GDT: B @ N 62319

Enscheff said:
These types of projections are why the Nats aren't dead, and why the "kill shot" narrative was silly:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-national-league/

Most (all?) public projection models have the Nats as a 50/50 coin flip to be playing in the WC game. I'm sure the Nats have internal projections that suggest similar.

It is absurd to suggest the Nats became sellers because they lost 2 of 3 to the Braves last weekend.
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Yeah the Nats are still right in there from a wild card perspective. They have the team to make the run. This weekend's series was nice, but it didn't move the needle much as far as them buying or selling at the deadline.

There are sets of circumstances where the Nats should consider selling, though. If the Braves are able to build on their current lead in the division, the Cardinals/Rockies/Phillies/Brewers expand their wild card lead, and the Nats are still below .500 around July 20th or so, I think they will have some difficult decisions to make. I'd say the number where I'd consider selling would be playoff odds between 10-15%. At that point, I think it would be in their best interest to move some pieces for future value.

But if I had to bet on what is going to happen, I think the Nats are going to make a run between now and then and they'll be comfortably in contention at the deadline.
 
Enscheff said:
These types of projections are why the Nats aren't dead, and why the "kill shot" narrative was silly:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-national-league/

Most (all?) public projection models have the Nats as a 50/50 coin flip to be playing in the WC game. I'm sure the Nats have internal projections that suggest similar.

It is absurd to suggest the Nats became sellers because they lost 2 of 3 to the Braves last weekend.
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They aren't dead for the WC. But that 86% for the Braves to win the division is looking really good right now.
 
the gnats are gonna make a major surge under the veteran laidership of former Brave Council of Elders members Anibal Sanchez and Kurt Suzuki
 
thewupk said:
They aren't dead for the WC. But that 86% for the Braves to win the division is looking really good right now.
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Oh for sure. The Braves still have a ton of powder dry for acquisitions at the deadline as well. They have to be considered the strong favorites for the division now.

I'm talking about the silly narrative popping up in the GDT yesterday that the Nats were dead and they would be trading Rendon today.
 
Enscheff said:
Oh for sure. The Braves still have a ton of powder dry for acquisitions at the deadline as well. They have to be considered the strong favorites for the division now.

I'm talking about the silly narrative popping up in the GDT yesterday that the Nats were dead and they would be trading Rendon today.
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Are you speaking in hyperbole?

Don't think anyone legit thought they'd be trading him today. The consensus was beating the Nats in their park while already having a comfortable lead was sending them a message. They've been playing solid baseball the last few weeks as we have. Momentum/Confidence in baseball can be a funny thing sometimes. So if they swept us they would have been on cloud 9, and if they took 2 out of 3 it was still a big moral victory for them considering how hot we've been.

But nobody thought they're done today. It's moreso, them not sweeping us or picking up any games on us makes it harder for them to climb out of the early hole they put themselves in. As @chop2chip said, we could play mediocre 3-7 baseball the next few games and still not worry about losing the division lead.

So yes, the Nats and Phillies aren't mathematically eliminated yet, but unless we start falling off the face of the Earth it's going to be tough for them to outplay us the rest of the year, especially seeing how shaky both of their bullpens are. I don't foresee this being another 2011 situation where we blow a comfortable lead in the standings.
 
Enscheff said:
These types of projections are why the Nats aren't dead, and why the "kill shot" narrative was silly:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-national-league/

Most (all?) public projection models have the Nats as a 50/50 coin flip to be playing in the WC game. I'm sure the Nats have internal projections that suggest similar.

It is absurd to suggest the Nats became sellers because they lost 2 of 3 to the Braves last weekend.
Click to expand...


We are superior to them in every phase of the game besides starting pitching, which clearly makes them the team every other WC contender should want to avoid.
With their top 3 they could conceivably beat anyone in a short series.
Glad we are letting the other teams worry about that come playoff time.
Perfect scenario for us would be for them to win the WC and face the Dodgers in the 1st round.
I don’t see anyone beating LA but with the Nats starting pitching being able to match up, you never know if Max or Strasburg were to get hot what could happen.
 
Individual-1 said:
Are you speaking in hyperbole?

Don't think anyone legit thought they'd be trading him today. The consensus was beating the Nats in their park while already having a comfortable lead was sending them a message. They've been playing solid baseball the last few weeks as we have. Momentum/Confidence in baseball can be a funny thing sometimes. So if they swept us they would have been on cloud 9, and if they took 2 out of 3 it was still a big moral victory for them considering how hot we've been.

But nobody thought they're done today. It's moreso, them not sweeping us or picking up any games on us makes it harder for them to climb out of the early hole they put themselves in. As @chop2chip said, we could play mediocre 3-7 baseball the next few games and still not worry about losing the division lead.

So yes, the Nats and Phillies aren't mathematically eliminated yet, but unless we start falling off the face of the Earth it's going to be tough for them to outplay us the rest of the year, especially seeing how shaky both of their bullpens are. I don't foresee this being another 2011 situation where we blow a comfortable lead in the standings.
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I think you need to go review the comments in the GDT if you missed the “Nats are now sellers” narrative.
 
Soto just landed a huge shoe contract yesterday.

Orthofeet.com is paying him $2.25 a day plus all the rock candy and circus peanuts he can eat...plus unlimited supply of corn pads to be their new spokesman. Deals like this will help reduce the gnats salary demand later on.
 
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