2014 Projections for Our Internal Second Base Candidates

nsacpi said:
I think your projections for the external options look reasonable. I also think it is reasonable to look at the cost of those options relative to the internal options. A cost-benefit analysis.
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Right. The cost is using up money that is available.

Again with the insane over-sabermetric thinking. All wins are NOT created equally, and are not valued equally. For a WS contender looking to gain homefield advantage through the playoffs, 1 extra win could be worth millions. Did we already forget how close the race was between the Cards and Braves this year? Here's a reminder: the Braves lost by 1 game.

A 1 WAR player at league minimum is far less valuable to a WS contender than a 3-4 WAR player at $10M. I am 100% certain you understand the concept of concentrating WAR into single players for championship caliber teams, which this club certainly qualifies.
 
Enscheff said:
Right. The cost is using up money that is available.

Again with the insane over-sabermetric thinking. All wins are NOT created equally, and are not valued equally. For a WS contender looking to gain homefield advantage through the playoffs, 1 extra win could be worth millions. Did we already forget how close the race was between the Cards and Braves this year? Here's a reminder: the Braves lost by 1 game.

A 1 WAR player at league minimum is far less valuable to a WS contender than a 3-4 WAR player at $10M. I am 100% certain you understand the concept of concentrating WAR into single players for championship caliber teams, which this club certainly qualifies.
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I wish Fredi understood it and Im not a Fredi hater. I will never never understand the Kameron Loe start during the run for HFA>
 
Some of my optimistic guesses

La Stella .266/.305/.699

Pena .270/.315/.699

Pastornicky .240/.315/.670

Uggla .165/.299/.620

Elliot Johnson .200/.260/.579
 
Here's another question. If you had some degree of confidence that one of the internal options could give you a .700 OPS or better, would you prefer the internal option or trading for an external option such as Kendrick, Phillips or Kinsler.
 
Pena did very well vs RH pitching. A platoon of Pena/Pastornicky vs RH/LH pitching might be exactly how Wren has to approach spring training.

If Uggs money has to come off the books as bad debt, it's unlikely Wren will have much room to wiggle. Pastornicky and Pena will cost the braves 1/1.5 million at best. Both can also give us a leadoff option....dropping Heyward to a more natural 2 spot in the lineup. Either could also slot in the 7th/8th spot and allow you to put Schafer or possibly even BJ in the leadoff spot.
 
Kendrick's contract is pretty fair.

It really depends on how much it would cost for him.

If we can dump Uggla, what would it cost for him.

Hale, LaStella, Medlen?!?!

Not all 3, but he would be a good target if they arent sold on LaStella.
 
nsacpi said:
Here's another question. If you had some degree of confidence that one of the internal options could give you a .700 OPS or better, would you prefer the internal option or trading for an external option such as Kendrick, Phillips or Kinsler.
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I wouldnt mind Kendrick if we can keep LaStella in the process.

Kinsler/BP are owed too much money.

No idea what it would cost, probably some pitching, Medlen straight up?
 
Gary82 said:
Some of my optimistic guesses

La Stella .266/.305/.699

Pena .270/.315/.699

Pastornicky .240/.315/.670

Uggla .165/.299/.620

Elliot Johnson .200/.260/.579
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Impressive slugging all around. A bit optimistic. :Alone:
 
nsacpi said:
Here's another question. If you had some degree of confidence that one of the internal options could give you a .700 OPS or better, would you prefer the internal option or trading for an external option such as Kendrick, Phillips or Kinsler.
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That's an easy one, internal, internal, internal. La Stella will do that as a floor.
 
skillet said:
That's an easy one, internal, internal, internal. La Stella will do that as a floor.
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Agree. I think it is especially the case with Phillips and Kinsler. Phillips has put up an OPS of .750 and .706 the past two years. He will be 33 in 2014. He is going to 12.5M/year for the next four years. He has been playing in a hitters park. Kinsler has put up OPS of .749 and .757 the past two years. He will be 32 in 2014. He is going to make 15.5M/year over the next four years. He also plays in a hitters park. I don't think I would trade La Stella for either of those two.

Kendrick is a different matter. He is younger, cheaper, has a shorter contract and plays in a fairly neutral ballpark. I would trade La Stella for him. In that trade we gain over the first two years but obviously lose afterward. I would be willing to do it in part because imo Peraza is our long-term guy at second and he should be close to being ready just as Kendrick's contract expires.
 
Look at Kinslers road splits for the last 4 years. They are ugly ugly ugly. Stay away from Kinsler.

The only rasonable option is Kendrick and he is going to cost more than any of us think. I bet they ask for Sims and in that case NO NO NO NO NO!
 
thethe said:
Look at Kinslers road splits for the last 4 years. They are ugly ugly ugly. Stay away from Kinsler.

The only rasonable option is Kendrick and he is going to cost more than any of us think. I bet they ask for Sims and in that case NO NO NO NO NO!
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That's the thing. Even though I would do Kendrick for La Stella straight up, the reality is the Angels will want something extra. I would definitely not be willing to include any of Wood, Sims, Bethancourt, Peraza and Cabrera for Kendrick.
 
I don't see how it makes sense for the Braves to bring in someone expensive when in two years they are going to have to fix the problem again. Braves need cheap productive players. They have the pieces in place to be a WS contender for the next six years. LaStella needs to be part of that puzzle.
 
thethe said:
I don't see how it makes sense for the Braves to bring in someone expensive when in two years they are going to have to fix the problem again. Braves need cheap productive players. They have the pieces in place to be a WS contender for the next six years. LaStella needs to be part of that puzzle.
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La Stella is a nice player, but not likely to be the next Carpenter. I strongly suspect he will be pushed out in a couple years by Peraza. I don't think the second base situation can be analyzed without taking Peraza into account. Imo he is going to be a much better player than La Stella. So getting someone like Kendrick for two years makes a lot of sense to me. It is a bridge to Peraza. Of course La Stella could be the bridge to Peraza too. I'm fine with either, but Kendrick is likely to give us a bit more than La Stella over the next two years. If we can get him without giving up the five guys I named earlier, I'd do it.
 
nsacpi said:
La Stella is a nice player, but not likely to be the next Carpenter. I strongly suspect he will be pushed out in a couple years by Peraza. I don't think the second base situation can be analyzed without taking Peraza into account. Imo he is going to be a much better player than La Stella. So getting someone like Kendrick for two years makes a lot of sense to me. It is a bridge to Peraza. Of course La Stella could be the bridge to Peraza too. I'm fine with either, but Kendrick is likely to give us a bit more than La Stella over the next two years. If we can get him without giving up the five guys I named earlier, I'd do it.
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I think thats a good way of looking at it but I need to see Peraza above Rome before I pencil him in ATL in two years. I think an optimistic projection is the middle of 2016 but more likely 2017. He is really young. I think we are going to need a longer bridge than two years for Peraza to be brought in. I'd rather not rush someone so young.
 
thethe said:
I think thats a good way of looking at it but I need to see Peraza above Rome before I pencil him in ATL in two years. I think an optimistic projection is the middle of 2016 but more likely 2017. He is really young. I think we are going to need a longer bridge than two years for Peraza to be brought in. I'd rather not rush someone so young.
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The thing that impressed me about both Sims and Peraza is the fact they both showed significant improvement in the second half. The Braves like to keep the younger guys playing their first full season in Rome the whole year. But after that they promote them rapidly if they show they can handle it. The way Sims and Peraza performed in the second half suggests to me they are going to move up at a rate faster than one level per year. I see them covering high A, AA and AAA over a two-year period (2014 and 2015). Barring injury I think they'll be in the majors early 2016 (which will be their age 22 season, young but hardly precocious).
 
nsacpi said:
The thing that impressed me about both Sims and Peraza is the fact they both showed significant improvement in the second half. The Braves like to keep the younger guys playing their first full season in Rome the whole year. But after that they promote them rapidly if they show they can handle it. The way Sims and Peraza performed in the second half suggests to me they are going to move up at a rate faster than one level per year. I see them covering high A, AA and AAA over a two-year period (2014 and 2015). Barring injury I think they'll be in the majors early 2016 (which will be their age 22 season, young but hardly precocious).
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I know its probably not the true baseball move but I would try to delay bringing guys like Sims/Peraza up early because of the long term impact on salary. If we have guys already on the roster that can cover those positions then the Braves are in a fortunate spot where they can stagger their promotions so that not everyone needs to get paid at once. Obviously, if they become so dynamic, and I believe Sims will be that, then they will force Wrens hand but at this point I don't see the need to push them to start the 2016 year.
 
thethe said:
I know its probably not the true baseball move but I would try to delay bringing guys like Sims/Peraza up early because of the long term impact on salary. If we have guys already on the roster that can cover those positions then the Braves are in a fortunate spot where they can stagger their promotions so that not everyone needs to get paid at once. Obviously, if they become so dynamic, and I believe Sims will be that, then they will force Wrens hand but at this point I don't see the need to push them to start the 2016 year.
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I'm against rushing a young player to the majors too. But if they have a strong half season to full season in AAA under their belt, they should come up unless there is someone better ahead of them in the majors.
 
DOB's latest blog has some interesting comments about La Stella and Peraza.

“He’s obviously doing well,” said Bruce Manno, Braves assistant GM and director of player development. “He’s always had really good plate discipline. Tommy’s bat is special, and he’s getting better defensively. We’re very pleased with his season and what he’s continue to do in the fall league.”

While Braves officials won’t say La Stella is a candidate for the second-base job next season if Dan Uggla is traded, there have been recent discussions within the organization and it is believed that La Stella could indeed come to camp with a shot at the job if Uggla is moved and the Braves don’t get another established second baseman.

The Braves are real high on Jose Peraza, the 19-year-old who played shortstop at Rome this season and hit .288 with a .341 OBP, eight triples and a whopping 64 steals in 79 attempts over 114 games. He also played some second base during the Braves’ instructional league that ended last week in Florida.

"Jose is a very exciting player," Manno said. "He's a leadoff hitter who can steal a base, handle the bat. Really good instincts. I think he’s going to be a special player for us. He’s gotten stronger and he can fly. He’s a plus runner and has the ability to steal bases."

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/atlanta-braves/2013/oct/25/la-stella-shines-among-braves-prospects-afl/
 
I agree that Peraza is a very exciting prospect that should be ready in two to three years. In the meantime, La Stella should be our starting 2nd baseman. Could be a very good problem to have by then between La Stella and Peraza.
 
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