Fried's new pitch

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
We have seen Fried debut a new pitch in mid-80s that looks good. Turns out it's a slider, and he threw it twice last night. Let's see how good of a pitch that thing is...

First, let's do a sanity check on the other stuff he threw last night, the FA and CU.

FA: Velo = 95.0 mph (Grade 61.8), X-Mov = -1.1" (Grade 27.1), Z-Mov = 7.2" (Grade 33.9)

This is still the same flat and straight FA with plus velocity. The lack of movement on this pitch will always make it less effective than the velocity suggests.

CU: Velo = 76.3 mph (Grade 41.7), X-Mov = -4.5" (Grade 50.9), Z-Mov = -13.8" (Grade Broken)

Yup, the downer CU somehow got even better. Maybe he just snapped off 3 doozies last night, but this is quite possibly the premier 12-6 CU in the game today. It is Zito-like...or better.

SL: Velo = 83.4 mph (Grade 44.9), X-Mov = -8.6" (Grade 80), Z-Mov = -3.7" (Grade 74.8)

Look...he only threw 2 of them, but this movement data is nasty, and there's no other way to describe this Ohtani-like SL. The limited data suggests Fried just added another elite breaking pitch with a completely different shape than his CU.

My knock on Fried has always been the lack of movement on his FA, but with what appear to be 2 elite breaking pitches, it may not matter. Keep in mind Fried also has an above average CH in his pocket that moves exactly opposite to his SL.

Suddenly Fried is a guy with 2 elite breaking balls, an above average CH, and a ~40 FA that grades out as barely usable...but it doesn't matter because the breaking stuff is sooooo (yes, 5 o's) good.

Fried was the guy I most wanted to see data on, and even though he still hasn't added the SI, it may not matter. These breaking balls plus the presence of a good CH means he is a clear 2-3 option if the control plays (that's 3-4 fWAR). If he adds the 50/60 SI I think he can, and the control plays...he's the best SP in the organization.

Fried is not a guy who should be throwing mop up innings in blowout losses, or traded for MadBum...that's for sure. The possibility of these types of repertoire tweaks is why I've always been so hesitant to include Fried in trades.
 
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Genuine question - when a guy has multiple very good breaking balls, does it lessen the need somewhat for movement on the fastball? Obviously his fastball will never be above average if it's that flat, but is it possible that it's a 40 pitch that in his repertoire acts more like a 45-50 because of the velocity?
 
msstate7 said:
How effective is his change if he throws mostly off speed?
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It would be very effective. It moves different. Go up against fried as a RHH. You now have to look for a harder slider that breaks down and away. Or the hammer curve that looks like a high heater until it just drops straight down. Or is he going to toss a change that looks straight but then bites down and in on you. Our is he just going to gas me up and I won’t have time to react because of all his other garbage.
 
Having to think about another offspeed path makes his fastball that much more effective.
 
it's interesting that he has two breaking pitches that move a ton but he can't get movement on his fastball.
 
Bravesfannchar said:
Great stuff, man!

Not that it really matters, but I’m trying to learn... would this profile project as a #2 starter or what?
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looks like he said that if he can control the pithces well enough, he's a 3-4 win guy. which yes i believe would be a 2.
 
Thanks, Super.

This stuff is always extremely interesting.

Enscheff,

Are you going to be doing these on Wright / Wilson, when you get time, after their starts?
 
Bravesfannchar said:
Great stuff, man!

Not that it really matters, but I’m trying to learn... would this profile project as a #2 starter or what?
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It’s pretty hard to give a concrete answer to this, but assuming average-ish control, pitchers are usually grouped roughly as:

#1 (5+ WAR, CYA candidate): 1-2 pitches that are 70/80, 1-2 other plus pitches
#2 (~4 WAR, still TOR): 2 pitches that are 60/70, 1-2 other above average pitches
#3 (~3 WAR): 1-2 pitches that are 60+, 1-2 other average or better pitches
#4 (~2 WAR, average SP): 2-3 pitches that are 50/60, 1-2 other usable pitches
#5 (~1 WAR): couple average pitches with durability to throw 75 pitches in a game

Of course guys with excellent control move up, and guys with poor control move down. Someone like Keuchel was a 5+ win guy based on excellent control and an elite breaking ball, while Newk has #2 stuff, but the control makes him a #4 overall (why I call him a “stuff #4”). Someone like Scherzer doesn’t have any elite pitches, but his control over several plus pitches makes him great.

It’s rare for guys to be really good without a good FA/SI foundation, but it certainly does happen.
 
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Bravesfannchar said:
Thanks, Super.

This stuff is always extremely interesting.

Enscheff,

Are you going to be doing these on Wright / Wilson, when you get time, after their starts?
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Wright's stuff is looked at here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8626

You can likely find similar data on Wilson in the GDT for his debut. He's more along the lines of a generic #4 with several 50/60 pitches.

Since these guys are young I'll keep tabs on their stuff, but 1 game's data isn't really enough to draw conclusions.

I only posted about Fried because we knew the SL was a new pitch, and there wasn't anything else to talk about on an off day 1 game into the season.
 
Appreciate it.

That makes perfect sense. I remember those threads and was just wonderingly purely based on the Fried update. Hopefully, both perform and stay in the big leagues long enough to get a larger sample size.
 
Enscheff said:
Wright's stuff is looked at here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8626

You can likely find similar data on Wilson in the GDT for his debut. He's more along the lines of a generic #4 with several 50/60 pitches.

Since these guys are young I'll keep tabs on their stuff, but 1 game's data isn't really enough to draw conclusions.

I only posted about Fried because we knew the SL was a new pitch, and there wasn't anything else to talk about on an off day 1 game into the season.
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Wilson is one I want to see more data on. He's one of our few prospects who put up decent K numbers without control being an issue. I'm hoping he was overthrowing in his one start causing him to lose movement on his stuff. Not impossible but it's only a hope at this point.

Have you ever done one of these writeups for Soroka? He had a larger data set than either Wright or Wilson last year.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
It would be very effective. It moves different. Go up against fried as a RHH. You now have to look for a harder slider that breaks down and away. Or the hammer curve that looks like a high heater until it just drops straight down. Or is he going to toss a change that looks straight but then bites down and in on you. Our is he just going to gas me up and I won’t have time to react because of all his other garbage.
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Glavine made a living off RHH with his change. Just looked it up and a rare guy with even splits (in terms of OPSa) against RHH and LHH. I think the key with the fastball--even if it's flat--is if he can locate it for quality strikes in the zone in the mid-90s, he makes a guesser out of the hitter.
 
striker42 said:
Wilson is one I want to see more data on. He's one of our few prospects who put up decent K numbers without control being an issue. I'm hoping he was overthrowing in his one start causing him to lose movement on his stuff. Not impossible but it's only a hope at this point.

Have you ever done one of these writeups for Soroka? He had a larger data set than either Wright or Wilson last year.
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I looked at his stuff after his first start here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8073&page=5&p=487820#post487820

Might be useful to take a look at his stuff based on the rest of his season, but the shoulder injury makes the data less meaningful.
 
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