GDT 8/25: K For the S

[Super]

Staying out of FA RPs is often the right move. But again, we have no idea who was on the trade market and what the prices were. It makes answering the question of "who should we have gone after" completely impossible. I could come up with a list of relievers and the response would be "There's nothing showing that guy was available." It's a pointless exercise.

Since we don't have eyes on that, all we can do is look at results over time and see how AA does addressing needs over the course of several offseasons.

AA failed to improve the pitching staff last offseason. That's not in doubt. Whether it was his fault or just the way the market worked out is a different question.

so your criticism is that AA didn't maybe trade for guys that may or may not have been available. your criticism is based on absolutely nothing but total speculation. and you sincerely don't see how dumb that is?

i'm sure AA was relying on organic improvement from the young staff and staying out of the RP mess until it was more settled and he could get guys in trades on shorter deals. it's worked out pretty nicely.

 

[Super]

I'm more interested to revisit the theory that AA is a yes man trying to pad the wallets of the Liberty execs.

good bit (and counting) of absolutely definitive statements made that turned out wrong. rough year for the strikeman.

 

[striker42]

so your criticism is that AA didn't maybe trade for guys that may or may not have been available. your criticism is based on absolutely nothing but total speculation. and you sincerely don't see how dumb that is?

i'm sure AA was relying on organic improvement from the young staff and staying out of the RP mess until it was more settled and he could get guys in trades on shorter deals. it's worked out pretty nicely.

My criticism is based on ending the offseason with zero improvement to an area that needed improvement. Again, it might have been the market that tied his hands. We'll see how he does in the future.

 

[Tapate50]

I'm more interested to revisit the theory that AA is a yes man trying to pad the wallets of the Liberty execs.

OOF. That's a big Crow burger to swallow.

 

[Southcack77]

Staying out of FA RPs is often the right move. But again, we have no idea who was on the trade market and what the prices were. It makes answering the question of "who should we have gone after" completely impossible. I could come up with a list of relievers and the response would be "There's nothing showing that guy was available." It's a pointless exercise.

Since we don't have eyes on that, all we can do is look at results over time and see how AA does addressing needs over the course of several offseasons.

AA failed to improve the pitching staff last offseason. That's not in doubt. Whether it was his fault or just the way the market worked out is a different question.

We have a very good idea of who was available on the trade market.

 

[striker42]

good bit (and counting) of absolutely definitive statements made that turned out wrong. rough year for the strikeman.

You remember me making vastly more definitive statements than I actually make. I'm usually pretty forthcoming when I'm speculating based on available evidence.

I could speculate as to what psychological reasons there are for you following people around on internet message boards and badgering them to make yourself feel superior but that would require far more effort than responding to your petty jibes is worth.

 

[striker42]

We have a very good idea of who was available on the trade market.

With AA at the helm, no one has an idea of who's available on the trade market. The guy is known for pulling off trades no one sees coming.

 

[Carp]

lol. same story every single time.
so many of the RPs signed this offseason have turned out terribly. AA knew that happens a lot, so stayed out of it. not only logical to back away, but very wise. the team was good enough to hold up (more than good enough, as it turns out) until AA could assess mid-season what needed to be done. he addressed it, and it's worked out beautifully.

if striker had his way, AA would likely be sitting on a couple of bad 2+ (2 years at best) year RP contracts.
of course, i've yet to see the answer to the question: who would you have signed?
and of course, he now has the benefit of hindsight. pick the couple of good contracts out of the sea of now-terrible contracts and look like a genius. unfortunately it doesn't work like that, AA very clearly made the right call, but i guess it's hard to admit for some.

It's a valid argument that the BP should have been addressed a little better in the off-season. And multi-year deals to closers wasn't the only way to upgrade, though I was strongly in favor of Kimbrel, Ottavino, and Britton. Kimbrel is impossible to know how he'd have been if he'd have signed early, but I also wanted to sign him in June, so I'll gladly say I was wrong on that one; however, Ottavino and Britton have been very good.

Among the cheaper options, I know I called for us to sign Adam Warren, Tyler Clipppard, Jake Diekman, or Greg Holland. Clippard has been fantastic. Diekman and Holland have been just ok but worthy of their contracts. Warren would have been a bad move, but at 2 million, I would have risked it given his track record as a reliever.

Past that, it would have been nice just to even sign more than 1 vet to a minor deal with an invite to ST and see what happens. Liriano, Bud Norris, Luis Avilan, Jason Hammell, Homer Bailey, etc. I know the likelihood wasn't high that these type of players would work out, but having options is nice and the risk is minimal.

 

[Super]

It's a valid argument that the BP should have been addressed a little better in the off-season. And multi-year deals to closers wasn't the only way to upgrade, though I was strongly in favor of Kimbrel, Ottavino, and Britton. Kimbrel is impossible to tell how he'd have been if he'd have signed early, but I also wanted to sign him in June, so I'll gladly say I was wrong on that one. Ottavino andd Britton have been very good, however.

Among the cheaper options, I know I called for us to sign Adam Warren, Tyler Clipppard, Jake Diekman, or Greg Holland. Clippard has been fantastic, Diekman and Holland have been just ok but worthy of their contract, Warren would have been a bad move, but at 2 million, I would have risked it given his track record as a reliever.

Past that, it would have been nice just to even sign more than 1 vet to a minor deal with an invite to ST.

Britton is striking out 7.39/9 and walking 5.30. 4.03 FIP and 3.83 xFIP. signed for 2 more years. that contract will likely be bad for longer than it's good.

Ottavino is walking 5.30 per 9 with a 3.18 FIP and 4.17 xFIP. he's striking out a ton of guys tho. still, that's another 2 years on that deal that you have to hope work out. they were also both signed by the Yankees...who have quite a bit more money to play with than the Braves. they can more easily afford to make those kind of mistakes, or have guys not work out.

i'd argue most of the guys who signed on minimum deals didn't look much better than what the Braves had in their org. already, and that's why they weren't pursued. again: you would have had to pick the exact right guys for the right prices in order for it to have been worth it. playing that game is risky, and i'm very happy AA didn't. he knew what he was doing.

 

[Super]

You remember me making vastly more definitive statements than I actually make. I'm usually pretty forthcoming when I'm speculating based on available evidence.

I could speculate as to what psychological reasons there are for you following people around on internet message boards and badgering them to make yourself feel superior but that would require far more effort than responding to your petty jibes is worth.

lol, following you around.......you're posting in a GDT that nearly everyone on these boards reads. i happened across yet another dumb post by you.
AA very obviously failed this offseason, lol. keep rolling with that. you were clearly very right.

 

[Carp]

Britton is striking out 7.39/9 and walking 5.30. 4.03 FIP and 3.83 xFIP. signed for 2 more years. that contract will likely be bad for longer than it's good.

Ottavino is walking 5.30 per 9 with a 3.18 FIP and 4.17 xFIP. he's striking out a ton of guys tho. still, that's another 2 years on that deal that you have to hope work out. they were also both signed by the Yankees...who have quite a bit more money to play with than the Braves. they can more easily afford to make those kind of mistakes, or have guys not work out.

i'd argue most of the guys who signed on minimum deals didn't look much better than what the Braves had in their org. already, and that's why they weren't pursued. again: you would have had to pick the exact right guys for the right prices in order for it to have been worth it. playing that game is risky, and i'm very happy AA didn't. he knew what he was doing.

The point with Ottavino and Britton is those were who I was most high on and they have been doing well. But again, signing an expensive closer type wasn't our only option to improve the BP.

I think Holland, Clippard, and Diekman were a good bit better than the majority of options heading into ST. And were cheap to boot. Clippard signed a minor league deal, so the risk with him was even less than the other 2. And I think anytime you're gonna cheap on the BP (which isn't a terrible plan) then you better have plenty of options and load up on the Bud Norris/Josh Tomlin types who have minimal risk.

 

[striker42]

lol, following you around.......you're posting in a GDT that nearly everyone on these boards reads. i happened across yet another dumb post by you.
AA very obviously failed this offseason, lol. keep rolling with that. you were clearly very right.

Not just this thread man.

AA should have added pitching in the offseason. Specifically bullpen help. No pitching help was added. This is a failure.

Again, whether that failure was his fault or just the way the market played out is a different question. It's entirely possible AA made the absolute right calls in every decision he made. The end result though was that we failed to fill a need in the offseason.

I'll be the first person to say he's done everything possible to try to fix the pitching staff since. There's no doubt about that either.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think there are some valid arguments on both sides. We all knew more needed to be done to the pen going into the offseason and it wasn’t addresses. However, I think it is fair to say AA hoped there would be some organic growth with guys like sobot, minter, Carle, winkler amount others. I also think he held some money back to make improvements to the pen in season (possibly Craig).

So it is fair to say AA could have done more but that criticism should pale in comparison with the praise he should get on having to rebuild the entire pen from opening day.

I am more than happy to say I was wrong on AA. He really played the safe but shrewd card perfectly. I have no huge complaints about our GM at the moment.

Also would like to point out that I love our new pitching coach. We gave chuckle a lot of grief last year but I rarely hear any praise for Kranitz. He seems to be getting good results from guys.

 

[Heyward]

Swanson activated, Duvall optioned, Riley promoted to Gwinnett.

 

[Hulavol]

Neither. It’s loads and loads of testosterone

It’s this.... and expert gamethread creation.
That cannot be stressed enough. It may not show up in the stat lines... but Chop Country has been a very integral piece of AA’s plan.

 

[nsacpi]

I think there are some valid arguments on both sides.

Also some good people on both sides.

I lobbied hard for Bud Norris, but maybe he wouldn't have worked out.

 

[Enscheff]

You remember me making vastly more definitive statements than I actually make. I'm usually pretty forthcoming when I'm speculating based on available evidence.

I could speculate as to what psychological reasons there are for you following people around on internet message boards and badgering them to make yourself feel superior but that would require far more effort than responding to your petty jibes is worth.

And yet you've responded to every single comment in this thread. Hmmm...

Fact of the matter is AA was 100% correct to maintain financial flexibility, no matter how much it pissed most of us off a few months ago. I never wanted him to spend big on the BP and rotation because I also knew how volatile those arms are, but I did want him to sign longer term deals for position players like Brantley, Grandall, and Cutch.

Problem is, my preferred plan wouldn't have allowed for the acquisition of DK, who pretty much rescued the rotation at the time of his signing. I thought Folty was a lock for 3+ wins. I thought Wright was going to step in and be a 3 win guy. I figured Gausman was a 2-3 win mainstay. Then...none of that happened and my plan would have left very little room for adding to the rotation.

AA has showed us that minimizing the long term commitment to volatile players (position players over 30, any pitcher...especially BP arms) coupled with building lots of MLB-quality depth throughout the 40 man roster is the optimal strategy for a 162 game season. Such a strategy gives a lesser chance of winning the postseason once in, but increases the chances of actually getting in. I'll gladly take continued postseason appearances over a 5% bump in WS odds for a given season.

 

[BeanieAntics]

And yet you've responded to every single comment in this thread. Hmmm...

Fact of the matter is AA was 100% correct to maintain financial flexibility, no matter how much it pissed most of us off a few months ago. I never wanted him to spend big on the BP and rotation because I also knew how volatile those arms are, but I did want him to sign longer term deals for position players like Brantley, Grandall, and Cutch.

Problem is, my preferred plan wouldn't have allowed for the acquisition of DK, who pretty much rescued the rotation at the time of his signing. I thought Folty was a lock for 3+ wins. I thought Wright was going to step in and be a 3 win guy. I figured Gausman was a 2-3 win mainstay. Then...none of that happened and my plan would have left very little room for adding to the rotation.

AA has showed us that minimizing the long term commitment to volatile players (position players over 30, any pitcher...especially BP arms) coupled with building lots of MLB-quality depth throughout the 40 man roster is the optimal strategy for a 162 game season. Such a strategy gives a lesser chance of winning the postseason once in, but increases the chances of actually getting in. I'll gladly take continued postseason appearances over a 5% bump in WS odds for a given season.

This is the thing that I love the most about AA's team building philosophy. He recognizes that you can't really affect your postseason aspirations enough to justify an "all in" approach. At least you can't justify it with a mid-market payroll. His goal is to extend the competitive window for as long as he possibly can and I think that is exactly the right strategy.

 

[AerchAngel]

AA, not me, says that he he's throwing dice in the playoffs and whomever is the hottest, wins.

We had 14 straight appearances and 1 win.

You have to be hot to win it.

 

[Super]

The point with Ottavino and Britton is those were who I was most high on and they have been doing well. But again, signing an expensive closer type wasn't our only option to improve the BP.

I think Holland, Clippard, and Diekman were a good bit better than the majority of options heading into ST. And were cheap to boot. Clippard signed a minor league deal, so the risk with him was even less than the other 2. And I think anytime you're gonna cheap on the BP (which isn't a terrible plan) then you better have plenty of options and load up on the Bud Norris/Josh Tomlin types who have minimal risk.

Again, with Ottavino and Britton: there are legit concerns there. having those guys for 2 more years at their prices would not be good for the Braves. Britton especially. he's making a ton and his k/bb ratio is terrible. whatever ERA success he's had isn't going to last, and it could, and probably will, get very bad. the Yankees can take those risks. the Braves shouldn't.

disagree on Holland being better. guy was rough in 2018. also Diekman and Clippard were roughly Shane Carle last year and both have had their issues recently. IMO the Braves had some options just like those guys. the names have been spelled out. none of those vets were looking like anything much different. i think AA saw it the same way. Norris still hasn't pitched in 2019, FWIW.