2019 MLB Draft Thread

Fingers crossed the Braves can get a bat at 9 and float Priester to 21 with an over slot deal. For no particular reason other than homerism, Priester reminds me of Soroka.
 
Still hoping the front office finds a way to get Abrams to drop. We would need his participation in such a scheme. But he is a local boy and may be willing to play along.

Our #9 pick has slot value of 4.9M and our #21 has a value of 3.1M.

Let's say we offer Abrams 6.5M. That would exceed slot value for the #5 pick (6.2M). It would be slightly less than slot for the #4 pick. But the Marlins hold that pick. I don't think the kid would want to play for them. So maybe he tells them (and the other teams) his price is over 7M.

I think it's a plausible scenario.
 
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Picks in the Top 5 typically sign for slot or ~$0.5M below slot, sometimes a bit less if they were specially popped to be under slot signings.

FG has the Sox grabbing Abrams at 3, so that means his number right now is probably in the $6M range (Bohm got $5.8M last year at 3). Your $6.5M number to get Abrams to slide to 9 is probably pretty close to accurate. The result of such a spend would mean essentially punting pick 21.

So the question becomes whether or not the Braves would prefer a FV 50 plus a fringe guy at 9/21, or a couple of 45 or 45+ guys at 9/21.

I personally don't see that as a viable draft strategy, and would rather see a bat plus a high upside arm.
 
Some Longenhagen stuff from his chat --

Teddy
12:16 The mock mentioned Lodolo to Atlanta at 9 because it was a good value. Was that you and Kiley's opinion, or do you think that is Atlanta's opinion?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17 both, we think, but I expect we'll have a different name there Monday.


Greg
12:19 With what you've seen of Hunter Bishop, how concerned are you about the Ks being a long-term concern? Is there a mechanical fix, or is it pitch recognition or something else?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20 He swings over top of breaking balls beneath the zone. He's not early on them, I think he identifies them okay and needs a longer stride or more flex in his front leg to get to them. It's fair to be optimistic he can make that adjustment, he did make several coming into this season after all.


Larry
12:20 Where's the earliest landing spot for Corbin Carroll?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20 Eight


Jack
12:33 Is Corbin Carroll to similar to Haseley and Moniak for the Phillies to take?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34 Not really. Maybe he's somewhat like Mo because it's contact/CF/speed/instincts but there are physical differences that make the comp worse.


Brian
12:55 How likely is it that Bishop falls to the Giants at 10?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56 He's maybe, maybe a sleeper at 6, in play at 8 and 9. It's probably close to 50/50 but trending up


Guest
12:58 Why isn't Corbin Carroll a top 10 prospect in this draft? Seems like the recent success of shorter and smaller framed players should mitigate that concern.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58 approach to contact limits power output. We really like him


Guest
1:06 Is Hunter Bishop much different from Greyson Jenista as a prospect? Their draft profiles read similarly to me, and mandatory swing changes make me nervous.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06 Bish is a 6 runner, better body, real shot to stay in CF. Jenista's swing was way more a mess.
 
Enscheff said:
Picks in the Top 5 typically sign for slot or ~$0.5M below slot, sometimes a bit less if they were specially popped to be under slot signings.

FG has the Sox grabbing Abrams at 3, so that means his number right now is probably in the $6M range (Bohm got $5.8M last year at 3). Your $6.5M number to get Abrams to slide to 9 is probably pretty close to accurate. The result of such a spend would mean essentially punting pick 21.

So the question becomes whether or not the Braves would prefer a FV 50 plus a fringe guy at 9/21, or a couple of 45 or 45+ guys at 9/21.

I personally don't see that as a viable draft strategy, and would rather see a bat plus a high upside arm.
Click to expand...

To round things out we could take someone slightly inferior to Priester such as Espino at 21 for around 2M.

So Abrams/Espino vs say Carroll/Priester.
 
Here's what BA has on Volpe:

It sounds like the Braves are bearing down a bit on Volpe, which is surprising from a profile standpoint considering what they’ve done in the past. Outside of that rumor, a prep pitcher makes the most sense, though the team could seek a college hitter after going with Manoah with their first pick. As you can tell from the number of potential options, things start to get even dicier around here.

I think Volpe is considered a tough sign. He and Jack Leiter played for the same HS. Both supposedly telling teams other than the Yankees they are not interested. Both are Vanderbilt commits.
 
Fangraphs' writeup on Volpe is not good: "Silky smooth defender at short with plus actions. Might max out as a utility type instead of everyday guy."
 
nsacpi said:
They have Abrams at 6, us taking Manoah at 9. Then they have us taking Anthony Volpe at 21. That's a very interesting pick. Volpe is one of several HS shortstops I would consider strongly with our second round pick.
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Given where BA has everyone in today's mock, I wonder what the chances are that we could afford to pop Carroll at #9 and somehow get Allan or Priester past the Pirates to snag him at #21 (or Malone)?

Would get you the top HS bat not named Witt, Greene, Abrams, or Baty. If teams are really going to be that leery of HS RHPs with $4 million asking prices, that might be the best way to go to get the highest combined upside with the two picks. Fan Graphs has Carroll at #13, Priester at #14, Allan at #18, and Malone at #22.
 
CJ9 said:
Fangraphs' writeup on Volpe is not good: "Silky smooth defender at short with plus actions. Might max out as a utility type instead of everyday guy."
Click to expand...

The first 20 picks tend to be very similar on most teams' draft boards. After that things can diverge a lot. There is a group of about 7-8 HS shortstops that appear to be rated very similarly to Volpe and a similar group of college shortstops. This is where the Braves have to trust their scouts. I bet there are a couple of those shortstops that will go on to very good major league careers. Our scouts need to find the right one. I do quibble a little about using the 21 pick for that player. If the scouts like 2-3 of this group they could gamble one is available with the #60 pick.
 
BA's summary of the state of play:

Less than 80 hours before the draft begins, the top of the draft remains relatively static. Scouting directors, scouts and agents all see a clear top six at the top of the board. Lefthander Nick Lodolo hangs at the very periphery of that top six with a relatively static grouping of other top pitchers and hitters right behind him.

But once the picks roll into the middle of the first round, anything and everything can happen. As usual, there appears to be significant late momentum for college players who are finishing strong. UNC Wilimington’s Greg Jones, UCLA’s Michael Toglia and Ryan Garcia and Tulane’s Kody Hoese all appear to be moving further up draft boards. Beyond the first round, Houston’s Jared Triolo, California’s Korey Lee and Oregon State’s Grant Gambrell also seem to be moving up.

Greg Jones is one of those college shortstops that is part of the group I think we need to look at closely as candidates for the #60 pick.
 
Bishop is playing against Southern Miss right now and I haven't been all that impressed with him. Matt Wallner on the other hand, has been a monster. He hit a ball that might have gone 500 feet in this game. If he is still available for us at 60, he'd be a tremendous pickup, although I admit I'm a bit biased. He has almost 60 career homers at USM and has some room to grow at 6'5" 215 lbs.

I'd be a big fan of going after the usual suspects at 9 and 21 and then using the 60 pick on Wallner. That would be a heck of a haul.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Bishop is playing against Southern Miss right now and I haven't been all that impressed with him. Matt Wallner on the other hand, has been a monster. He hit a ball that might have gone 500 feet in this game. If he is still available for us at 60, he'd be a tremendous pickup, although I admit I'm a bit biased. He has almost 60 career homers at USM and has some room to grow at 6'5" 215 lbs.

I'd be a big fan of going after the usual suspects at 9 and 21 and then using the 60 pick on Wallner. That would be a heck of a haul.
Click to expand...

There will be some good players available at 60.

Having those two first round picks (and the slot money associated with them) allows us to be creative. We can try to go over slot early and try to get Abrams. But if that is not in the cards we can go the opposite direction and go under slot and use the $ to enhance our picks in rounds 2-4. We played that game to get Wentz, Muller and Wilson in 2016.
 
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A really thorough breakdown of a strategy that I’ve long been curious about.
 
My favorite prospect in this draft is Maurice Hampton.

Currently projected 45th, 2nd round to the White Sox.

Most of our projected guys at 21 are uninspiring, so I'd take him there on an over-slot deal to prevent him from going to LSU for football.

Most of the guys projected at 9 are uninspiring, as well. I guess I'd take the highest upside high school bat.
 
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