Brian McCann

[nsacpi]

Fielder made almost as much as Pujols, do you want to compare those 2?

Pujols had just completed his age 31 season.

Teams are aware of the aging curve, which is why Freeman and Heyward will be so attractive as free agents. They will be unusually young for guys hitting free agency. And of course Trout will trump them in all respects.

We made a mistake not sending Heyward down to AAA for a month at the start of the 2010 season. The Rays did it right with Wil Myers this year.

 

[zitothebrave]

We may not have made the playoffs if they kept Jason down in 2010. Though financially it would have been much better. Same with Freddie.

 

[clvclv]

Looking at it based on their projected 2014 salaries ($4,900,000 for Freeman and $4,500,000 for Heyward) I wonder if offering each of them something around 8/$90 million NOW would be much of an overpay at all. $11.25 million AAV for their age 24-32 seasons. Roughly the same AAV Mac got for the final year of his deal here, and would be more than double the overall AAV he got when he signed his team-friendly deal. Would take them both through 2021 and leave them with another shot at a Mac-like deal for their final seasons if they remain healthy.

Using Longoria's salary escalations as a template, his salaries were...

2012 - $4.5 million
2013 - $6.0 million
2014 - $7.5 million
2015 - $11.0 million
2016 - $11.5 million
2017 - $13.0 million
2018 - $13.5 million
2019 - $14.5 million

Offer Freeman and Heyward...

$1 million signing bonus

2014 - $5.0 million
2015 - $7.0 million
2016 - $8.5 million
2017 - $12.0 million
2018 - $12.5 million
2019 - $14.0 million
2020 - $14.5 million
2021 - $15.5 million

 

[nsacpi]

Freeman and Heyward are in slightly different situations due to Heyward being a year ahead.

My guess is Heyward will get $5M and $9M his last two arb years. For his post-arb years I think it is unrealistic to think in terms of anything below $15M AAV and quite possibly unrealistic to think in terms of anything below $20M AAV. Adam Jones for example is averaging $15M for the post arb years of his contract and isn't as good as Heyward, was older at time of signing. Add in inflation and I think it is clear the Adam Jones deal represents an absolute floor on what Heyward should get. In fact if Heyward signs for something like the Adam Jones deal, his agent should probably be sued for malpractice.

For Freeman, my guess is he will make $5M, $8M and $11M for his arb years. As I expressed earlier, I suspect he can expect to do better than Fielder if he hits free agency. If he decides to sign earlier he will obviously take less because of the reduced risk. But like Heyward, $15M/year for the post arb years represents an absolute floor in my opinion.

If we sign them this off-season, I'd say 17-20 M for the post arb years is possible for Heyward and would be a good deal for the club. And I'd say the same thing about 15-17M for Freeman's post arb years. Remember Prado is getting 11M for his post-arb years. Heyward and Freeman are much more valuable than Prado as good a player as he is. They are more valuable than Adam Jones.

I don't think the Longoria comparison is useful because he signed extremely early in his career. He was very far from free agency. So he was gaining more in terms of reduced risk. Heyward and Freeman have already navigated through four and three years of their careers and are now at are now at a much closer point to free agency (which means also less risk of their not getting that big contract). The Longaria comparison is more relevant to someone like Simmons, who is a full five years from free agency.

 

[clvclv]

Freeman and Heyward are in slightly different situations due to Heyward being a year ahead.

My guess is Heyward will get $5M and $9M his last two arb years. After that I think it is unrealistic to think in terms of anything below $15M AAV and quite possibly unrealistic to think in terms of anything below $20M AAV. Adam Jones for example is averaging $15M for the post arb years of his contract and isn't as good as Heyward, was older at time of signing. Add in inflation and I think it is clear the Adam Jones deal represents an absolute floor on what Heyward should get. In fact if Heyward signs for something like the Adam Jones deal, his agent should probably be sued for malpractice.

For Freeman, my guess is he will make $4M, $7M and $10M for his arb years. As I expressed earlier, I suspect he can expect to do better than Fielder if he hits free agency. If he decides to sign earlier he will obviously take less because of the reduced risk. But like Heyward, $15M/year for the pos arb years represents an absolute floor in my opinion.

I don't disagree - just using Longoria's extension to point out his progression. Would turn into 8/$96 million with the 2017-2021 seasons at $15 million each following that template.

 

[Heyward]

Not a whole lot out there to buy, and we don't have wise spending habits when we do go shopping.

Was gonna say the same, im not sure what we could spend it on.

Bullpen arm/bench bat, marginal SP upgrade?

 

[nsacpi]

Wren needs to approach these extensions strategically. He needs to have an idea of the order in which to approach these players. And also what represents a fair deal for each. He should start out with a proposal that is shaded in favor of the club and then go through the players. It is important to do it this way because the first deal will represent a precedent of sorts. Another reason to do it this way is that some of the players may be more willing to trade off full market value for the security of staying in Atlanta. We want to discover which ones are willing to do this if any.

I think by virtue of his being the closest to free agency and also because I think he is a bit of a leader on the team, I would approach Heyward first. Maybe around the time arbitration offers are exchanged. Freeman would be next. If nothing comes of negotiations with those two, I would approach Simmons regarding a long term deal. And if none of those three bite on the first round, I would go to Justin Upton.

Now if all four turn down team-friendly deals, I would not give up. I would start the whole process over with something within the range of market value. And approach the players in the same order, and hopefully sign one of them. I wouldn't necessarily want to sign more than one if it was for something in the market value range.

The other key is how long the deals should be. I would focus less on the length of the deals and more on the ages of the players when the deals expire. I would try to have a one-year option at the end. But I would ideally like the deals to expire at around age 32, plus or minus one year. The idea is to have the players still pretty close to their primes. At those ages, we can still make a qualifying offer and potentially pocket a draft pick at the end of the contract. Also if things go well, we could decide the particular player is an iconic, potentially Hall of Famer type who we would try to keep through the end of his career. I'm not saying that necessarily happens but when a player assumes that kind of status for a franchise then you are usually able to work something out.

 

[Heyward]

I love Mike Trout but there is no way he's getting 40 million per year.

I know the baseball market is insane right now but he would probably get 25-30, 40 is ridiculous and not happening.

Regards to Heyward/FF, i could see around 15-20 million for both.

 

[nsacpi]

I love Mike Trout but there is no way he's getting 40 million per year.

I know the baseball market is insane right now but he would probably get 25-30, 40 is ridiculous and not happening.

Regards to Heyward/FF, i could see around 15-20 million for both.

Kershaw is going to get 30 (Greinke just got 24.5 and Kershaw is quite a bit better and younger). Once that happens, it isn't unthinkable for Trout to break 40 once he hits free agency in four years.

 

[Heyward]

Kershaw is going to get 30 (Greinke just got 24.5 and Kershaw is quite a bit better and younger). Once that happens, it isn't unthinkable for Trout to break 40 once he hits free agency in four years.

You dont think the Angels sign him to an extension by then?

 

[nsacpi]

You dont think the Angels sign him to an extension by then?

They will certainly try. Takes two to tango as we are finding out with out own players.

 

[zitothebrave]

They will certainly try. Takes two to tango as we are finding out with out own players.

That's a largely baseless assertion. We just know that they rejected anoffer. It may have been garbage.

 

[Heyward]

They will certainly try. Takes two to tango as we are finding out with out own players.

For sure, no one knows what they offered, or if they want to be with the Braves long-term.

Or they just want to hit the FA market and fullfill their value.

 

[Carp]

I think the market would value both 25-30M/year. Closer to 30 for Jason, closer to 25 for Freddie. Trout would break 40 imo.

Don't be ridiculous.

This ?/WAR stats you keep throwing around, where exactly does it come from? Cause I can't find it anywhere. And it doesn't seem to be accurate at all

Michael Bourn has been a consistent 3.5-4 WAR player and posted a 6+ WAR yr in his walk yr. Where is his 20M/yr contract?

 

[Carp]

Kershaw is going to get 30 (Greinke just got 24.5 and Kershaw is quite a bit better and younger). Once that happens, it isn't unthinkable for Trout to break 40 once he hits free agency in four years.

1. No player has signed a 30 million/yr average contract. Even if Kershaw signs one, that doesn't mean someone else will get it as well. Unless average payrolls increase over 100 million, 30 million per yr contracts won't be discussed.

2. No one is going to give Trout 40 million per. Don't be silly. And you are also assuming Trout to maintain his 9 WAR season average, which isn't likely even for the best of players, especially for a CFer.

 

[yeezus]

1. No player has signed a 30 million/yr average contract. Even if Kershaw signs one, that doesn't mean someone else will get it as well. Unless average payrolls increase over 100 million, 30 million per yr contracts won't be discussed.

2. No one is going to give Trout 40 million per. Don't be silly. And you are also assuming Trout to maintain his 9 WAR season average, which isn't likely even for the best of players, especially for a CFer.

I agree with you for the most part, except about Trout. He's the best player we've seen in some time and he's super young. He has all the tools to be all-time great and has proven it.

 

[nsacpi]

1. No player has signed a 30 million/yr average contract. Even if Kershaw signs one, that doesn't mean someone else will get it as well. Unless average payrolls increase over 100 million, 30 million per yr contracts won't be discussed.

2. No one is going to give Trout 40 million per. Don't be silly. And you are also assuming Trout to maintain his 9 WAR season average, which isn't likely even for the best of players, especially for a CFer.

I'm assuming there is some regression on Trout's part to the 7-8 WAR range.

 

[Dunit24]

I'm assuming there is some regression on Trout's part to the 7-8 WAR range.

What scares me is player salaries are rising through the roof, while our team payroll isnt.

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

 

[bravebonebook]

Will there ever be another player to suit up just for the Braves for their entire career? I say Chipper will be the last one for a VERY long time if it even ever happens again...Guess they'll be making some new 'In My Own Words' episodes now that Hudson and BMac have exited.