Extending Albies

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
Now that Acuna is locked up, it stands to reason Albies could be next. Here is a breakdown of what he will potentially earn during the rest of his team control:

Enscheff said:
Albies is a potential star-level player, even better than Swanson. Davenport projects him to produce as follows from 2017-2022:

2017 (20): .269 .329 .392 (.721 OPS), 2.6 WAR (0.8-0.9 WAR rest of season)
2018 (21): .280 .340 .404 (.744 OPS), 26 SBs, 3.2 WAR
2019 (22): .283 .344 .408 (.752 OPS), 27 SBs, 3.5 WAR
2020 (23): .287 .351 .424 (.775 OPS), 25 SBs, 3.9 WAR
2021 (24): .288 .358 .428 (.786 OPS), 25 SBs, 4.2 WAR
2022 (25): .289 .355 .429 (.784 OPS), 23 SBs, 4.0 WAR

We can safely project another couple ~4 WAR seasons in 2023/2024 when Albies is 26/27 years old and entering his peak years. His speed and defense will begin to decline at that age, but power tends to tick up to compensate.

Promoting him now gives the Braves the following years of control and projected salaries (based off Dee Gordon's figures plus inflation):

2017 (pre-arb): $0.2M
2018 (pre-arb): $0.5M
2019 (pre-arb): $0.5M
2020 (pre-arb): $0.5M
2021 (arb 1): $3M
2022 (arb 2): $5M
2023 (arb 3): $9M

Total: $18.7M
WAR produced: 23.7
Surplus value: $218.3M
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So the Braves are looking at something like $15M-$20M to lock him up through his control years and age 26, and then buying 1-2 FA years for around $12M each...and apparently super cheap options after that since that's the value voodoo magic AA is able to work on young stars.
 
IMO Albies needs to sign.

He didn't sign for much. His primary tool is speed and that is the first thing to go with age or injury. His best buddy just signed. All signs point to this being a good move for both sides.
 
A couple thoughts I've had on Albies, both of which I've held since the end of last season:

1) If his two halves last year were flipped, it would be a lot easier to reach an agreement with him on what a fair contract might be. The weak 2nd half introduces some uncertainty that serves as a hurdle to agreeing on his value.

2) It made sense to sign Acuna first. Partly because he is more valuable. Partly because he is younger and further away from free agency, which I believe makes a long-term deal easier to negotiate.

With the Acuna deal in place, I think something similar (minus 10-20%) would be a very good deal for Albies (from the club's perspective). I don't think we can offer him more without some problems cropping up. I'm fine with making him an offer now. But in light of point 1 above, I think something next off-season might be more likely. Or maybe in a month or two if he shows he is putting the problems he had in the second half behind him.
 
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You know that Albies has to love the idea of playing with Acuna for another decade, but the money obviously has to be right. I think the numbers you guys have laid out would be my offer.
 
nsacpi said:
A couple thoughts I've had on Albies, both of which I've held since the end of last season:

1) If his two halves last year were flipped, it would be a lot easier to reach an agreement with him on what a fair contract might be. The weak 2nd half introduces some uncertainty that serves as a hurdle to agreeing on his value.

2) It made sense to sign Acuna first. Partly because he is more valuable. Partly because he is younger and further away from free agency, which I believe makes a long-term deal easier to negotiate.

With the Acuna deal in place, I think something similar (minus 10-20%) would be a very good deal for Albies (from the club's perspective). I don't think we can offer him more without some problems cropping up. I'm fine with making him an offer now. But in light of point 1 above, I think something next off-season might be more likely. Or maybe in a month or two if he shows he is putting the problems he had in the second half behind him.
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Wait, you think and Albies extension would come in around 10%-20% less than the Acuna extension?
 
Enscheff said:
Wait, you think and Albies extension would come in around 10%-20% less than the Acuna extension?
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Yes. Albies was a 3.8 WAR player last year (though with a much weaker second half). Before the Acuna deal, I would have said no way he signs for something like that. Now I think we should offer 20% less than what we offered Acuna (for the equivalent years, an adjustment needs to be made because Albies is one year closer to free agency). Ultimately, we should be able to sign him for 10% less.

Albies' agent could well say screw that to any attempt to use the Acuna contract as a benchmark. We'll have to see. But I think AA should try to use the Acuna precedent as leverage.

It's also possible that we would do something shorter. An 8-year deal would buy out 3 of Albies' free agent years. But whatever the length the pricing for equivalent year should start out about 20% less what Acuna signed for and my guess is his agent will bargain that up some. It makes sense if you consider Acuna a 5 win player and Albies a 4 win player. Albies should be about 80% of Acuna's prices for equivalent years. But because the Acuna price is such a bargain that's probably not realistic.
 
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nsacpi said:
Yes. Albies was a 3.8 WAR player last year (though with a much weaker second half). Before the Acuna deal, I would have said no way he signs for something like that. Now I think we should offer 20% less than what we offered Acuna (for the equivalent years, an adjustment needs to be made because Albies is one year closer to free agency). Ultimately, we should be able to sign him for 10% less.

Albies' agent could well say screw that to any attempt to use the Acuna contract as a benchmark. We'll have to see. But I think AA should try to use the Acuna precedent as leverage.
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These extensions are based on projecting arbitration salaries, not WAR. Players like Albies aren’t paid anywhere near what players like Acuna are paid in arbitration. Acuna was looking at Bryant money, while Albies will be looking at Dee Gordon money plus inflation.

It should cost about $15M-$20M to buy out the rest of Albies control years, then like $15M+ per FA season.

And Albies extension is much closer to $50 than $100M. He isn’t really comparable to Acuna at all as far as extensions are concerned.

I nailed the price for an Acuna extension, so I’m confident I have a pretty good handle on the cost of an Albies extension.
 
Enscheff said:
These extensions are based on projecting arbitration salaries, not WAR. Players like Albies aren’t paid anywhere near what players like Acuna are paid in arbitration.
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Depends on whether Albies continues to be a 20+ home run hitter. That's why I say the second half of last year makes it difficult to reach agreement on his value. I think the Braves might well approach him in May. If he has 5 or more home runs in April, then you would have to think he will get paid for that power in arbitration. Both the team and his agent have to sort that out.
 
nsacpi said:
Yes. Albies was a 3.8 WAR player last year (though with a much weaker second half). Before the Acuna deal, I would have said no way he signs for something like that. Now I think we should offer 20% less than what we offered Acuna (for the equivalent years, an adjustment needs to be made because Albies is one year closer to free agency). Ultimately, we should be able to sign him for 10% less.

Albies' agent could well say screw that to any attempt to use the Acuna contract as a benchmark. We'll have to see. But I think AA should try to use the Acuna precedent as leverage.

It's also possible that we would do something shorter. An 8-year deal would buy out 3 of Albies' free agent years. But whatever the length the pricing for equivalent year should start out about 20% less what Acuna signed for and my guess is his agent will bargain that up some. It makes sense if you consider Acuna a 5 win player and Albies a 4 win player. Albies should be about 80% of Acuna's prices for equivalent years. But because the Acuna price is such a bargain that's probably not realistic.
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Why not also use it to add an additional option, tying the two of them together for the same period? Given how much they're Frick-and-Frack, you'd think the lure of staying together through Acuna's entire deal might hold a little weight with Ozzie.
 
nsacpi said:
Depends on whether Albies continues to be a 20+ home run hitter. That's why I say the second half of last year makes it difficult to reach agreement on his value. I think the Braves might well approach him in May. If he has 5 or more home runs in April, then you would have to think he will get paid for that power in arbitration. Both the team and his agent have to sort that out.
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So we still don’t understand how exit velocities correlate to HR output?
 
nsacpi said:
Maybe but you asserted pretty strongly Acuna would not agree to any such deal.

"Acuna is extremely unlikely to sign an extension taking him through his age 30 season."

Your first sentence in your first post in this thread.

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8641
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I said it was unlikely, and it was. That’s why we are all so happy that the options happened.

Fact of the matter is the numbers I listed were almost spot on while you stated it would take $165M.

My Albies numbers are probably also spot on. Your Albies numbers are probably overestimated by about as much as your Acuna numbers were.
 
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clvclv said:
Why not also use it to add an additional option, tying the two of them together for the same period? Given how much they're Frick-and-Frack, you'd think the lure of staying together through Acuna's entire deal might hold a little weight with Ozzie.
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It will depend on the player and his agent. Maybe there will some appeal having a deal exactly the same length as Acuna's. But I wouldn't assume that. No agent will be as dumb as Acuna's agent. I don't know who Albies agent is. Maybe we will get lucky and he will also be represented by Salazar.
 
Enscheff said:
These extensions are based on projecting arbitration salaries, not WAR. Players like Albies aren’t paid anywhere near what players like Acuna are paid in arbitration. Acuna was looking at Bryant money, while Albies will be looking at Dee Gordon money plus inflation.

It should cost about $15M-$20M to buy out the rest of Albies control years, then like $15M+ per FA season.

And Albies extension is much closer to $50 than $100M. He isn’t really comparable to Acuna at all as far as extensions are concerned.

I nailed the price for an Acuna extension, so I’m confident I have a pretty good handle on the cost of an Albies extension.
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1st number I was thinking of was 6/75.
 
Carp said:
1st number I was thinking of was 6/75.
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I think that's the ceiling.

Giving him $20M for his control years, and $30M for 2 FA years, then a $10M buyout on a $15M option brings the guarantee to $60M, with potential for something like $80M if the Braves get 2 options at the end like they did with Acuna.
 
If the stats happened, they happened, even if the first half was a fluke with the power because the agent would be likely to focus on what happened and not what is probable to happen in the future. But I think the holdup there will really be on the Braves side, they likely want to see more of a sample size from lowered hands on the left side Albies before deciding if they want to try to commit to a long-term deal. If he keeps looking good on that side again, I have to think he’ll be approached during this season and if I had to take a stab at it, I think I would...probably say 6/50 with 2 option years of 10-12 million?

His agent is SportsMeter by the way, for future reference.
 
Enscheff said:
I said it was unlikely, and it was. That’s why we are all so happy that the options happened.

Fact of the matter is the numbers I listed were almost spot on while you stated it would take $165M.

My Albies numbers are probably also spot on. Your Albies numbers are probably overestimated by about as much as your Acuna numbers were.
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We were discussing buying out FAyears at something like 24-25 with the question being whether they would be player options rather than the 17m team options he sold.

That’s not particularly close at all. This deal is considerably less than anyone had projected.
 
Southcack77 said:
We were discussing buying out FAyears at something like 24-25 with the question being whether they would be player options rather than the 17m team options he sold.

That’s not particularly close at all. This deal is considerably less than anyone had projected.
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The first 2 FA years were bought out at the expected rates.

The first 8 years of the deal are at the expected rates.

The odd options tacked on at the end to get the total guarantee over $100M is the part nobody saw coming. It’s also the part everyone supplying an informed take agrees makes it a bad deal for Acuna.
 
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