GDT 4/12 - The Wright attacks New York....

H

Hulavol

Well-known member
1. Ender Inciarte (L) CF
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
3. F. Freeman (L) 1B
4. R. Acuna (R) LF
5. Nick Markakis (L) RF
6. Dansby Swanson (R) SS
7. Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
8. Tyler Flowers (R) C
9. Kyle Wright (R) P
 
Enscheff said:
Right. Someone needs to let us know when he’s hot though, preferably before he is due to cool off.
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How long do we give a sub .200 hitter more ABs than FF and Acuna. We all know he is a good hitter. Then again we all knew Uggla was a good hitter, until he wasn’t. I never said yank him from the lineup. But maybe a move can getting him going.
 
JD's average exit velocity and average launch angle on FBs/LDs, and HR% for the last 5 years:

2015: 96.4 mph, 25.8*, 21.8%
2016: 97.6 mph, 26.2*, 19.8%
2017: 96.9 mph, 27.5*, 25.6%
2018: 96.3 mph, 26.7*, 17.0%
2019: 99.3 mph, 23.5*, 0.0%

I don't know what everyone else sees, but I put the bit of data I consider the obvious outlier in bold.

If JD had his normal HR rate of ~20%, he would have 2-3 HRs by now. Adding just 2 HRs that he "deserves" to his current slash line of .186/.314/.256 results in a slash line of .232/.353/.442. If JD had a .795 OPS right now, nobody would be saying anything about him other than how nice it was to have him in the lineup.

JD will be fine (barring health), and this is why modern day FOs don't make decisions based on the results of 51 PAs.
 
Enscheff said:
JD's average exit velocity and average launch angle on FBs/LDs, and HR% for the last 5 years:

2015: 96.4 mph, 25.8*, 21.8%
2016: 97.6 mph, 26.2*, 19.8%
2017: 96.9 mph, 27.5*, 25.6%
2018: 96.3 mph, 26.7*, 17.0%
2019: 99.3 mph, 23.5*, 0.0%

I don't know what everyone else sees, but I put the bit of data I consider the obvious outlier in bold.

If JD had his normal HR rate of ~20%, he would have 2-3 HRs by now. Adding just 2 HRs that he "deserves" to his current slash line of .186/.314/.256 results in a slash line of .232/.353/.442. If JD had a .795 OPS right now, nobody would be saying anything about him other than how nice it was to have him in the lineup.

JD will be fine (barring health), and this is why modern day FOs don't make decisions based on the results of 51 PAs.
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Any concerns on the launch angle being a little lower? Can this small of a sample size mean that’s likely a fluke?
 
CJ9 said:
Any concerns on the launch angle being a little lower? Can this small of a sample size mean that’s likely a fluke?
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I think something is clearly a bit out of whack, and it's likely due to the lack of ST PAs. I wouldn't expect it to last much longer though. JD appears to healthy and is the ball as hard as ever with the same plate discipline he's had for years.
 
Enscheff said:
I think something is clearly a bit out of whack, and it's likely due to the lack of ST PAs. I wouldn't expect it to last much longer though. JD appears to healthy and is the ball as hard as ever with the same plate discipline he's had for years.
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Yeah I'm expecting JD's number to start normalizing any day now. I'm actually really impressed that this offense has done so well without him really hitting all that well. Once he gets going its gonna be a tremendous boost.
 
A quick look at Acuna's data (not results), shows incredibly encouraging signs early.

Here are the 3 players over the last 3 years to have a 15%+ BB rate, less than 20% K rate, and a HR/FB rate of 20%+:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/s...,K%|lt|0.2|-0.99,HR/FB|gt|0.2|-0.99,PA|gt|500

That's a worst case .881 OPS with a .271 BABIP, and ~1.000 OPS with better BABIP luck.

The sample size is still a bit small to look at K and BB rates, but Acuna is looking like a legit 1.000 OPS hitter early in 2019. He probably should be hitting #2 with JD hitting #4, but that was something we all expected to be the case before this season even started.
 
Enscheff said:
A quick look at Acuna's data (not results), shows incredibly encouraging signs early.

Here are the 3 players over the last 3 years to have a 15%+ BB rate, less than 20% K rate, and a HR/FB rate of 20%+:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/s...,K%|lt|0.2|-0.99,HR/FB|gt|0.2|-0.99,PA|gt|500

That's a worst case .881 OPS with a .271 BABIP, and ~1.000 OPS with better BABIP luck.

The sample size is still a bit small to look at K and BB rates, but Acuna is looking like a legit 1.000 OPS hitter early in 2019. He probably should be hitting #2 with JD hitting #4, but that was something we all expected to be the case before this season even started.
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Acuna is going to be viewed as one of the top 5 players in baseball by the end of the year. Right up there in that 2nd tier behind Trout with Mookie, Machado, and a few others. He is a really really really special player.

I'm very interested to see if Vlad will live up to the hype in the same way that Acuna did last year because there is even more hype surrounding that guy.
 
Gonna be very interesting to see Wright tonight now that he's gotten a lot of positive press.. and has to be feeling some pressure knowing Folty and Soroka are coming...
 
Weather radar looking good.... small chance of a stray shower... but overall despite the clouds, lookin' good!
 
Slippyjms said:
Can we all agree Inciarte shouldn’t be leading off over Albies?
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Again...no modern competent FO makes these decisions based on 50 PAs...

Inciarte was a perfectly good lead off option vs RHP when his pull/center/oppo batted ball profile was fairly close to 33/33/33. Spraying the ball around like that allowed him to maintain a ~.330 BABIP, and produce a ~.350 OBP.

He then started pulling the ball in 2018 (40%), and predictably saw his BABIP (.293) and OBP (.325) drop as a result.

This year, he is pulling the ball even more (56%), and his BABIP (.207) and OBP (.289) have predictably cratered as a result.

Is 56% pull Inciarte the new deal, or does he just need to iron out a few things? I don't think 50 PAs is enough to say so either way, but I lean towards it being something he should be able to correct.

Wanting to move Albies to the leadoff spot after 40 PAs vs RHP is a little premature as well. Again, intelligent modern FOs don't make these decisions based on 40 PAs. Those are moves made by dinosaur leadership, and ignorant fans.

Ultimately, I think Albies/Acuna end up being the 1/2 hitters long term (perhaps pretty soon), but that's not a decision that can be made based on 40-50 PAs.
 
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