2014 Projections for Our Internal Second Base Candidates
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Too pessimistic on Uggla and on Tommy's power personally, though not by much on the latter.
What baffles me though is you think that Ramiro Pena is gonna have an iso of .130 when his entire major and minor league career back to 2006 he's had an iso over .100 2 times, 2011 in AAA and last year, both were 50 game pretty small samples. Meanwhile Tommy has never had an iso (although he doesn't have a large sample base like Pena) below .130 and you have his iso at .085. Not saying either prediction is wrong, cause in the end know one knows but I think those 2 will have much closer power numbers based on their history.
I won't bother with T-Pas because I honestly don't know what to expect from him. I thought he'd hit more when he was coming through the minors for the opposite reason people are cautious with Tommy (he produced well for his age) so eff it.
If I had to guess on them, I'd go
Tommy .280/.340/.380 - I'll stay on the pessimistic side for his rookie season.
Pena .250/.290/.350
Uggla .220/.330/.400
Elliot - turd
I think of our 2B options Uggla still will be the best hitter in 2014, but not by enough to not get Tommy some playing time. If Uggla tears it up in ST I'd let him start the season and let him sink or swim, if he swims good for us, we can trade him off after that year for something, if he sinks we waste a little bit of time but do buy another year of cheap team control of Tommy.
What baffles me though is you think that Ramiro Pena is gonna have an iso of .130 when his entire major and minor league career back to 2006 he's had an iso over .100 2 times, 2011 in AAA and last year, both were 50 game pretty small samples. Meanwhile Tommy has never had an iso (although he doesn't have a large sample base like Pena) below .130 and you have his iso at .085. Not saying either prediction is wrong, cause in the end know one knows but I think those 2 will have much closer power numbers based on their history.
I won't bother with T-Pas because I honestly don't know what to expect from him. I thought he'd hit more when he was coming through the minors for the opposite reason people are cautious with Tommy (he produced well for his age) so eff it.
If I had to guess on them, I'd go
Tommy .280/.340/.380 - I'll stay on the pessimistic side for his rookie season.
Pena .250/.290/.350
Uggla .220/.330/.400
Elliot - turd
I think of our 2B options Uggla still will be the best hitter in 2014, but not by enough to not get Tommy some playing time. If Uggla tears it up in ST I'd let him start the season and let him sink or swim, if he swims good for us, we can trade him off after that year for something, if he sinks we waste a little bit of time but do buy another year of cheap team control of Tommy.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Humor us with some numbers for Uggla and the others.
You're telling nsacpi he's being too pessimistic on LaStella's slugging, so you give LaStella a slugging % .005 points higher and say you're going to stay on the pessimistic side.
What?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He was saying I was too pessimistic on the ISO not the slugging. It all fits together. He has a lower OBP but higher slugging. ISO accounts for the difference between the two.
His first sentence says you're too pessimistic on his slugging. You're supposed to be on my team here buddy.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He says I'm too pessimistic on power, by which he means ISO. Hey, this is a rare opportunity to be kind to zito. I feel guilty for all the times I bash him re Hanson-Medlen.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I'd say you are too high on Pena, but I think you're in the realistic range for the rest with the caveat that we simply don't know about Uggla at all, which makes it almost impossible to provide any projection. I think he'd be .750 at the highest and I base that on a pattern of decline that was already present and not the debacle that was 2013 for Beer Can Dan.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I know I'm more bullish on Pena than most. The reason is that I don't think his 2013 performance is entirely a fluke. I think there is some genuine improvement there. Some players are late bloomers (he's the same age as Matt Carpenter who also had a big improvement but from a higher base in 2013). I'm inclined to give some weight to his 2013 numbers because they are backed up by other data. He had a really fine spring training and a very good Mexican Winter League performances. I know spring training and winter league can be misleading. But he had 211 ABs in winter league, 50 ABs in spring training and 97 regular season ABs. I'd love to have a larger sample, but what he did last year should not be dismissed.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
what offensive numbers would you expect from external alternatives such as kinsler, Kendrick and phillips
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I agree. I just see him as being a LHH version of Pastornicky. Pena's power numbers in his abbreviated 2013 are what surprised me. Nice little uptick and he's still only 28. Valuable utility guy if nothing else.
Kinsler has proven to be a 750-800 OPS (or better) hitter with above average defense.
Kendrick has proven to be a 750-800 OPS hitter with slightly above average defense.
Phillips has proven to be a 750-800 OPS hitter with GG level defense.
LaStella has proven that he can hit a little in the minors while being advanced a bit in age for the competition, but is so bad defensively the Braves would have rather started EJ in the NLDS instead of letting LaStella sniff the MLB field in garbage time. Pena has proven he can be a utility guy, and he popped a couple HRs while swinging LHed last year (remember when Bourn got into a few HRs early last year and everyone on this board thought he suddenly found his "power stroke"?). Pastor has proven that he can't play SS, and has compiled a 619 OPS in ~200 MLB PAs. Uggla proved he can no longer hit a baseball, and never could field the position anyways.
But yeah, let's go ahead and let those guys fight it out for playing time at 2B. That is a tremendous Plan A for a WS contender with ~$15M to spend this offseason, and a very shakey player already penciled in to play CF. Why bother fixing 1 of the 2 glaring holes on the field from last season when we can just let a bunch of mediocre players battle it out and simply start the least crappy one of them?
Not after what we saw in the second half.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think your projections for the external options look reasonable. I also think it is reasonable to look at the cost of those options relative to the internal options. A cost-benefit analysis.
I would be worried about Kinslers history of doing much better in Texas than on the road.
I like Kendrick for many reasons but he is going to cost a top prospect and I would rather not trade a top prospect when we have a realistic internal option even though he is unproven.
I like Kendrick for many reasons but he is going to cost a top prospect and I would rather not trade a top prospect when we have a realistic internal option even though he is unproven.
Absolutely no way Uggla can be on our roster in ST.