Which pitchers do you see in the rotation long term?

Southcack77 said:
I legitimately am curious to see if they try to do extensions with Folty and Gausman or just let them reach free agency.
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I think they'd (Folty and Gausman) have to at least strongly consider the types of extensions I mentioned - how much does Keuchel regret passing on the Astros' 5 year/$90 million offer right now?
 
clvclv said:
Kinda all depends on what you're considering to be "long-term".

I know it's not popular, but I could see AA approaching Folty's and/or Gausman's reps with 3 or 4 year extension offers. Maybe something a year or so longer replacing their final year(s) of current control. 5 years for Folty (if signed now would take him through 2024 and age 32. 4 years for Gausman (signed now as well) would take him through 2023 at the same age. Have we really gotten so far that that's considered so old that they'll be declining that sharply at that point? Of all the arms we have, aren't those two of the ones (along with Soroka) that you feel will produce solidly enough to at least count on as long as they're healthy? I wouldn't expect either to take something like that, but given the uncertainties in today's market who knows? The third-most similar Pitcher on Gausman's B-Ref page through age 27 is Eovaldi. Gausman happens to be the sixth-most similar Pitcher on Folty's page through age 26. If you could get one (or even both) on similar deals to Eovaldi's, would that really strike anyone as an overly bad investment? I personally feel both those guys are better than Eovaldi. With Julio, O'Day, and Vizcaino coming off the books following 2019, it's not like it would be terribly tough to fit that type of contract in, especially considering the continuity it would give you at the top. We HOPE the younger arms are going to work out, but having at least one of those guys locked up that you feel confident is going to be no worse than your #3 over that period couldn't hurt.

If you could get those two at the top through 2023 and keep Soroka healthy, I think that takes care of 4 rotation spots over that period because I agree with those who think Fried might just have turned the corner as well. That leaves that last spot for Wright/Anderson and everyone else to battle for - or an inexpensive veteran that slips through the cracks like Gio did this winter (if needed). I would go to Touki and ask him to close. He has the stuff and mentality to be THE guy out there for that entire period and helps keep costs and commitments down. I'd also shift Wilson to the pen to be used like a Hader/Archie Bradley type that gives you 2 innings 2-3 times a week and get away from having EVERYBODY in the pen being strictly one inning options. I think Parsons could give you another guy like that as well. With the 3-hitter minimum rule coming in, I think having a couple guys like that could turn out to be pretty valuable. Maybe even ask Newk and Gohara to turn into that type of weapon so that they could just go after everyone they see as hard as they can one time through the order.
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I absolutely would NOT do deals like that. Yes, 32 is old for a pitcher, especially a pitcher like Folty who relies quite heavily on his pitch speed which will be declining like crazy at the end of that deal. I would ride out what we have with both of the, and then let them walk. Hopefully by the end of their deals the Braves have embraced more of an opener ideology, giving the amount of pitchers we have in the system that could get through a lineup once before they show signs of issues.
 
Skeeter31 said:
I absolutely would NOT do deals like that. Yes, 32 is old for a pitcher, especially a pitcher like Folty who relies quite heavily on his pitch speed which will be declining like crazy at the end of that deal. I would ride out what we have with both of the, and then let them walk. Hopefully by the end of their deals the Braves have embraced more of an opener ideology, giving the amount of pitchers we have in the system that could get through a lineup once before they show signs of issues.
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You have to keep in mind the guy suggesting these extensions is the same guy who thought...

Sale could be acquired for a package centered around Tyrell Jenkins.
Odorizzi could be acquired for Matt Adams.
Dee Gordon was a good return for Albies.
And on and on.

When someone has demonstrated a consistent lack of knowledge about player value and roster construction, it's probably safe to go ahead and disagree with whatever ideas they come up with.

There are scenarios where a Guas/Folty extension makes sense, but they require a bit more understanding about pitcher aging curves and player valuation into their 30s than he has ever shown to possess.
 
Enscheff said:
There are scenarios where a Guas/Folty extension makes sense, but they require a bit more understanding about pitcher aging curves and player valuation into their 30s than he has ever shown to possess.
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I think these possible scenarios are way more likely than I would have originally guessed.

I know Gausman approached the FO about an extension this offseason for instance.

I’d heard we had 4 potential extensions but was skeptical we’d really have that many in season. Still hearing we may have 2 left.
 
I wish we’d look into multiple innings guys. Not sure snit can handle it.

Our single innings guys aren’t that good.

Using a couple of Touki Wright Wilson newk for one time through the order makes sense for our talent.

Maybe later in the year you have gohara and weigel.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
I think these possible scenarios are way more likely than I would have originally guessed.

I know Gausman approached the FO about an extension this offseason for instance.

I’d heard we had 4 potential extensions but was skeptical we’d really have that many in season. Still hearing we may have 2 left.
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I’m hearing...
 
The Braves already have a ~$13M option over Gausman’s age 29 season. If he posts a couple healthy 3+ win seasons he is probably looking at signing for something approximating Corbin money, which is just under $25M per year for 4-6 years.

How many years do the Braves want to guarantee a pitcher in his 30s? None?

Maybe guarantee the age 29 season in exchange for a couple options under $20M each? I don’t know why Gausman would sign such a deal, but AA seems to have voodoo magic.
 
I think the obvious top 3 of the not as experienced guys considering what I've seen is (in order):

1. Mike Soroka (knocking on wood with that shoulder)
2. Max Fried (has made a BIG leap so far with how he looks, he'd be considered but lower if he hadn't, Soroka is still the clear #1 but the gap is closer, also a bit of injury risk here)
3. Touki Toussaint (maybe the most volatile of all of the prospects, if it clicks for him command wise he might be an ace, if it doesn't he could be an ace multi inning relief type)

I'm honestly starting to feel pretty good about Soroka and Fried. The only thing that worries me here is injury.
 
Soroka, Fried, Then... touki and Wright. I think it’s about time to see what Touki can do in the rotation regularly. Wright I think can still learn some in the minors but to me he’s one of those that are pretty much locks for a future spot. I think you look at Newk for the pen this year because it appears that’s where he can help us most, now. Same thing with Wilson, although I’m a little more bullish he can stick in the rotation if needed.
 
Tapate50 said:
Soroka, Fried, Then... touki and Wright. I think it’s about time to see what Touki can do in the rotation regularly. Wright I think can still learn some in the minors but to me he’s one of those that are pretty much locks for a future spot. I think you look at Newk for the pen this year because it appears that’s where he can help us most, now. Same thing with Wilson, although I’m a little more bullish he can stick in the rotation if needed.
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I like most of this but I think Wilson could be a dynamite middle reliever. I watched him in the minors and he held his velo well in most starts but was dominate in 3-4 inning stretches.
 
There's way too much young and cheap pitching in the system to dedicate significant budget to pitcher extensions. We need to be replacing the guys at the end of arbitration with league minimum players for the next few years. Even better would be to turn a guy like Folty's last year or two into a couple of low minors prospects to spread the contention window farther, as long as there is depth to replace him.
 
zitothebrave said:
I wouldn't give up on Newk yet. He's got some issues, that's for sure, but over his 276 innings in the bigs he's been just about average, 97 ERA- 101 FIP- but if your number 5 starter is a league average pitcher who gives you 5-6 innings of average numbers, you take that. I don't think Newcomb is a star, I think that ship sailed. But he could easily be a left handed Teheran which has value.
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Newk is a bust. Our time to move him was in the off season, but now we are stuck holding the bag.
 
Fried and Soroka are the two I would say have separated themselves from the pack. Beyond that there is a lot of uncertainty. But I think its likely we will see a couple more emerge from among the guys in the system. I think AA feels that uncertainty and that explains some of his reluctance to trade away from the system.
 
I might be willing to extend Folty a year or two into FA, but not at market rates. Would have to be less than 15 million in AAV since we're guaranteeing his 2 remaining arby years. So probably something like 4/50. With a 5th year option and a low buyout. Could look like this:

8 million
12 million
15 million
15 million
15 million option with a 2 million buyout.
 
Bryce Wilson reminds me of Kris Medlen. Underwhelming stuff but makes up for it by being aggressive and having good command. I would hate to see him moved to the bullpen.
 
Carp said:
I might be willing to extend Folty a year or two into FA, but not at market rates. Would have to be less than 15 million in AAV since we're guaranteeing his 2 remaining arby years. So probably something like 4/50. With a 5th year option and a low buyout. Could look like this:

8 million
12 million
15 million
15 million
15 million option with a 2 million buyout.
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This is a pretty good take on the Folty situation. Guaranteeing those arb years is a big deal, and should only be done to gain control over FA seasons at a significant discount. Is it wise to go from 2 option years to 4 guaranteed years in his early 30s? That's a lot of risk to take on a guy who just sat out a couple weeks due to elbow pain.

Like with Gausman, there are extension scenarios that make sense with Folty, but they are deals I can't imagine the player being willing to sign after he is already set for life.
 
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