Not that it changes anything but Ryu is not a back end starter.
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Not that it changes anything but Ryu is not a back end starter.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
that's how I see it playing out...we might even see some musical chairs when it comes to the fifth starter
I have the Braves as spending $44.4M on the opening day BP in 2020. That's...alarming.
This is a little like when the Rockies splurged on Davis, Shaw and McGee when they gave those 3 guys a combined $35M per year for 2018-2020. The Rockies got a decent 3.4 fWAR from the BP in 2018, and a horrid 0.2 fWAR in 2019...because BPs are volatile. They probably won't be able to build a competitive roster in 2020 because of the dead weight salaries in the BP.
All that cash better buy a 5+ fWAR unit over the next 2-3 years, or the Braves are in serious trouble.
This is a little like when the Rockies splurged on Davis, Shaw and McGee when they gave those 3 guys a combined $35M per year for 2018-2020. The Rockies got a decent 3.4 fWAR from the BP in 2018, and a horrid 0.2 fWAR in 2019...because BPs are volatile. They probably won't be able to build a competitive roster in 2020 because of the dead weight salaries in the BP.
All that cash better buy a 5+ fWAR unit over the next 2-3 years, or the Braves are in serious trouble.
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ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
But Melancon and Greene they are free agents after next year and O’Day is a club option for the second year.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
The only thing I could tell you to make you feel better is, both Melancon and Greene are off the books after this year, and that's close to 20 million freed up.
Hudson2
Well-known member
MM will be gone after this season so that’ll free up 14 million.
Neither DK nor JT are likely to secure 3/4 year deals, so that's rather irrelevant. If prices were the same and draft pick weren't a consideration, sure MadBum has more potential than either one, so he wouldn't be a bad choicr. But he was wasn't significantly better than either DK or JT in the 2nd half of last season (as if that sample size had any relevance).
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
18 million!
This article sums it up pretty well...the Braves have an expensive good old BP:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/the-braves-suddenly-have-a-good-but-aging-bullpen.html
"it must be a bit disappointing for the Braves that they’ve ended up needing to commit this kind of cash to get where they feel comfortable in the relief unit. The waves of young arms have thus far largely disappointed outside of a few notable exceptions. The idea had been that the club’s best starting pitching prospects would not only form up an imposing rotation but spill over into the bullpen, linking up with the team’s short-inning pitching prospects to create an overwhelming overall staff."
All those resources piled into arms the last 5 years, and they still have to spend $44M to build a good BP.
Guess they should have acquired even more arms?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/the-braves-suddenly-have-a-good-but-aging-bullpen.html
"it must be a bit disappointing for the Braves that they’ve ended up needing to commit this kind of cash to get where they feel comfortable in the relief unit. The waves of young arms have thus far largely disappointed outside of a few notable exceptions. The idea had been that the club’s best starting pitching prospects would not only form up an imposing rotation but spill over into the bullpen, linking up with the team’s short-inning pitching prospects to create an overwhelming overall staff."
All those resources piled into arms the last 5 years, and they still have to spend $44M to build a good BP.
Guess they should have acquired even more arms?
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Maybe an issue of less than competent pitching coaches? Im not sure but hasn't there been considerable turnover in the minor league staffs under LM ownership?
To be fair, the only ones recently they haven't developed into useful pieces have been Touki, Wright, and Wilson. Touki and Wilson are still super young, and they are still committed to them as staters, so not too concerned about their 2019 struggles in the pen. Wright has largely disappointed, but still has time to develop.
Newk has had mild success as both a starter and reliever. Fried, Folty, and Soroka are rotation main stays.
Main failures were Sims, Wisler, and Blair. Sims and Wisler were used in a trade for Duvall, so they weren't completely useless. Blair was a legit bust, but he was the 3rd piece of the Miller trade, so it isn't like we had much invested into him.
Newk has had mild success as both a starter and reliever. Fried, Folty, and Soroka are rotation main stays.
Main failures were Sims, Wisler, and Blair. Sims and Wisler were used in a trade for Duvall, so they weren't completely useless. Blair was a legit bust, but he was the 3rd piece of the Miller trade, so it isn't like we had much invested into him.
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zbhargrove
Well-known member
MadBum strikes out tons more batters then Keuchel?
MadBum 8.8 K/9
Keuchel 7.3 K/9
I didn’t realize striking out a little over one batter more per 9 innings equates to a ton more
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Is it my imagination but seems Ive read that Wright is not the most coachable young man.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I don’t think I’ve seen that anywhere
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He went to Vandy. That's inculpatory evidence I believe.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Maybe AA has begun using a different valuation system that puts more emphasis on bullpen pitching than the WAR calculations do.
Intuitively it seems possible to me that an elite bullpen would have prevented quite a few of the Braves losses last year, especially in the first half. I admit that may be hooey because I haven't gone back over game logs.
Multiple quality relief options seem like they could also have some type of cooperative bonus also, meaning 4 pitchers worth 1 WAR each are worth greater than 1 more WAR than only 3 of those pitchers, due to factors like fatigue, off days, and the opportunity to end a starter's poor performance early.
If that makes sense.
Intuitively it seems possible to me that an elite bullpen would have prevented quite a few of the Braves losses last year, especially in the first half. I admit that may be hooey because I haven't gone back over game logs.
Multiple quality relief options seem like they could also have some type of cooperative bonus also, meaning 4 pitchers worth 1 WAR each are worth greater than 1 more WAR than only 3 of those pitchers, due to factors like fatigue, off days, and the opportunity to end a starter's poor performance early.
If that makes sense.
Depthcharts on Fangraphs has the Braves pen at 4.3 WAR in 2020. Smith and Martin are projected to be worth 1.8 of that.
Edit: And to further add to this. Obviously trades and the signing of the premo FA's will shuffle the order but the Braves, as is, are expected to produce 38.6 WAR which is 7th in baseball and 2nd in the NL to the Dodgers.
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There were a lot more pitching prospects the last 5 years than these...Allard, Gohara, Gant, Jenkins, ManBan, etc, etc...
I'm sure the next reply will be something along the lines of, "wellllll...those other guys weren't REALLY good prospects".
Then why acquire them rather than position prospects? Why did folks on this board list them out time and time again while drooling over how awesome they were? Am I the only one who remembers the countless posts where folks filled out the entire pitching staff of the future with internal guys, and then marveled at how great that staff would be? After all that drooling, folks are seriously going to suggest, "they weren't REALLY that good"?
If the Braves still had to spend $44M on the 2020 BP, what was the point in accumulating all those arms? Who failed? Why aren't they going to fail again?
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