another $30 million to try to push the team over 90 wins when doing so would cost him a lot of money personally?

AA is almost certainly incentivized to maximize profits. That means spending enough to keep fans interested but stopping before diminishing returns takes over.
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It's the same owner that owned the Braves through the the last 2 GMs and payroll has steadily increased. Why would it suddenly change now?
And I can guarantee you if the Braves don't consistently make the playoffs over the next 4 years (considering the talent we currently have in the majors and minors) AA will be gone. The public outcry from the fans will demand it.

It's very unlikely Liberty is involved much with the Braves operations. It was widely reported the Braves had roughly 40-50 million to spend this off-season and AA spent well over half that amount. If what you said were true, then he's doing things exactly the opposite to accomplish those goals.
 
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bravesfanMatt said:
And for those of you who said this was one game relax. No this was being said all winter and spring. I don’t care if we win the next ten games. AA still failed this offseason. He is betting on kids succeeding, guys who are likely hurt not to be hurt and zero regression. He did NOTHING to buy insurance on probably outcomes.
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you just really need to chill
 
Southcack77 said:
I think odds are that AA has money to spend, but is well aware of what his likely budgetary limits are in the short and long term.

I think he is exercising his own judgment as to what is the best approach to winning now and in the long term would be.

I don't think he's looking to stuff money in his pockets because of bonus structures. I don't think he's deliberately lying to the public. I don't think that Liberty or some secret MLB instruction has constrained his ability to sign players to what they have now.

I think things are largely as they have told us they are. Thing is, you have to listen to what they actually said rather than extrapolate what you wanted to hear.

AA is basically doing what nsacpi asked him to do minus Bud Norris. hoarding assets, not giving up anything, relentlessly waiting on value. I think we're about to see the limitations of such a strategy as there is no way of controlling what others do. Consoling yourself that the other teams will regret some of what they've done down the line is small comfort. And eventually, maybe something happens and your window passes before you get your great day of comeuppance.



I think AA probably should have done more small things than he did this offseason. That's my criticism. The big things, I don't really have an issue with. I think he's still very well suited to make big deadline acquisitions if the Braves are in position to do that.

I will say I think there will be very little on the free agent market to help the Braves. If any part of the plan is to spend big on big targets there, I don't see that one working out for Atlanta. Might well be ten teams bidding on Ozuna and nothing else worth mentioning.
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Going forward I anticipate more of the same kind of approach.

The details might look something like this:

1) Trades for a couple arms for the pen this mid-season. Likely one lefty and one righty. At least one will be under contractual control beyond 2019.

2) Trade for an outfielder such as David Peralta, Wil Myers or Joc Pederson. Could happen mid-season. Could happen next off-season.

3) Pursuit of a free agent catcher such as Cervelli or Grandal next off-season. Neither will have a QO attached. Cervelli could even be a trade target this mid-season.

4) Being open to a move for an established starter such as Kluber or Greinke. But the finances and risk profile have to be reasonable. In the case of someone like Greinke the other team would have to cover part of the contract.

5) Being opportunistic and willing to move in unexpected directions if a value opportunity presents itself. Donaldson will not be the last move under AA where we acquire someone where there is not a big positional need. Likewise, we might trade away someone unexpectedly if another team makes a strong offer.

Enjoy the season folks. The Braves are a contending team. Snit has to earn his paycheck the next week or two due to personnel issues in the pen.
 
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Carp said:
It's the same owner that owned the Braves through the the last 2 GMs and payroll has steadily increased. Why would it suddenly change now?
And I can guarantee you if the Braves don't consistently make the playoffs over the next 4 years (considering the talent we currently have in the majors and minors) AA will be gone. The public outcry from the fans will demand it.

It's very unlikely Liberty is involved much with the Braves operations. It was widely reported the Braves had roughly 40-50 million to spend this off-season and AA spent well over half that amount. If what you said were true, then he's doing things exactly the opposite to accomplish those goals.
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Not at all. If AA spent no money, you'd see revenue tank more than what he saved on payroll as the team would be terrible. The key is to find that sweet spot. Spend enough to keep fans interested and revenues high but stop before diminishing returns sets in and makes the money a financial waste.

If AA led the team to four straight years of missing the playoffs but had record high profits, Liberty would keep him as the GM. What does a media conglomerate in Colorado care about fans in Atlanta so long as those fans keep giving them their money?

If the Braves missed the playoffs four straight years, what would probably happen is you'd see revenue slipping. Fans would lose interest and stop coming to the park. That would get the GM in hot water. That's not an issue this year though. The Braves will probably sell a similar number of tickets if they don't spend another dime as they would if they spent $30 million more. Why waste $30 million for no additional revenue?
 
Camargo, Brantley, Grandal > Donaldson, Mac, Markakis

Donaldson is my favorite player in baseball too. But the first set of players was a realistic outcome with the money we had available. I don’t like beating a dead horse and I know it’s all said and done now but we didn’t pick up one single pitcher this offseason. How is that even remotely forgivable and acceptable?
 
nsacpi said:
but the question we need to ask is this:

is Camargo, Brantley, Grandal > Camargo, Donaldson, McCann, Markakis + about $10M
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I’d still do it and with the 10 million included. We saw Markakis fall on his face the 2nd half and now he’s a year older. I love Donaldson but with his injury history the past 2 years I couldn’t have put all of my eggs in his basket. We literally shut down the offseason after getting Donaldson. Completely unacceptable.
 
striker42 said:
Not at all. If AA spent no money, you'd see revenue tank more than what he saved on payroll as the team would be terrible. The key is to find that sweet spot. Spend enough to keep fans interested and revenues high but stop before diminishing returns sets in and makes the money a financial waste.

If AA led the team to four straight years of missing the playoffs but had record high profits, Liberty would keep him as the GM. What does a media conglomerate in Colorado care about fans in Atlanta so long as those fans keep giving them their money?

If the Braves missed the playoffs four straight years, what would probably happen is you'd see revenue slipping. Fans would lose interest and stop coming to the park. That would get the GM in hot water. That's not an issue this year though. The Braves will probably sell a similar number of tickets if they don't spend another dime as they would if they spent $30 million more. Why waste $30 million for no additional revenue?
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For one, they didn't have 30 million more. It's been widely assumed for awhile now (unless your Mark Bradley) that the Braves had 40-50 million to work with. They spent roughly 30 million, and will likely spend another 5-10 million for mid-season upgrades.

If you don't think AA would be fired after 4 seasons of missing the playoffs with the talent he currently has, then you haven't been paying attention to baseball. And if you don't think Liberty would bend to public outcry, you must not pay attention to basically every sport in America.
 
nsacpi said:
but the question we need to ask is this:

is Camargo, Brantley, Grandal > Camargo, Donaldson, McCann, Markakis + about $10M
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I didn't want Brantley as much as others. My plan when the off-season started was Cutch, Grandal/Ramos, Dietrich, relief help, and re-sign Sanchez (or some other veteran starter like Gio may be). Now obviously it's impossible to know how the market would play out for each of these guys, but this was very doable.
 
Carp said:
For one, they didn't have 30 million more. It's been widely assumed for awhile now (unless your Mark Bradley) that the Braves had 40-50 million to work with. They spent roughly 30 million, and will likely spend another 5-10 million for mid-season upgrades.

If you don't think AA would be fired after 4 seasons of missing the playoffs with the talent he currently has, then you haven't been paying attention to baseball. And if you don't think Liberty would bend to public outcry, you must not pay attention to basically every sport in America.
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Four seasons of failure wouldn't cause AA to be fired. Four seasons of failure might cause fan dissatisfaction that results is decreases in revenue. That decrease would cause AA to be fired. If the fans hated AA, the product on the field was terrible, and yet every game was a sellout, AA would keep his job.

However, the way fans tend to express dissatisfaction with a team is by not giving the team money. So failure would almost certainly lead to less revenue and thus to AA's firing.

Fan outcry is only relevant if it threatens the money. Liberty does not care at all if you're happy or not except as far as it impacts your willingness to give them money. When teams bow to fan outcry it is almost always because they're afraid of the drop in revenue fan dissatisfaction will cause. If there's no risk to revenue, there's no placation.
 
Also, why haven't we signed Ryan Madson? Seems like a pretty obvious move on a minor league at this point (unless he's demanding a major league deal).
 
nsacpi said:
Actually less so than is typical of similar threads. What happened with Carle and Jackson yesterday did crystalize some concerns that are entirely valid.
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It was said in the offseason thread when freeman was cut, that we were keeping Jackson over Freeman was dumb. That actually was my first comment on the subject. It was something known.

Also Watch what happens when we cut Duvall too. Also something we all saw coming. I can’t wait for the back lash when position guys start getting dinged up. A lineup with Duvall/raffy/and Culberson all starting will be fun. All things that could have been addressed this offseason but wasn’t.
 
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