The guy everyone hopes can turn into a cornerstone player just crossed 100 PA for 2019, so let's take a look at how he's doing.
Overall Slash Line:
104 PAs, .250/.337/.523 (.859 OPS, .273 ISO), 116 wRC+, 0.8 WAR
What's Not Real:
The first thing that jumps off the page as unsustainable for Swanson is the 20.8% HR/FB rate. He popped a few early HRs, and it was clear his .765 early SLG was due for some serious regression. That regression in the power numbers came, and it came fast. His middle of the pack FB/LD exit velocity suggests a middle of the pack HR/FB rate, so something in the 12%-13% range seems more realistic.
Countering the likely power regression to the negative should be the positive regression of the BABIP to the positive. We have seen Swanson hit into some terrible luck, and his .270 BABIP agrees with that eye test. Swanson should be a guy that sustains a BABIP in the low .300s, which will bring up his total line a bit.
What Is Real:
Like the rest of the roster, Swanson has seen his BB rate increase to 11.5%. The K rate is holding steady at 22.1%, so there's nothing to worry about there. We've seen him appear to be handling the SL better, and aside from the wrist injury, that was the biggest offensive challenge he was facing.
I'm not ready to call his 27.9% LD rate real yet, but it is a good sign that the 19.9% LD rate from 2018 was likely the fluke, and we can expect something in the low 20s moving forward. All of his other batted ball numbers look reasonable (41.2% Pull%, 32.4% Cent%, 26.5% Oppo%), so the improved Dansby appears to be the product of health and other minor adjustments rather than an overhaul to his overall offensive approach.
Moving Forward:
It looks like the Real Dansby Swanson has finally arrived. No, not the .523 SLG guy at SS due for regression in the power department. The real healthy Swanson appears to be a good defensive SS with a line approximating .260/.350/.425. A .750-.800 OPS from a good defensive SS is extremely valuable, and is what everyone thought the Braves stole from the DBacks.
Because his name isn't Acuna or Freeman, Snit has rested Swanson 2 games already this season, which is good news for those hoping to see him fresh and healthy all year.
Overall Slash Line:
104 PAs, .250/.337/.523 (.859 OPS, .273 ISO), 116 wRC+, 0.8 WAR
What's Not Real:
The first thing that jumps off the page as unsustainable for Swanson is the 20.8% HR/FB rate. He popped a few early HRs, and it was clear his .765 early SLG was due for some serious regression. That regression in the power numbers came, and it came fast. His middle of the pack FB/LD exit velocity suggests a middle of the pack HR/FB rate, so something in the 12%-13% range seems more realistic.
Countering the likely power regression to the negative should be the positive regression of the BABIP to the positive. We have seen Swanson hit into some terrible luck, and his .270 BABIP agrees with that eye test. Swanson should be a guy that sustains a BABIP in the low .300s, which will bring up his total line a bit.
What Is Real:
Like the rest of the roster, Swanson has seen his BB rate increase to 11.5%. The K rate is holding steady at 22.1%, so there's nothing to worry about there. We've seen him appear to be handling the SL better, and aside from the wrist injury, that was the biggest offensive challenge he was facing.
I'm not ready to call his 27.9% LD rate real yet, but it is a good sign that the 19.9% LD rate from 2018 was likely the fluke, and we can expect something in the low 20s moving forward. All of his other batted ball numbers look reasonable (41.2% Pull%, 32.4% Cent%, 26.5% Oppo%), so the improved Dansby appears to be the product of health and other minor adjustments rather than an overhaul to his overall offensive approach.
Moving Forward:
It looks like the Real Dansby Swanson has finally arrived. No, not the .523 SLG guy at SS due for regression in the power department. The real healthy Swanson appears to be a good defensive SS with a line approximating .260/.350/.425. A .750-.800 OPS from a good defensive SS is extremely valuable, and is what everyone thought the Braves stole from the DBacks.
Because his name isn't Acuna or Freeman, Snit has rested Swanson 2 games already this season, which is good news for those hoping to see him fresh and healthy all year.
Last edited:
