ESPN Insider: Why the Braves should consider trading Kimbrel this winter.

Carp said:
But it has been pretty bad in the past. These types of things can be cyclical. We were crazy good at developing star position players in the 90's and most of the 2000's. Not so much now.

We have as a good of a team now that we're likely going to have for awhile (unless payroll increases substantially). I'd rather have the best closer in baseball during the short window we have to win a WS.
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So you'd keep him for the next 2-3 years and let him walk as a FA?
 
Heyward said:
So you'd keep him for the next 2-3 years and let him walk as a FA?
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Yes. And get the pick (which shouldn't be undervalued, imo).

Obviously if someone overpays, you have to trade Kimbrell. I would trade anyone if the other team was willing to overpay enough. But I just can't imgine anyone giving us enough for Kimbrell to really make it worth us trading him.
 
Carp said:
But it has been pretty bad in the past. These types of things can be cyclical. We were crazy good at developing star position players in the 90's and most of the 2000's. Not so much now.

We have as a good of a team now that we're likely going to have for awhile (unless payroll increases substantially). I'd rather have the best closer in baseball during the short window we have to win a WS.
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I believe that there is still a substantial pipeline of top end bullpen arms in the minor leagues that have a chance at being a closer. Nobody will be as good as Kimbrel but you don't need a Kimbrel to win a world series.
 
thethe said:
We can find someone who will be 90-95% as effective as Kimbrel for very little while getting top prospects in return for him. Its a no brainer.
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It was a given that this article would get your attention.

While any idea is worth considering, and the presence of an elite closer is not necessary for a championship caliber team, there's a lot of skepticism on my part that any team would be willing to offer this major haul of prospects that you kept insisting would happen. This has no precedence. If the team could prove this assumption wrong, then by all means, see what the market would offer. Walden could do it until Graham is properly groomed.
 
It will kill me to ever see Kimbrel pitch for another team.

I remember going to watch Heyward and Freeman play in AA in Cattanooga. I watched Kimbrel pitch the 9th and was on 1st row pretty much behind home plate. It was the most dominating stuff I have ever seen from a pitcher and I have seen a lot of good ones up close. Those poor AA hitters had zero chance.

I have loved him ever since and he has turned out to be exactly what I thought he would.
 
There is no precedence because a closer with the resume of Kimbrel has never been traded this early in his career with so many years of control. Its definitely fair to say we don't know but I believe that teams will offer a lot.
 
thethe said:
There is no precedence because a closer with the resume of Kimbrel has never been traded this early in his career with so many years of control. Its definitely fair to say we don't know but I believe that teams will offer a lot.
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That prospect soup youve been eating is pretty heady stuff. As much as I hate to, have to agree with Knucksie in that closers just dont bring that much in return.

Ill refer to Gammons comment Monday, "Teams all look at closers as being pretty much fungible. We wont see anymore Papelbon 14M/4 again."
 
nsacpi said:
Barring injury, Kimbrel is going to beat that contract when he hits free agency.
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So, you went to the GM meetings last week? You on speed dial with the GMs like Gammons is? Your crystal ball get some new life? How about giving me some lottery numbers to play. Maybe Ill buy my own team and hire you.

J/K
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
So, you went to the GM meetings last week? You on speed dial with the GMs like Gammons is? Your crystal ball get some new life? How about giving me some lottery numbers to play. Maybe Ill buy my own team and hire you.

J/K
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No, I'm just smarter about certain things than Gammons. Soriano is being paid 11M per year (14 mil but you have to discount due to some of it being deferred) on the deal he signed with the Gnats last off-season. That's a fairly recent comparison. You don't think Kimbrel will do 3M better than Soriano on the open market? Pshaw.

How much would you predict the Tigers or some other team will be paying Joe Nathan? I'm curious.
 
I'd guess 2/24 or so for Nathan.

And yes, Kimbrel barring injuries will break Paps deal assuming he hit the market, easy.
 
nsacpi said:
No, I'm just smarter about certain things than Gammons. Soriano is being paid 11M per year (14 mil but you have to discount due to some of it being deferred) on the deal he signed with the Gnats last off-season. That's a fairly recent comparison. You don't think Kimbrel will do 3M better than Soriano on the open market? Pshaw.

How much would you predict the Tigers or some other team will be paying Joe Nathan? I'm curious.
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Second part first: Maybe 2/20M max. Illitch is in his own world.

I think what Gammons is saying is that GMs have finally concluded that #1: Closers are too easy to find (fungible part) and with the increasing money to front line players (stars, starters etc) there is just no need to pay enormous amount to what amounts to part time players.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Second part first: Maybe 2/20M max. Illitch is in his own world.

I think what Gammons is saying is that GMs have finally concluded that #1: Closers are too easy to find (fungible part) and with the increasing money to front line players (stars, starters etc) there is just no need to pay enormous amount to what amounts to part time players.
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Yes. But there are still some dumb GM's out there who are slow to catch on. Look at what the Dodgers signed Brandon League for last year. Brandon League!?!?
 
Its just a shame the Yankees don't have prospects. Could probably get a nice amount so he could replace Rivera.

There is no way to compare any situation to Kimbrel. His last three years are arguably the best three years a closer has ever had. Actually, it probably isn't close. Historical precedence does not apply here.
 
nsacpi said:
Yes. But there are still some dumb GM's out there who are slow to catch on. Look at what the Dodgers signed Brandon League for last year. Brandon League!?!?
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Speaking of the Dodgers, where did they find Kenley Jansen? The Cardinals and Rosenthal. Detroit got how far? And with a disfunctional bullpen. Hell, half the posters on this very board are already putting Graham in the closers role and the other half are carrying stiffies for Simmons after the AFL.

And Ill bet you wont find one dumb GM is the bunch. maybe some dumb owners like Moreno.
 
thethe said:
Its just a shame the Yankees don't have prospects. Could probably get a nice amount so he could replace Rivera.

There is no way to compare any situation to Kimbrel. His last three years are arguably the best three years a closer has ever had. Actually, it probably isn't close. Historical precedence does not apply here.
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No doubt but where are the end results for the team. Personal results are great but there comes a time when the team comes first. See Uggla, Dan.
 
Rein in the madness. Put in a salary cap in MLB!! Or else, just cut down the leagues to 4 teams each (with the largest payrolls) and have your season.
 
(1) Detroit's problems in the bullpen weren't closer-centric. The whole bullpen had problems.

(2) I don't drink the Moneyball-flavored kool-aid. Average closers are fungible. Elite closers are not. Bill James used to deconstruct saves into different categories of difficulty and I'd be curious to see what the difficulty rating for Kimbrel's saves has been since he's closed for us. Former Twins' manager Tom Kelly used to talk about the psychological value of an elite closer and how an erratic closer (and other elements of a bad bullpen) erode a team's confidence. One can't measure that and in an era where data is king, queen, and the entire court, that angle is often downplayed. The Braves' margin for error isn't that great (at least it isn't in my view), which may make Kimbrel more valuable to us than to others.

(3) If someone deems Kimbrel the next Mariano, there will be a market for him. I just don't want to see Millwood redux, where Kimbrel is shed primarily for budget purposes.

(4) All this said, I wouldn't be surprised if Kimbrel is moved.
 
No way Kimbrel is traded this offseason unless some team makes a crazy offer...like the Rangers offering Profar. The Braves can certainly afford to pay the best closer in the game $7M in 2014 while they compete for a WS title.

Trading Kimbrel now may be maximizing his trade value, but it is not maximizing his overall value to the franchise because you are ignoring his value to a WS contender NOW.

I think we see Kimbrel dealt this season at the deadline if the Braves fall out of the race (highly unlikely), or next offseason when he will be slated to make $10M+ and will actually become a problem on the payroll. Right now he is affordable and the best at what he does, so a WS contender like the Braves needs to keep him.
 
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