Around The Majors 2019
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
Don't think I'd disagree much with that list (or that many others would).
The point I'm making isn't about the "who" as much as the "when".
We're now within 5 weeks of the deadline. For as close to the vest as AA plays things, he's made absolutely no secret that this team needs at least one serious pen upgrade if not more - and that he intends to address it. You have the pieces to go get whichever "who" that you choose, so why wait for the other clubs to dictate who you wind up getting? If you've established your list of "untouchables", exactly what are you waiting for?
If you want Smith and aren't willing to go further than Prospect X and maybe a throw-in or two, why not make the offer and move on to the next guy you're interested in if they aren't interested? You've drawn your line and aren't crossing it, even if that means you roll with what you've got. Move on to the next target on your list and make your offer for him - either until you get someone or decide that the price for everyone is too high. That's what happened this winter, and in the long run that's perfectly fine - the Liberty shareholders will be a little disappointed you blew that money on Donaldson and Keuchel though.
The similar valuation model is great in theory - just not so much in practice in an individual year. Some of the contenders are going to "overpay" for Smith and the other premium relievers, and if you're going to be completely inflexible based on your internal valuations you're going to be watching them on TV while you're on vacation. Nobody's saying keep going up that list until you get someone, but if you haven't been able to find a team willing to take 2-3 guys from the next tier by now you're not going to get much of an upgrade.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
wouldnt the when be something out of our hands...in this situation it is the giants' call on when to tell other teams to submit final bids on Smith
same applies to other selling teams and players they choose to make available
I can also think of reasons why the Braves would prefer to make the deal closer to the deadline...it could be argued both ways
same applies to other selling teams and players they choose to make available
I can also think of reasons why the Braves would prefer to make the deal closer to the deadline...it could be argued both ways
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Only to the point that you're WAITING on Smith. If they're looking for more than AA's willing to give up, you move on to the next guy on your list, and let the Giants get what they can from another team when you've gotten someone else. If they haven't gotten the overpay they hoped for and are willing to deal Smith for a couple of the guys you've got left in two or three weeks, they'll call you.
If you've already picked up Giles or someone else with what you were willing to pay for Smith you just hoard the rest of the prospects and say "thanks but no thanks, we're good with what we have now".
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bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
What are we getting Smith for though? Playoffs or regular season. Buying an extra month of Smith could justify a higher cost. Also most teams are not going to sell their most valuable assets too earlier so the market can be fully predictable.
I have a feeling most of the guys we would want are still off limits until mid July. If they weren’t, then there would be some trades already happen.
I have a feeling most of the guys we would want are still off limits until mid July. If they weren’t, then there would be some trades already happen.
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you seem to have this idea that the Braves can make teams trade them guys right now. they could if they vastly overpay. otherwise they cannot. what you're suggesting is a recipe for disaster
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
it's not just the giants and smith... selling teams make the call on when to sell...and it serves their interest not to appear eager to sell
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Except, one reliever is a relatively small factor in whether a team succeeds or fail.
People have made the same comment about all the free agents and acquisitions made within the division this offseason and yet the Braves stand 5.5 games up with a pristine balance sheet and the best farm system in the division.
Overpaying for reliever rentals at the beginning of a run is almost certainly a bad move.
I'm not really as high on Ynoa or Vodnik but I wouldn't trade them for a rental. I might trade them for someone with another year of control or two, but not a rental.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There are reasons to be patient:
1) If you are too eager for a deal the other GM will sense it and exploit it.
2) Among the targeted players, some could get injured or lose form between now and the end of July. Let the selling teams bear that risk (see Jason Grilli).
3) Our precise needs could change over the next month. Injuries/loss of form, for example, could make it more important to get a lefty or righty for the pen.
Those kinds of considerations generally trump the benefit of getting the guy in a few weeks earlier.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The Giants have very little motivation to sell Will Smith in June unless they are getting what they see as a clear win in return.
Basically, their risk factors are just injury, regression, or a decrease in demand. These are all significant risks, but I think the risk is well outweighed by the reward. Honestly, if they get nothing for Will Smith, their situation is little changed. If they got something really nice, then their situation is significantly improved.
A clear win for the Giants on Will Smith is probably something that the Braves would be better off investing in a player with control beyond this season.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The main thing is to be flexible, with respect to both timing and player. AA won't approach this thinking he needs player X by a certain date. If there is an opportunity that materializes well before the deadline, by all means put in a competitive offer. But it doesn't make sense to try to force anything at this point.
I’m also betting that other teams with RP trade pieces are going to wait for the Giants to move Smith first and set the market. They’re going to want to gouge the teams that miss out on getting Smith. Clv’s idea that we can set the market and just make a deal now is absurd. Like everyone else has pointed out, it’s the seller that decides when to make a deal, and like almost every other year, those deals aren’t going to happen until the few days leading up to the deadline. Unless we offer a ridiculous overpay deal, there won’t be a trade happening right now. But please, continue to post 3-4 paragraph responses as to why AA is making a mistake not making a trade now.
Southcack77
Well-known member
2 and 3 are critical.
Other factors that might support waiting:
4) The Braves have a relatively comfortable cushion. That puts them in a position where they do not have to act desperately to try and make up ground. The bullpen may be suspect, but it is currently performing.
5) Similarly, the Braves have solid long term outlook. This is not the end of a run. They're not an underperforming big payroll in decline. They are not a club whose GM needs to save his job.
6) The selling market has not been fully realized.
Southcack77
Well-known member
If they can acquire Will Smith for a spare part right now, then they should go ahead and do it.
If they are meeting the Giant's heart's desire for Will Smith in June, they almost certainly should not.
While the idea of adding elite relievers to the bullpen is really, really sexy, at the end of the day a leverage reliever only has so much impact on a playoff series and it's not necessarily entirely predictable how they will perform.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
#3 is spot on. We might need a starter by mid July more then we need a reliever
Tapate50
Well-known member
I was told Soroka was taking the bump every third day from July on to solidify our playoff spot
CrazyTrain
Well-known member
Agreed.
I have more faith that we can fill out a functional rotation for the rest of the regular season with internal options than I do in Jackson's ability to close games under immense pressure of a pennant race/post season. A lot can change in a month.
I hope Folty can figure it out at AAA and return to form because I think a post season rotation of Keuchel, Soroka, Folty and Teheran can be dangerous and obviously the offense is capable of winning it all, but without a dependable closer that's all out the window.
what gives you this thought on Jackson?