Austin Riley Apology Thread

GeorgiaGirl said:
Nah, I think he legit upped his upside from that this year if the adjustments stick for him. Yes before this year, he was likely a .250/.320/.480-.500 guy or roundabouts that, but I think he can do better now.
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I think his SLg upside has certainly improved. His raw power is certainly translating to game power now. That can have an effect on his walk rate too if he is selective enough. Teams pitch big time sluggers like that differently and it will be up to him to be more selective.
 
When Dale Murphy came up he was a bad catcher then 1b and then moved to the outfield, but the thing this younger generation did not know, he change his hitting style. He was a pull hitter but a lot of his homer when he stop striking out a lot was to right field, he wore it out. Yes he will go to left center, I think he broke some Dodger pitcher record of scoreless innings. Murphy was taller than Riley, but I think Riley is stronger. He muscled a NASTY slider the other way, even the pitcher said that was his out pitch and the hitter was better.

Keep working your approaching the league is going to go inside on you, that is your weak side, like they do Acuna and Freeman. Swanson and Donaldson you will be punished, they love them.
 
I've been a fan for 45 years.

My dad would take me to Chicago to see the Braves specifically when they were in town and also the Cardinals.

Aaron, Burroughs, Murphy, Horner, I seen them all.

But you have Office, Washington, Benedict, Asselstine, Komminsk and Pocoroba as well.
 
Riley seems to have the drive/intelligence to make real, important adjustments, even if they're not super quick. while his performance is unsustainable and he's in for some not-so-fun times, he certainly looks like he'll be a legit impact player.
 
Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit. I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG (napkin calcs gave way too many doubles).

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs
 
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Enscheff said:
Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit, and I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG.

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs
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You're a damn wizard and it freaks me out, but I think that line is likely where we'll see him sit as well. If he could add .10-20 to his AVG and .20-30 his OBP, he'd be a monster.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
You're a damn wizard and it freaks me out, but I think that line is likely where we'll see him sit as well. If he could add .10-20 to his AVG and .20-30 his OBP, he'd be a monster.
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He's I think is an analyst (programmer) and the Braves should hire him.

He knows about more than about 95% of them.
 
Enscheff said:
Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit. I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG (napkin calcs gave way too many doubles).

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs
Click to expand...

If the Final line is that, he would win ROY unless Soroka continue his insane pitching, which I hope continues.
 
We have 23 mil available next year.

We know this now. Unless he drastically tank. I don't think he will, he is adjusting.

He will go the other way and we seen this on several homers and doubles, no shifts.
 
When he adjust a Troy Glaus lite.

30 to 40 homer hitter every year, around .260 to .280 avg and about 140 to 160 strikeouts.

Dr. Scheff could confirm this or alter it, he is better than in this but I think he would agree with me.
 
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