2019 100 PA Check In: Ozzie Albies

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
Everyone's favorite spark plug just crossed 100 PAs as a LHH, so it's time to see how he's doing.

Overall Slash Line:

ALL: 141 PAs, .292/.348/.508 (.855 OPS, .215 ISO), 124 wRC+, 1.1 WAR
LHH: 106 PAs, .253/.330/.421 (.751 OPS, .168 ISO), 99 wRC+
RHH: 35 PAs, .400/.400/.743 (1.143 OPS, .343 ISO), 200 wRC+

What's Not Real:

The RHH batting line in a 35 PA sample. We know he isn't going to never walk as a RHH, and we know he isn't going to have a 44.4% HR/FB rate from that side either. What we do know is that he is very good from that side of the plate, so we won't dwell on this small sample very much, and instead focus on the LHH portion of his game.

As a LHH there really isn't much weirdness going on. It is tempting to say a speedy LHH should have a higher BABIP than .297, but when you realize his career BABIP as a LHH over 778 PAs is .272, it makes you pump the brakes on that idea.

What Is Real:

So far in 2019, it's pretty much what you see is what you get from Ablies as a LHH. A 9.4% BB rate, 17.9% K rate, .168 ISO, 7.7% HR/FB, and a pedestrian 90.7 mph exit velocity on LD/FB...all adds up to a league average .750 OPS.

RHH Albies is a whole other beast altogether though, starting with the 94.1 LD/FB mph exit velocity, and much lower 5.7% K rate. It's a small smaple in 2019 but his career K rate splits (17.6% vs 12.4%) suggest his hit tool and power are both much better as a RHH. His entire MLB career as a RHH is a small-ish sample size spread out over 3 seasons, but his peripherals suggest his career .940 OPS isn't smoke and mirrors.

One positive sign as a LHH is the FB rate is down to 34.7% vs 42.1% for his career. His exit velocities suggest he is going to have to be more of a slap hitter vs RHP, while being an impact bat vs LHP. I'm not sure how feasible it is for guys to have 2 different approaches with 2 different swings, but that's the optimal game plan for Ozzie.

Moving Forward:

With Ozzie pacing to 5-6 wins at the age of 22 and playing for peanuts, he is quite possibly the most valuable player in MLB. It's easy to get frustrated with the seemingly slow rate of improvement from Ozzie, but fans are losing a bit of perspective seeing Acuna make improvements much faster than is typical of young players. Albies will be (is) a great player, and everyone should be happy he wasn't traded for Dee Gordon.

As of right now Ozzie looks to be a true talent ~.750 OPS hitter vs RHP, and a ~.900 OPS hitter vs LHP. For an everyday player, the RHP/LHP ratio of PAs is roughly 3:1, so applying that ratio to those OPSs results in an overall OPS around ~.787. Coincidentally (not so much), his career OPS is .782. While the Braves could do worse (and have done worse) than an empty .330 OBP in the lead off hole (essentially Ender Inciarte), I still think Albies should be platooned with Markakis in that spot in the lineup.
 
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Thanks for doing this. Are there signs of hope from the LH side that I'm missing? Is it too early to consider him giving up switch hitting?
 
There isn't any real data about MLB hitters dropping 1 side.

RHH typically lose ~30 points of OPS when losing the platoon advantage.

LHH typically lose ~80 points of OPS when losing the platoon advantage.

So while it's tempting to say "oh, Albies will be an .850 OPS batter vs RHP as a RHH", that leaves out the likely reason for the discrepancy between LHH and RHH platoon advantage being that RHH have faced many RHP their entire lives. Albies hasn't had that life long advantage.

Does that mean Albies would suffer the ~80 point OPS penalty and be an ~.820 OPS as a RHH vs RHP?

Very hard to say.
 
I think we should let him continue to try to improve vs RHP for another year or two before trying something that drastic. He's still only 22 years old so I think there is reason to hope that he could add a few OPS points over the course of the next 2-3 years on that side.

Regardless of what we do, his talent and his contract make him immensely valuable. Like, its almost laughable how much surplus value he is likely to generate over the course of this contract.
 
His swing just looks more compact and natural from the RHH side. I think it would be easier for him to make up the inexperience than him trying to manage two very different swings.
 
jpx7 said:
Any idea why he started switch-hitting so late?
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Ozzie was interviewed on the All Star selection show last night and was a very good interview. They asked him about switch hitting and how he started. Ozzie said that when the Braves signed him, they told him to learn how to switch hit (he batted dominantly right handed his whole life). So he learned how to switch hit while playing pro ball which is bad A. Now he’s hitting bombs and splitting gaps left handed.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/Braves/comments/8xfc5h/ozzie_albies_switch_hitting/

I know it's not the best source but after reading it it refreshed my memory, I remember watching that interview live but didn't remember the switch hitting details.
 
A .750 OPS from the left side obviously isn't super great, and you'd like to see him bump that up, but you can make that work. You just won't him falling down to the .231/.283/.412 level where he was last year - that's when the performance starts becoming untenable and really drags down the overall numbers.
 
Enscheff said:
There isn't any real data about MLB hitters dropping 1 side.

RHH typically lose ~30 points of OPS when losing the platoon advantage.

LHH typically lose ~80 points of OPS when losing the platoon advantage.

So while it's tempting to say "oh, Albies will be an .850 OPS batter vs RHP as a RHH", that leaves out the likely reason for the discrepancy between LHH and RHH platoon advantage being that RHH have faced many RHP their entire lives. Albies hasn't had that life long advantage.

Does that mean Albies would suffer the ~80 point OPS penalty and be an ~.820 OPS as a RHH vs RHP?

Very hard to say.
Click to expand...

Thanks a lot for that. Thanks for answering my question as I always wondered that.
 
I wouldn't be opposed to giving Ozzie some righty on righty plate appearances in Spring training next year just to see if he would take to it well at the professional level.
 
I was a switch hitter and hit against Shumpert and Finley when they were at Paducah Tilghman to be good to great players in the Majors. I did not have much power from the left side but I can gap and spray and occasionally hit home runs, but on the right side I was deadly, I could hit long bombs at my size of 6'0 and 200 lbs. I would have McGuire shots as they said back then.

Before you say it, I was into basketball and wanted to travel the world, my brother could been an elite closer (senior they clocked him at 94 easily in the final four in Illinois playoffs) and as a starter he had a lot of schools looking at him but he had a scholarship in basketball his first love already. We played baseball for fun. Could I have played baseball, probably. I think my average was around .370, which was good. I think I played against a few other that played in the Major Leagues as well. Terry Shumpert dated my cousin, his sister played for my dad when he coached. His younger brother was one of my friends growing up, we are the same age.

My cousin is pissed as she dumped him in high school.

In my opinion, he should see if he is okay just hitting right handed. I would have changed. Trying to be a power hitter on your weak side is not the answer but Dr. Scheff knows better than me. I am going by experience. I am on the defense all the time on my weak hand. I just spray as if I try to hit homers, does not end well.
 
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I know nothing about a switch hitter dropping one side to focus on his stronger side. I swing righty and I’d just hurt myself trying to take a real hack from the other side.

I don’t think anyone knows the actual answer as very few MLB quality switch hitters have dropped one side.

My guess is that since he’s only been hitting LH for a few years he could get better. He could also probably switch back easier than a guy who has been hitting LH vs RHP since he was 5.

Who knows, but after last season I bet it was at least being discussed in the Braves FO.
 
JT Snow dropped switch hitting, but he's the only one I know that did.

Chipper batted righty against Mariano Rivera to help combat his cutter, iirc.
 
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Mrs. Meta said:
JT Snow dropped switch hitting, but he's the only one I know that did.

Chipper batted righty against Mariano Rivera to help combat his cutter, iirc.
Click to expand...

Neifi Perez, arguably the greatest switch hitter of all time, also dropped switch hitting.
 
I’m a natural righty and I tried to switch hit as a kid and batting lefty I looked like I was blindfolded swinging at a piñata so these guys have my Respect.
 
I remember to trying to switch hit in Dizzy Dean. I modeled my left handed swing after Klesko's open stance swing. It wasn't pretty.
 
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