ESPN Insider: Why the Braves should consider trading Kimbrel this winter.

Trading Kimbrel this off-season is one of those ideas that's undeniably clever, but probably doesn't translate into the real world. I'd totally do it in my Baseball Mogul franchise, but there's just too much working against it.

We won 96 games last year, which is a hell of a thing. We have legitimate championship aspirations. Kimbrel is awesome. He's going to make a lot more money in 2014, but certainly not enough to bankrupt the organization.

There's a conflict, I think, in saying, "Kimbrel's great, but he's going to make a lot of money and closers don't have ton of value" and then following it up with "Therefore, we should trade Kimbrel for a ton of value." Is it possible that some team out there is so desperate and dumb that they still value a closer like it's 1997? I suppose. But it strikes me as unlikely that we'll get a Konerko-for-Shaw trade.

Any Kimbrel trade (hell, any trade at all) should be made at least with some eye toward maximizing our chances of winning a World Series soon. I don't think we're going to get enough Major League value in return for Kimbrel for any trade to qualify on that score. And I don't think we're in a position to start trading away MLB All-Stars for prospects.
 
50PoundHead said:
(1) Detroit's problems in the bullpen weren't closer-centric. The whole bullpen had problems.

(2) I don't drink the Moneyball-flavored kool-aid. Average closers are fungible. Elite closers are not. Bill James used to deconstruct saves into different categories of difficulty and I'd be curious to see what the difficulty rating for Kimbrel's saves has been since he's closed for us. Former Twins' manager Tom Kelly used to talk about the psychological value of an elite closer and how an erratic closer (and other elements of a bad bullpen) erode a team's confidence. One can't measure that and in an era where data is king, queen, and the entire court, that angle is often downplayed. The Braves' margin for error isn't that great (at least it isn't in my view), which may make Kimbrel more valuable to us than to others.

(3) If someone deems Kimbrel the next Mariano, there will be a market for him. I just don't want to see Millwood redux, where Kimbrel is shed primarily for budget purposes.

(4) All this said, I wouldn't be surprised if Kimbrel is moved.
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A lot of "in-between" average closers and elite closers. A very good closer will get the job done.

Not sure how many of the rest of you like hockey, too (think Zito does?), but there's an analogy here. The "conventional wisdom" used to be that to win a Stanley Cup, a team needed an All World goalie, or at least one who got hot at the right time. In the last few years, that thinking's changed with the results. A decent goalie with an effective defense, and enough scoring punch, can get the job done. For baseball, Rivera is about the only one in this class of closers, from a team having won a WS.

Same thing here. The Braves certainly have proven able to assemble an effective bullpen from 7th inning onward. Losing Kimbrel wouldn't be a franchise killer, but nothing thethe says is going to convince me that there's a short list of potential suitors, lining up with a stable of top prospects to offer in return. GM's realize that $10MM or so could address other areas of the bullpen, instead of investing heavily on just the closer.
 
Enscheff said:
No way Kimbrel is traded this offseason unless some team makes a crazy offer...like the Rangers offering Profar. The Braves can certainly afford to pay the best closer in the game $7M in 2014 while they compete for a WS title.

Trading Kimbrel now may be maximizing his trade value, but it is not maximizing his overall value to the franchise because you are ignoring his value to a WS contender NOW.

I think we see Kimbrel dealt this season at the deadline if the Braves fall out of the race (highly unlikely), or next offseason when he will be slated to make $10M+ and will actually become a problem on the payroll. Right now he is affordable and the best at what he does, so a WS contender like the Braves needs to keep him.
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+1. I need to clarify that I don't expect the Braves to trade Kimbrel, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did. When he hits the eighth digit in annual salary is when the possibility of a move becomes greater.
 
50PoundHead said:
+1. I need to clarify that I don't expect the Braves to trade Kimbrel, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did. When he hits the eighth digit in annual salary is when the possibility of a move becomes greater.
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It's also important to realize there's a difference between saying, "the Braves should explore trading Kimbrel" and, "the Braves should trade Kimbrel".

If the offer is there, trade him. If the offers don't blow Wren's socks off, keep him. Simple as that really.
 
thethe said:
Who has suggested trading Kimbrel for anything less than a huge return?
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Anyone who would trade him for a package including a Castellanos or Profar or similar.

Kimbrel is historically elite. The return would have to be immense. Major league ready top-shelf talent, and top prospects, AND salary relief.

I can't really think of a team that has the potential to do that.

Los Angeles?
 
Hawk said:
Anyone who would trade him for a package including a Castellanos or Profar or similar.

Kimbrel is historically elite. The return would have to be immense. Major league ready top-shelf talent, and top prospects, AND salary relief.

I can't really think of a team that has the potential to do that.

Los Angeles?
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What are you expecting?

A Trout or Harper type, LOL!
 
Hawk said:
Anyone who would trade him for a package including a Castellanos or Profar or similar.

Kimbrel is historically elite. The return would have to be immense. Major league ready top-shelf talent, and top prospects, AND salary relief.

I can't really think of a team that has the potential to do that.

Los Angeles?
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This time last year Profar, #1 prospect in all baseball. Castellanos #4 prospect in all baseball. One plays 2nd the other 3rd. Guess what we need now and in the near future.
 
This is all well and good as a hypothetical exercise but the underlying cancer is still money. The day the Braves have to trade Kimbrel for salary relief (not wowed by a ridiculous offer), the day they cannot afford to keep more than 2 of their good, young players (a.k.a. Heyward, Freeman Simmons, etc.), the day that the FO cannot field the same winning team for more than a year or two due to salaries: that will be the day I just walk away. Some sense of sanity has to infect MLB soon or this "fan" will give it all up.
 
bravebonebook said:
This is all well and good as a hypothetical exercise but the underlying cancer is still money. The day the Braves have to trade Kimbrel for salary relief (not wowed by a ridiculous offer), the day they cannot afford to keep more than 2 of their good, young players (a.k.a. Heyward, Freeman Simmons, etc.), the day that the FO cannot field the same winning team for more than a year or two due to salaries: that will be the day I just walk away. Some sense of sanity has to infect MLB soon or this "fan" will give it all up.
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They can afford all 3 of them and then some, it takes two to tango.
 
Hawk said:
Anyone who would trade him for a package including a Castellanos or Profar or similar.

Kimbrel is historically elite. The return would have to be immense. Major league ready top-shelf talent, and top prospects, AND salary relief.

I can't really think of a team that has the potential to do that.

Los Angeles?
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Umm, hate to break it to you, but Profar IS an immense return for Kimbrel. If Texas offers that trade Wren needs to pull the trigger before they change their mind.

The value you are putting on Kimbrel is past absurd, and verging on laughable. I can only assume you are kidding.
 
Enscheff said:
Umm, hate to break it to you, but Profar IS an immense return for Kimbrel. If Texas offers that trade Wren needs to pull the trigger before they change their mind.

The value you are putting on Kimbrel is past absurd, and verging on laughable. I can only assume you are kidding.
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Profar for Kimbrel straight up? Are you Rob Ford'ing it?

Kimbrel is a franchise player. Profar has less than 500 major league ABs.

Don't think it can spelled out any more plainly.
 
Hawk said:
Profar for Kimbrel straight up? Are you Rob Ford'ing it?

Kimbrel is a franchise player. Profar has less than 500 major league ABs.

Don't think it can spelled out any more plainly.
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I'd think really hard about Profar for Ck. Profar for CK and Uggla I'd do before we hung up the phone.

Profar is going to be very good for a long time. He'll provide much more value than 2 closers.
 
Hawk said:
Profar for Kimbrel straight up? Are you Rob Ford'ing it?

Kimbrel is a franchise player. Profar has less than 500 major league ABs.

Don't think it can spelled out any more plainly.
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Our biggest longterm needs are 2B/3B.

Plug in Profar at one of those.

Kimbrel pitches in 60-70 games a year, franchise player is highly debateable.

And if Texas offered Profar, probably wont happen, i'd do that for Kimbrel in a second.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I'd think really hard about Profar for Ck. Profar for CK and Uggla I'd do before we hung up the phone.

Profar is going to be very good for a long time. He'll provide much more value than 2 closers.
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I'd drive Uggla to Texas if that were offered. I was toying with that thought as well (bundling Uggla with Kimbrel).
 
Hawk said:
Damn, somebody pass me the kool-aid cup.
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You're overrating his value.

He's good, yes, but you arent gonna get a Trout/Harper/Kershaw like you seem to think you'd only trade him for.

Value wise.
 
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