Official Offseason Thread

Thought for the day: While doing his work this off-season AA will have in mind what he would like the team to look like by the end of the 2020 season more than what it will look like at the start of the season.

This is especially relevant for positions where in-house options close to being major league ready start the season in AAA.

I have in mind the outfield. With the rosters expanding to 26, we have room to do a bit more platooning. By the end of 2020 we could have 2 platoons in the outfield with Acuna the only guy playing every day. From the left side there are Markakis and Ender to start the season (but potentially Waters--who hits better from the left side--by season end). From the right side you have Duvall (plus by season end potentially Riley and Pache).

That's a lot of options for the outfield. A lot of in-house options that could come in play by the end of the season.

Starting pitching is another area where the composition of the rotation will likely change between the end of spring training and the end of the season. In particular, it makes sense to go slow on Anderson and let him have a month or two in AAA. So one of the rotation spots coming out of spring training is likely to be filled by someone who is a place holder of sorts.
 
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Hudson2 said:
Hamilton should never be a starter on any team
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You're talking about 5-6 weeks to start the 2020 season so you can game Pache's clock.

Ender hit .253/.318/.367/.685 with 6 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 SBs in April of 2019, and .176/.282/.235/.517 with 5 runs, 3 RBIs, and 0 SBs in May of 2019. He was more-or-less non-existent on offense. There's little reason to think Hamilton couldn't provide the same thing - DEFENSE - for 6 weeks until Pache or Waters is promoted. Bring Ortega back, leave Acuna in CF, and go with the double-platoon of Ortega/Riley and Joyce/Culberson if you like.

The point many made earlier is abundantly clear - you have no shot at bringing Donaldson back and adding Grandal if you also intend to upgrade the rotation and pen if you don't go cheap in a couple spots. Bringing Flowers, Markakis, and Ender back will keep you from doing that - not to mention they'll provide you very little on offense in the first place. The money just isn't there. Go cheap with strong defensive options in their spots (Hedges/Hamilton/Joyce/Ortega are just as strong if not stronger than Flow/Inciarte/Markakis) because the offensive upgrade from Mac to Grandal easily makes up for the production you might lose. The rotation doesn't take a step back going from Keuchel to Bumgarner, and the kids can replace Teheran cheaply. There's not much doubt that Smith would significantly upgrade the pen, and if you could somehow get a healthy season from O'Day it could be a real strength.
 
clvclv said:
You're talking about 5-6 weeks to start the 2020 season so you can game Pache's clock.

Ender hit .253/.318/.367/.685 with 6 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 SBs in April of 2019, and .176/.282/.235/.517 with 5 runs, 3 RBIs, and 0 SBs in May of 2019. He was more-or-less non-existent on offense. There's little reason to think Hamilton couldn't provide the same thing - DEFENSE - for 6 weeks until Pache or Waters is promoted. Bring Ortega back, leave Acuna in CF, and go with the double-platoon of Ortega/Riley and Joyce/Culberson if you like.

The point many made earlier is abundantly clear - you have no shot at bringing Donaldson back and adding Grandal if you also intend to upgrade the rotation and pen if you don't go cheap in a couple spots. Bringing Flowers, Markakis, and Ender back will keep you from doing that - not to mention they'll provide you very little on offense in the first place. The money just isn't there. Go cheap with strong defensive options in their spots (Hedges/Hamilton/Joyce/Ortega are just as strong if not stronger than Flow/Inciarte/Markakis) because the offensive upgrade from Mac to Grandal easily makes up for the production you might lose. The rotation doesn't take a step back going from Keuchel to Bumgarner, and the kids can replace Teheran cheaply. There's not much doubt that Smith would significantly upgrade the pen, and if you could somehow get a healthy season from O'Day it could be a real strength.
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So your plan is to commit 3 million to Hamilton for 5-6 weeks..... This is why people give you so much grief.

You do realize we were barely over .500 until the end of May don't you? Having a CFer who was playing poorly was a big reason for that. Relying on Hamilton or an unproven rookie with questions regarding his bat is not a smart way to build a WS contender. Not to mention, the net difference between Ender and Hedges/Hamilton is barely $1 million. Why in the hell wouldn't we just keep the better player in Ender and if Pache shows he is ready and Ender is struggling, we can just make the change then?
 
Carp said:
Sorry, but your payroll numbers are highly inaccurate. The Braves currently have 63,559,375 committed to 2020, and that's assuming all options are not picked up. We'll call it 64 million to round things up. Even if you don't tender Duvall and Greene, that's only about another 10ish million saved. So that's 54 million committed. Dumping Ender for Hedges (terrible value btw) gets you to 50 million. But then you must figure roughly 15 million for the arbitration cases of Folty, Swanson, Culberson, Jackson, and Dayton which I don't see that you have cut any of them. That's 65 million. Then figure another 5-10 million for pre-arb players, so we'll split it and say 7 million. That's 72 million committed to 2020. With a 130 million dollar opening day payroll, that's only 58 million available to spend this off-season, which is nowhere close to 78 million.

Also, I rather doubt JD accepts such an offer after the season he just had. He may be willing to accept the length of that contract, but he will certainly be looking for a higher AAV than he made in 2019. My guess is JD is looking for closer to 30 million in AAV for 2-3 seasons. Grandal deal is probably pretty close.


Lastly, Billy Hamilton is not a starter on any playoff team. We honestly would be better off sticking Waters/Pache in CF to start the year than go with Hamilton.
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The Opening Day Payroll figure I came up with includes the MLBTR projected arbitration figures posted earlier this week as well as $600,000 for all renewable players (Soroka/Fried/Newk/Wilson/Riley/etc.).

As for not spending on Hamilton or Duvall, I'd be all for starting the season with Pache and/or Waters - the problem is everyone else would scream about starting their clocks at the beginning of the season.

Like it or not, you've got 2 more seasons to take a shot with Freeman unless you extend him into his decline years - it's pretty much "*hit or get off the pot" time if the intention is to win a Championship while you have him. If the decision is to continue kicking the can down the road, that's fine, but if that's the case there's little reason spending big money trying to surround him with guys like Donaldson/Grandal/etc. - just keep spreading the money out and hope you get lucky.
 
Carp said:
So your plan is to commit 3 million to Hamilton for 5-6 weeks..... This is why people give you so much grief.

You do realize we were barely over .500 until the end of May don't you? Having a CFer who was playing poorly was a big reason for that. Relying on Hamilton or an unproven rookie with questions regarding his bat is not a smart way to build a WS contender. Not to mention, the net difference between Ender and Hedges/Hamilton is barely $1 million. Why in the hell wouldn't we just keep the better player in Ender and if Pache shows he is ready and Ender is struggling, we can just make the change then?
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If it isn't plainly evident I couldn't care less about you and select others "giving me grief", it's you who needs to work on reading comprehension, sorry.
 
clvclv said:
The Opening Day Payroll figure I came up with includes the MLBTR projected arbitration figures posted earlier this week as well as $600,000 for all renewable players (Soroka/Fried/Newk/Wilson/Riley/etc.).

As for not spending on Hamilton or Duvall, I'd be all for starting the season with Pache and/or Waters - the problem is everyone else would scream about starting their clocks at the beginning of the season.

Like it or not, you've got 2 more seasons to take a shot with Freeman unless you extend him into his decline years - it's pretty much "*hit or get off the pot" time if the intention is to win a Championship while you have him. If the decision is to continue kicking the can down the road, that's fine, but if that's the case there's little reason spending big money trying to surround him with guys like Donaldson/Grandal/etc. - just keep spreading the money out and hope you get lucky.
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That's fine. But you are still wrong. Even after all your suggested moves to trim payroll, we still will have roughly 78 million (give or take 3-4 million) that will be committed to 2020 payroll and opening day payroll is likely to be 130 million. 130-78 = 52. Any way you cut it, your payroll figures are wrong.
 
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clvclv said:
If it isn't plainly evident I couldn't care less about you and select others "giving me grief", it's you who needs to work on reading comprehension, sorry.
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Reading comprehension for what? You clearly outlined that Hamilton would be the starter until Pache is ready. And you are willing to give him 3 million for those 5-6 weeks.... That is an extremely horrible plan. If your plan is to go with Pache after 5-6 weeks, we'd be better off keeping Neck for roughly the same net amount of money and playing Acuna in CF for 5-6 weeks.
 
What would you guys think about a potential Eduardo Escobar trade? He's a guy that I REALLY wanted last offseason before he re-signed with the D'backs and he would come with a lot of benefits.

1. He's a switch hitter with relatively balanced splits.
2. He's versatile and can play 3rd, 2nd, LF, or RF... He could maybe play SS, but that'd be pushing it at this point in his career.
3. That versatility would allow us to go after either a 3rd baseman OR an outfielder in free agency, allowing him to fill the other hole, giving us a bunch of flexibility.
4. He's super cheap, only making 14.5 million over the next two years. Leaves room for impact signings elsewhere.
5. He's good. He's been worth about 9 WAR over the past 3 years.
6. He'll cost us something in trade, but the price should be fairly manageable and won't cost us any of the prospects that we REALLY want to keep.

I know nsacpi and I were very high on Escobar for the past year or so. He'll be 31 next year so he isn't risk free, but given the benefits he could bring to the table I think that taking on that risk would be worth it. I think he may currently be my #1 realistic dream target this offseason. Somebody tell me I'm crazy.
 
BeanieAntics said:
What would you guys think about a potential Eduardo Escobar trade? He's a guy that I REALLY wanted last offseason before he re-signed with the D'backs and he would come with a lot of benefits.

1. He's a switch hitter with relatively balanced splits.
2. He's versatile and can play 3rd, 2nd, LF, or RF... He could maybe play SS, but that'd be pushing it at this point in his career.
3. That versatility would allow us to go after either a 3rd baseman OR an outfielder in free agency, allowing him to fill the other hole, giving us a bunch of flexibility.
4. He's super cheap, only making 14.5 million over the next two years. Leaves room for impact signings elsewhere.
5. He's good. He's been worth about 9 WAR over the past 3 years.
6. He'll cost us something in trade, but the price should be fairly manageable and won't cost us any of the prospects that we REALLY want to keep.

I know nsacpi and I were very high on Escobar for the past year or so. He'll be 31 next year so he isn't risk free, but given the benefits he could bring to the table I think that taking on that risk would be worth it. I think he may currently be my #1 realistic dream target this offseason. Somebody tell me I'm crazy.
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And for those that love to do those ridiculous blockbuster wet dream trades where we trade out entire farm, how about we just send the D'backs Pache, Waters, Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright for Escobar and Ketel Marte and be done with it. World Series champs. Woot Woot.
 
BeanieAntics said:
What would you guys think about a potential Eduardo Escobar trade? He's a guy that I REALLY wanted last offseason before he re-signed with the D'backs and he would come with a lot of benefits.

1. He's a switch hitter with relatively balanced splits.
2. He's versatile and can play 3rd, 2nd, LF, or RF... He could maybe play SS, but that'd be pushing it at this point in his career.
3. That versatility would allow us to go after either a 3rd baseman OR an outfielder in free agency, allowing him to fill the other hole, giving us a bunch of flexibility.
4. He's super cheap, only making 14.5 million over the next two years. Leaves room for impact signings elsewhere.
5. He's good. He's been worth about 9 WAR over the past 3 years.
6. He'll cost us something in trade, but the price should be fairly manageable and won't cost us any of the prospects that we REALLY want to keep.

I know nsacpi and I were very high on Escobar for the past year or so. He'll be 31 next year so he isn't risk free, but given the benefits he could bring to the table I think that taking on that risk would be worth it. I think he may currently be my #1 realistic dream target this offseason. Somebody tell me I'm crazy.
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Along with Donaldson and Moose, Escobar is a very good fit for us at third. If we traded for him we would have the funds left to after Grandal. Whereas signing Donaldson or Moose would make it tougher to sign Grandal. I would offer Wright or Muller for Escobar. It would probably take a little more.
 
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Carp said:
That's fine. But you are still wrong. Even after all your suggested moves to trim payroll, we still will have roughly 78 million (give or take 3-4 million) that will be committed to 2020 payroll and opening day payroll is likely to be 130 million. 130-78 = 52. Any way you cut it, your payroll figures are wrong.
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List your figures please...

Current Commitments:
Freeman - $22,050,000
Melancon - $14,000,000
Folty - $7,500,000 (likely exercised)
Swanson - $3,300,000 (likely exercised)
Jackson - $1,900,000 (likely exercised)
Culberson - $1,800,000 (likely exercised)
Camargo - $1,600,000 (likely exercised)
Acuna - $1,000,000
Ozzie - $1,000,000
Dayton - $800,000 (likely exercised)
Soroka - $600,000
Fried - $600,000
Newcomb - $600,000

Buyouts:
Markakis - $2,000,000
Flowers - $2,000,000
Hamilton - $1,000,000
Teheran - $1,000,000

Assuming Ender's traded, that's $62,750,000 including buyouts. Toss in another $600,000 if you assume one of Wilson/Wright/Weigel/Anderson is in the rotation to begin the season, $600,000 if Riley's on the roster, and another $1,200,000 if you assume two of Minter/Sobotka/Touki/Webb/whomever are in the pen, and you get to $65,150,000 with 17 spots accounted for. There's obviously a question as to whether we owe O'Day $1 million and whether the $1,120,000 we found out was originally due to be paid to Sutter need to be added to those figures (don't recall anyone ever finding verified information as to whether those commitments are on our current books or not). Apparently you're considering some mixture of Julio/Markakis/Flowers/Duvall/Greene as "locks" to be brought back in your calculations. They may well be - just not in the scenario I presented. Maybe you're using the unexplained figure Sportrac has for Melancon? No other source (Cot's/AJC) has it as anything other than $14 million.
 
clvclv said:
List your figures please...

Current Commitments:
Freeman - $22,050,000
Melancon - $14,000,000
Folty - $7,500,000 (likely exercised)
Swanson - $3,300,000 (likely exercised)
Jackson - $1,900,000 (likely exercised)
Culberson - $1,800,000 (likely exercised)
Camargo - $1,600,000 (likely exercised)
Acuna - $1,000,000
Ozzie - $1,000,000
Dayton - $800,000 (likely exercised)
Soroka - $600,000
Fried - $600,000
Newcomb - $600,000

Buyouts:
Markakis - $2,000,000
Flowers - $2,000,000
Hamilton - $1,000,000
Teheran - $1,000,000

Assuming Ender's traded, that's $62,750,000 including buyouts. Toss in another $600,000 if you assume one of Wilson/Wright/Weigel/Anderson is in the rotation to begin the season, $600,000 if Riley's on the roster, and another $1,200,000 if you assume two of Minter/Sobotka/Touki/Webb/whomever are in the pen, and you get to $65,150,000 with 17 spots accounted for. There's obviously a question as to whether we owe O'Day $1 million and whether the $1,120,000 we found out was originally due to be paid to Sutter need to be added to those figures (don't recall anyone ever finding verified information as to whether those commitments are on our current books or not). Apparently you're considering some mixture of Julio/Markakis/Flowers/Duvall/Greene as "locks" to be brought back in your calculations. They may well be - just not in the scenario I presented. Maybe you're using the unexplained figure Sportrac has for Melancon? No other source (Cot's/AJC) has it as anything other than $14 million.
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Ender has little to no trade value atm. Keep him and Hamilton sign a big bat for LF/RF, Resign Donaldson and Cervelli, go after tons of pitching and play ball
 
nsacpi said:
Along with Donaldson and Mooch, Escobar is a very good fit for us at third. If we traded for him we would have the funds left to after Grandal. Whereas signing Donaldson or Mooch would make it tougher to sign Grandal. I would offer Wright or Muller for Escobar. It would probably take a little more.
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I like Escobar even more due to his price, the switch hitting, and the versatility. Plus there isn't potential long term risk as he's only signed for two more years.
 
clvclv said:
List your figures please...

Current Commitments:
Freeman - $22,050,000
Melancon - $14,000,000
Folty - $7,500,000 (likely exercised)
Swanson - $3,300,000 (likely exercised)
Jackson - $1,900,000 (likely exercised)
Culberson - $1,800,000 (likely exercised)
Camargo - $1,600,000 (likely exercised)
Acuna - $1,000,000
Ozzie - $1,000,000
Dayton - $800,000 (likely exercised)
Soroka - $600,000
Fried - $600,000
Newcomb - $600,000

Buyouts:
Markakis - $2,000,000
Flowers - $2,000,000
Hamilton - $1,000,000
Teheran - $1,000,000

Assuming Ender's traded, that's $62,750,000 including buyouts. Toss in another $600,000 if you assume one of Wilson/Wright/Weigel/Anderson is in the rotation to begin the season, $600,000 if Riley's on the roster, and another $1,200,000 if you assume two of Minter/Sobotka/Touki/Webb/whomever are in the pen, and you get to $65,150,000 with 17 spots accounted for. There's obviously a question as to whether we owe O'Day $1 million and whether the $1,120,000 we found out was originally due to be paid to Sutter need to be added to those figures (don't recall anyone ever finding verified information as to whether those commitments are on our current books or not). Apparently you're considering some mixture of Julio/Markakis/Flowers/Duvall/Greene as "locks" to be brought back in your calculations. They may well be - just not in the scenario I presented. Maybe you're using the unexplained figure Sportrac has for Melancon? No other source (Cot's/AJC) has it as anything other than $14 million.
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Looks like you correct on that. My apologies. Sporttrac appears to be wrong. I'll have to check in the morning when i get to a computer.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I like Escobar even more due to his price, the switch hitting, and the versatility. Plus there isn't potential long term risk as he's only signed for two more years.
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Is Escobar even available, i'd love him for the money he's making...
 
Heyward said:
Is Escobar even available, i'd love him for the money he's making...
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I'm just speculating at this point. But the D'backs are in a position to begin a rebuild (or at least a restructuring) after trading Greinke and Escobar isn't the kind of player you want to keep around for a process like that. Of course you'd think the same thing about guys like Mitch Haniger or Whit Merrifield, but hey, dumb organizations are gonna dumb.
 
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