GDT 9/2/19: Happy Labor Day!!!

Braves1976 said:
You said the same last time but it was our righties that hit him best and that has been a trend against him lately in his struggles.
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Sure. I'm willing to stick with my take. I am a firm believer in giving more weight to bigger sample sizes over smaller ones. If Ryu had somehow become a significantly different pitcher this year I'd reconsider. But he is still relying heavily on that changeup.

Eric Hinske once had a season where he hit lefty pitching better than righty pitching. Didn't change the fact that the right play against him was to bring in the lefty when he was up.
 
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nsacpi said:
Sure. I'm willing to stick with my take. I am a firm believer in giving more weight to bigger sample sizes over smaller ones. If Ryu had somehow become a significantly different pitcher this year I'd reconsider. But he is still relying heavily on that changeup.
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Markakis has struggled against him and lefties in general and shouldn't start against him or Kershaw. Now against Walker Buehler, now that is a match-up that favors Markakis and a game I support starting him if he is healthy and sharp. The sample is obviously smaller head-to-head but it is clear Markakis has issues with lefties and that sample should rule here. Just as it should with Joyce despite his small sample of success this year against lefties.
 
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nsacpi said:
Sure. I'm willing to stick with my take. I am a firm believer in giving more weight to bigger sample sizes over smaller ones. If Ryu had somehow become a significantly different pitcher this year I'd reconsider. But he is still relying heavily on that changeup.

Eric Hinske once had a season where he hit lefty pitching better than righty pitching. Didn't change the fact that the right play against him was to bring in the lefty when he was up.
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The Hinske example fits the Joyce example this year, no disagreement there. But expecting Markakis who has struggled a lot vs lefties this year to be a better match-up vs Ryu than a lefty masher righty who has homered off him a few times already in the past is where we disagree.
 
Braves1976 said:
The Hinske example fits the Joyce example this year, no disagreement there. But expecting Markakis who has struggled a lot vs lefties this year to be a better match-up vs Ryu than a lefty masher righty who has homered off him a few times already in the past is where we disagree.
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Just a general observation about players with reverse splits. Keep in mind the overwhelming majority of hitters and pitchers have conventional splits. So when a pitcher generates reverse splits over his career he is doing this for the most part against hitters with conventional splits. In other words, Ryu has mainly faced RHH with conventional splits and LHH with conventional splits in his career. There is something specific to his way of pitching that induces LHHs with conventional splits (of which McCann, Markakis, Joyce and Inciarte would be examples) to do better against him than RHHs with conventional splits (of which Duvall, Riley and Flowers are examples).

One additional observation about his having conventional splits in 2019. He has done very well against LHHs this year. But that's over the equivalent of 42 innings. Think of how volatile reliever data are from year to year. Ryu has faced LHHs this year in the equivalent of two-thirds the sample size for a regularly used reliever in a full season. He's been helped over this small sample by lefties having a BABIP of .214 against him. This is why splits data in a single season can be misleading. With small samples you can get crazy results due to BABIP or HR/FB fluctuating wildly.
 
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Against Ryu it’s a matter of batter platoon split vs pitcher platoon split. I have a hard time believing Markakis is the correct play vs Ryu, but I haven’t dug into the batter/pitcher platoon topic much.
 
Enscheff said:
Against Ryu it’s a matter of batter platoon split vs pitcher platoon split. I have a hard time believing Markakis is the correct play vs Ryu, but I haven’t dug into the batter/pitcher platoon topic much.
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Just keep in mind the overwhelming majority of hitters have conventional splits. A pitcher like Ryu over his career has something about the way he pitches that allows lefties with conventional splits to outperform righties with conventional splits. With Ryu there is no mystery as to why that is the case. He has elite control which allows him to hit the lower outside corner or pitch just outside the strike zone when ahead in the count. And his best pitch is his change. This is the classic profile for lefty pitchers who generate reverse splits.

If there is some additional digging to do it would be along the lines of looking for right handed hitters who hit the change well. If say Flowers or Duvall is a good changeup hitter then sure put them in the lineup against him.
 
nsacpi said:
Just a general observation about players with reverse splits. Keep in mind the overwhelming majority of hitters and pitchers have conventional splits. So when a pitcher generates reverse splits over his career he is doing this for the most part against hitters with conventional splits. In other words, Ryu has mainly faced RHH with conventional splits and LHH with conventional splits in his career. There is something specific to his way of pitching that induces LHHs with conventional splits (of which McCann, Markakis, Joyce and Inciarte would be examples) to do better against him than RHHs with conventional splits (of which Duvall, Riley and Flowers are examples).

One additional observation about his having conventional splits in 2019. He has done very well against LHHs this year. But that's over the equivalent of 42 innings. Think of how volatile reliever data are from year to year. Ryu has faced LHHs this year in the equivalent of two-thirds the sample size for a regularly used reliever in a full season. He's been helped over this small sample by lefties having a BABIP of .214 against him. This is why splits data in a single season can be misleading. With small samples you can get crazy results due to BABIP or HR/FB fluctuating wildly.
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If this was 2017 I'd agree with you as back then Ryu sucked vs lefties and Markakis hit them. Now Markakis doesn't hit lefties (OPS just over .600) and Ryu no longer sucks vs lefties (.326 BAA vs lefties in 2017, .190 BAA vs lefties in 2019).
 
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Braves1976 said:
If this was 2017 I'd agree with you as back then Ryu sucked vs lefties and Markakis hit them. Now Markakis doesn't hit lefties (OPS just over .600) and Ryu no longer sucks vs lefties (.326 BAA vs lefties in 2017, .190 BAA vs lefties in 2019).
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Ryu has not really improved against lefties. He's just gotten very lucky against them in a small sample. A .214 BABIP against will mask a lot of things.
 
Braves1976 said:
Markakis has struggled against him and lefties in general and shouldn't start against him or Kershaw. Now against Walker Buehler, now that is a match-up that favors Markakis and a game I support starting him if he is healthy and sharp. The sample is obviously smaller head-to-head but it is clear Markakis has issues with lefties and that sample should rule here. Just as it should with Joyce despite his small sample of success this year against lefties.
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We haven't won a playoff series in nearly 2 decades, yet we're already trying to figure out the best lineup to use vs the Dodgers in the NLCS. Hmmm....
 
NYCBrave said:
We haven't won a playoff series in nearly 2 decades, yet we're already trying to figure out the best lineup to use vs the Dodgers in the NLCS. Hmmm....
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Wild Card team will have to play the Dodgers in the NLDS, so it makes sense to consider those matchups.
 
NYCBrave said:
We haven't won a playoff series in nearly 2 decades, yet we're already trying to figure out the best lineup to use vs the Dodgers in the NLCS. Hmmm....
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You have a point.

I think we should be rooting pretty strongly for the Cards over the Cubs. I have concerns about seeing Muk and Ender in the lineup against the lefty starters the Cubs have.
 
nsacpi said:
Ryu has not really improved against lefties. He's just gotten very lucky against them in a small sample. A .214 BABIP against will mask a lot of things.
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A pitcher can improve and also be very lucky, his 2017 numbers were terrible against them. So he isn't as great as the .190 BAA suggests. OK I can buy that but I don't buy that he hasn't improved vs lefties since 2017.
 
nsacpi said:
You have a point.

I think we should be rooting pretty strongly for the Cards over the Cubs. I have concerns about seeing Muk and Ender in the lineup against the lefty starters the Cubs have.
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We should have the same concerns vs the Dodgers, even Freeman hasn't hit lefties as good this year but he's hit righties a ton.
 
Braves1976 said:
We should have the same concerns vs the Dodgers, even Freeman hasn't hit lefties as good this year but he's hit righties a ton.
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with Freeman (as with any player) I would look more at his career splits or splits over a 3 year period than splits over the current season to predict how he does the rest of the way in

you know Muk had a period last year where he hit lefties very well...very misleading due to small sample

Ender had one season a few years ago where he hit lefties very well...again misleading and not useful for prediction due to small sample

with splits a single season of data has a lot of noise in it
 
nsacpi said:
with Freeman (as with any player) I would look more at his career splits or splits over a 3 year period than splits over the current season to predict how he does the rest of the way in
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I would too if facing lefties he has past success against.
 
I wanna see the Dodgers and Nats face off in the playoffs bc I think they have the best chance to knock them out.
 
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