Official Offseason Thread

Enscheff said:
Shields change has 7.8” of arm side run. His curve has 5.3” of glove side run. His rarely thrown a slider has 4.9” of glove side run. Whoever called it a “sinking change” had no idea what they were talking about. All changes “sink” compared to the fastball. His change has very typical movement.

Changes break arm side, even circle changes. No change I’ve analyzed is thrown with a “twisting of the wrist” to give it glove side spin. The whole point of a circle change, and all changes, is to let it come off the weaker fingers or a weaker grip to decrease the velocity.

I find it hard to believe any pitch grading system, even the eye test, is consistently confusing a change with a breaking ball.
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Doesn't Kyle Hendricks have something that people call a "cut" change that has glove side run? Its some weird combination of a slider, cutter, and changeup from what I've read and its very difficult to categorize.
 
Enscheff said:
Pitched baseballs move due to magus force created by velocity, spin rate, and orientation of the spin axis. Dr Nathan has written many papers detailing this.

A huge spin rate that’s spinning on the wrong axis will have less movement than a lesser spin rate on a more efficient axis...this is known as spin efficiency. It is possible Anderson has a pitch with 1700 RPM at nearly 100% spin efficiency to produce a useable pitch.

There is no such thing as “late break”, “sharp break”, or “loopy break”. There is only magus force consistently acting on a pitch from the moment it leaves the hand, and causing movement away from its initial trajectory. All tracking data shows all pitches moving smoothly and consistent with constant forces applied to them.
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I think loopy vs sharp in terms of a curveball is a thing. It's not break as much as it's the pitch itself. The loopy curve is the slower breaker that tumbles. It looks impressive but it doesn't fool batters.

A curveball with "sharp break" is one that is thrown harder but the higher spin and/or spin efficiency results in more movement and less tumble. This actually fools the hitter.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Doesn't Kyle Hendricks have something that people call a "cut" change that has glove side run? Its some weird combination of a slider, cutter, and changeup from what I've read and its very difficult to categorize.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-hendricks/12049/pitch-type-splits?position=P&pitch=all

Looks like typical fastballs and change with arm side run, a curve with glove side run, and a cutter he hasn’t thrown since 2015...likely because it sucks and doesn’t actually cut...just stays straight. Cutters are supposed to have glove side movement, essentially sliders with more velocity.
 
striker42 said:
I think loopy vs sharp in terms of a curveball is a thing. It's not break as much as it's the pitch itself. The loopy curve is the slower breaker that tumbles. It looks impressive but it doesn't fool batters.

A curveball with "sharp break" is one that is thrown harder but the higher spin and/or spin efficiency results in more movement and less tumble. This actually fools the hitter.
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Oh, then in that case you are correct. Breaking balls have different shapes and velocities, and if “loopy” means slow and not much break you are probably correct.

All these subjective descriptions of pitches are rather pointless, and quite often misused by folks who don’t really know what they are talking about. We have numbers that describe these pitches precisely, which is why I prefer to use them instead.
 
Enscheff said:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-hendricks/12049/pitch-type-splits?position=P&pitch=all

Looks like typical fastballs and change with arm side run, a curve with glove side run, and a cutter he hasn’t thrown since 2015...likely because it sucks and doesn’t actually cut...just stays straight. Cutters are supposed to have glove side movement, essentially sliders with more velocity.
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I think they may have difficulty categorizing it or something. Because I definitely have seen Hendricks throw a pitch in the past couple seasons that couldn't be described as a fastball, change, cutter, or sinker. And Hendricks has talked about having two different grips on his changeup to get different types of movement.

Eno wrote about it a few years ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-hendricks-has-two-changeups/
 
BeanieAntics said:
I think they may have difficulty categorizing it or something. Because I definitely have seen Hendricks throw a pitch in the past couple seasons that couldn't be described as a fastball, change, cutter, or sinker. And Hendricks has talked about having two different grips on his changeup to get different types of movement.

Eno wrote about it a few years ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-hendricks-has-two-changeups/
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Maybe. Pitchers often think they know what they’re taking about, but don’t. Not many are as intelligent as Soroka, Greinke or Bauer.

It could be like Gohara’s slider, where he threw it 2 different speeds, and the average result was a slider that didn’t look good based on the numbers.

There is pitch movement data available for every one of his outings. Perhaps looking at it for individual games will reveal clusters that can be classified as different pitches. Or perhaps they all blur together in terms of movement, at which point they aren’t really different pitches despite the grip he uses.
 
Just got caught up, if we're at 4 years on JD, thats surprising, i hope one way or another, this is settled soon. Whether we get JD or AA has to move onto other options.
 
Enscheff said:
Oh, then in that case you are correct. Breaking balls have different shapes and velocities, and if “loopy” means slow and not much break you are probably correct.

All these subjective descriptions of pitches are rather pointless, and quite often misused by folks who don’t really know what they are talking about. We have numbers that describe these pitches precisely, which is why I prefer to use them instead.
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Shape rather than break is what I was getting at. A pitch at a lower velocity can have gravity give it a shape that looks impressive to the naked eye but that has so little actual break that hitters aren't fooled. I think that's what we might be seeing with Anderson's curve. It's shape looks impressive but the low RPMs mean it doesn't actually break all that much.

Bottom line, judging by eye isn't the best way to judge a curveball like this. We'll get more info on it once he reaches the majors and then the hitters will tell us pretty quickly how good of a pitch it actually is.
 
Wasnt there also talk during the futures game that Anderson's release point is further than most pitchers? What can the impact be to a hitter based on that? Apparent velocity seems to be an accepted subject how about apparent break?
 
DOB with some bold predictions, nothing earth shattering really.

- Acuna flirts with 40-40
- FF is in MVP race
- Will Smith is closer
- Ender is traded to make room for Pache
- Braves re-sign JD to a 3 yr deal with the 4th year buyout being heavy money
- Braves trade prospects at deadline for a SP
- Nats win the division
- Braves finally win a playoff series (LOL)
- Soroka emerges as the ace

Nothing noteworthy, slow newsday with Realmuto, i mean JD still on the market.
 
Heyward said:
DOB with some bold predictions, nothing earth shattering really.

- Acuna flirts with 40-40
- FF is in MVP race
- Will Smith is closer
- Ender is traded to make room for Pache
- Braves re-sign JD to a 3 yr deal with the 4th year buyout being heavy money
- Braves trade prospects at deadline for a SP
- Nats win the division
- Braves finally win a playoff series (LOL)
- Soroka emerges as the ace

Nothing noteworthy, slow newsday with Realmuto, i mean JD still on the market.
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That last one is a cheapie. Soroka has pretty much already emerged as the ace. The JD one is interesting, because DOB has inside info. Can't help but think he may be hearing something. I've also been questioning whether or not these rumors of 4 year deals are actually true. Could be stuff JD's agent is putting out there or even other GM's to get someone to pay more.
 
I just don’t see anybody going to 5 years with JD. If he has multiple 4 year offers out there then he should of made his decision by now.
 
Heyward said:
DOB with some bold predictions, nothing earth shattering really.

- Acuna flirts with 40-40
- FF is in MVP race
- Will Smith is closer
- Ender is traded to make room for Pache
- Braves re-sign JD to a 3 yr deal with the 4th year buyout being heavy money
- Braves trade prospects at deadline for a SP
- Nats win the division
- Braves finally win a playoff series (LOL)
- Soroka emerges as the ace

Nothing noteworthy, slow newsday with Realmuto, i mean JD still on the market.
Click to expand...

JD signs a 3 year deal with a 4th year buyout? With the way things are going I think he gets his 4th year guaranteed.

Lol Nats win the division? We’ve won it two years in a row, have improved each year, and the Nats have regressed having lost Rendon. Why is he picking them to win the division?
 
tululush said:
JD signs a 3 year deal with a 4th year buyout? With the way things are going I think he gets his 4th year guaranteed.

Lol Nats win the division? We’ve won it two years in a row, have improved each year, and the Nats have regressed having lost Rendon. Why is he picking them to win the division?
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Pitching
 
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