Official Offseason Thread

[BeanieAntics]

Thanks for providing this amazing info. Back when I was in college 20+ years ago we didn’t have anything resembling this tech. Our coach was still trying to get us to swing down on the ball, and trying to enforce it with that silly contraption with the padded bars guiding the swing path. It was horrible.

I already posited that Anderson May be able to add a cutter, or somehow figure out how to get nearly 100% spin efficiency, but my question for you is this:

When a kid comes in with a spin rate of 2000 or less, how likely is it he can improve upon it? Have you guys identified drills to “strengthen” whatever is responsible for spin rate? Is it something that improves as kids mature physically, or is it something they can focus on and improve...such as a skill like command or swing path?

I guess the short version: what are the chances a mostly mature pitcher like Anderson can add ~500 RPM?

I wonder how much of it is a player's body, or physical traits that you can't really teach or train. For example, when I was in high school I was a first baseman, but I would pitch occasionally. I'm a really big guy who is relatively tall, but I was born with exceptionally tiny hands for my size. I had a strong enough arm for high school, but it was always really difficult for me to learn secondary pitches because my hands were so small and that made it difficult to manipulate the ball the way I wanted to.

I just wonder how much pitch quality can be affected by inherent traits that you really can't change like hand size or arm length.

 

[Eyeman]

With the low spin rate numbers, I just assumed it was an error. But now that we've heard from the pitching coach, etc, maybe Anderson was just throwing "get me over curves" when these stats were recorded. Hopefully he already has a 500 RPM better spinner in there and just wasn't using it.

It would also be interesting to see if some of our pitchers are trying to gain control by reducing their spin rates (Touki, Newcomb, Wright). For sure Touki has lost velocity for some reason.

Way back Enscheff brought up how rare it is for someone with just Anderson's two good pitches to be a successful. I wonder what Glavine's percentage was on his third pitch. But then again Glavine would mess up most stats on what it takes to be a HOF pitcher. I assume Randy Johnson or someone like that would classify as the most successful two pitch starter in the modern era, but it's crazy to me to think how Glavine did it with his two pitches (and I'm not predicting Anderson will be the next Glavine btw).

 

[clvclv]

I'd like to add some things as it pertains to Anderson’s curveball. Let me start by saying I am a college pitching coach and have been using this type of data on my guys as well.

Encheff is absolutely correct in what he’s saying. If indeed his spin rate is ~1700 RPM then that is equivalent to a average high school CB or well below average college pitcher in terms of this pitch. When my guys first step on campus and we get them on Rapsodo (fiming software used for video analysis) I expect to see a round 2000 RPM at the very least. The other thing to note is a pitchers true spin vs. total spin which equals his spin efficiency and that’s data we don’t currently have on Ian. For instance, our #2 starter (has best CB on staff) has a 2626 RPM total spin and 2265 true spin which equals ~86% spin efficiency, which is really good.

What I am saying is that if in fact that number of 1700 is correct, he would need to be in the 95% of spin efficiency for this pitch to work. With all of this being said, there are two things I’d want everyone to consider. 1.) Anderson’s CH is a plus pitch and typically for young guys is the hardest pitch to master. The organization (every org has a different philosophy) could have said let’s get this pitch to plus status then turn the attention to your CB/SL after we get this pitch to where it becomes your primary secondary pitch. Guess what I’m trying to say is most pitching coaches can improve a breaking ball (see next point) but the CH is harder to develop, so Braves could have had Anderson put most effort on CH and will now turn attention to CB . 2.) There are some new studies that show guys that struggle with a breaking ball are starting to throw a cutter. By throwing a cutter and learning what different pressure points do to the baseball as it pertains to your release point it can vastly improve spin efficiency which in turn can/will improve your breaking ball.

I’m not a know-it-all by any means and wanted to chime in on this topic as I love all the data available to use now. Not trying to step on anyone’s toes but I hope this helped a little. In the end, Encheff is right and if this is truly what Anderson has for a BB then to me it’s nothing more than a “show me pitch) but I defiantly wouldn’t give up on him because if he can refine that pitch (usually the easiest to get big jump of improvement) he has top of the rotation potential.

While we're far removed from the JS/Cox/Leo era, there were times in the past when the organization followed this pattern religiously with developing Pitchers - arguably waiting so long to let the kid go back to the pitch they took away that he lost some of the feel for it. I don't think anyone has claimed that the spin rate is a legitimate concern - yet - other than that one strange passing mention. Given how hard it is to keep a secret these days I just can't believe other teams would be asking for him as part of a big package. It almost feels like when there's nothing happening during the holidays but Rosenthal/Morosi/DOB/Bowman still have to file a column - there wasn't anything else to criticize, so he mentioned a spin rate report he "heard about" and hadn't verified.

That doesn't mean they may not need to scrap his current breaking ball and go to something else, but his FB/CH has been so devastating that the hitters at the levels he's completed so far couldn't handle him and that the organization has simply left him alone to keep improving them as you suggest. As someone mentioned before, it's REALLY hard to believe that FanGraphs rates his future curve as a 55 if that spin rate is correct.

 

[Metaphysicist]

Pitched baseballs move due to magus force created by velocity, spin rate, and orientation of the spin axis. Dr Nathan has written many papers detailing this.

A huge spin rate that’s spinning on the wrong axis will have less movement than a lesser spin rate on a more efficient axis...this is known as spin efficiency. It is possible Anderson has a pitch with 1700 RPM at nearly 100% spin efficiency to produce a useable pitch.

There is no such thing as “late break”, “sharp break”, or “loopy break”. There is only magus force consistently acting on a pitch from the moment it leaves the hand, and causing movement away from its initial trajectory. All tracking data shows all pitches moving smoothly and consistent with constant forces applied to them.

I think you are overselling this. "Sharp" or "late" break or whatever is absolutely a real thing, but it is about how a pitch and its spin appears to the naked eye, and thus how it affects a hitter's perception and ability to track it. It's just a different phenomenon than a change in linear direction due to magus force. It's not something something that is gonna show up in p/fx, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

[Enscheff]

I think you are overselling this. "Sharp" or "late" break or whatever is absolutely a real thing, but it is about how a pitch and its spin appears to the naked eye, and thus how it affects a hitter's perception and ability to track it. It's just a different phenomenon than a change in linear direction due to magus force. It's not something something that is gonna show up in p/fx, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Thats defined as pitch tunneling, and is also fully explainable with objective terms.

“Late break” means the pitch breaks later in time...that’s literally the meaning of those words. And it is literally incorrect.

Again, we have ways to talk about these things accurately and precisely. I prefer to use that terminology.

 

[Enscheff]

I wonder how much of it is a player's body, or physical traits that you can't really teach or train. For example, when I was in high school I was a first baseman, but I would pitch occasionally. I'm a really big guy who is relatively tall, but I was born with exceptionally tiny hands for my size. I had a strong enough arm for high school, but it was always really difficult for me to learn secondary pitches because my hands were so small and that made it difficult to manipulate the ball the way I wanted to.

I just wonder how much pitch quality can be affected by inherent traits that you really can't change like hand size or arm length.

That’s precisely what I asked. Is spin rate a teachable skill, or one that can be strengthens? Or is it innate like finger length and height and reaction time and fast twitch musculature?

I’ve seen folks claim it’s innate, but I’m wondering if younger guys can still mature into more spin rate.

 

[Enscheff]

With the low spin rate numbers, I just assumed it was an error. But now that we've heard from the pitching coach, etc, maybe Anderson was just throwing "get me over curves" when these stats were recorded. Hopefully he already has a 500 RPM better spinner in there and just wasn't using it.

It would also be interesting to see if some of our pitchers are trying to gain control by reducing their spin rates (Touki, Newcomb, Wright). For sure Touki has lost velocity for some reason.

Way back Enscheff brought up how rare it is for someone with just Anderson's two good pitches to be a successful. I wonder what Glavine's percentage was on his third pitch. But then again Glavine would mess up most stats on what it takes to be a HOF pitcher. I assume Randy Johnson or someone like that would classify as the most successful two pitch starter in the modern era, but it's crazy to me to think how Glavine did it with his two pitches (and I'm not predicting Anderson will be the next Glavine btw).

If you google “pitcher aging curves” you can find data that shows pitchers as a whole lose velocity almost from the moment they become professionals. It is quite possible Touki is simply following that typical aging curve for pitchers.

 

[Metaphysicist]

Thats defined as pitch tunneling, and is also fully explainable with objective terms.

“Late break” means the pitch breaks later in time...that’s literally the meaning of those words. And it is literally incorrect.

Again, we have ways to talk about these things accurately and precisely. I prefer to use that terminology.

Not talking about pitch tunneling. I'm talking about human perception when trying to track a spinning object in motion. (link)

We suggest that the perception of a discontinuous shift in position results from differences between foveal and peripheral processing.

 

[Enscheff]

Not talking about pitch tunneling. I'm talking about human perception when trying to track a spinning object in motion. (link)

We suggest that the perception of a discontinuous shift in position results from differences between foveal and peripheral processing.

"the shift from foveal to peripheral vision (and vice versa) underlies the batter's perception of a break."

Says nothing about different types of break, or any way to classify breaking balls...which is what we are talking about.

Again...we know how to talk about curves precisely and accurately. We do not need to use terms like "late break". The only thing that article seems to suggest is that the actual movement on the pitch isn't why it's effective, only the perception of that movement...which we know to be false since curves with more movement produce measurably better results.

 

[Heyward]

Feinsand said Braves, Nats, Twins all have 4 year 100 mil+ offers on the table for JD.

 

[UNCBlue012]

Feinsand said Braves, Nats, Twins all have 4 year 100 mil+ offers on the table for JD.

I actually like Feinsand, so that's good to hear. Unless the Nats or Twins deals are exponentially better, I'd guess he comes back to ATL.

 

[Heyward]

I actually like Feinsand, so that's good to hear. Unless the Nats or Twins deals are exponentially better, I'd guess he comes back to ATL.

I wish JD would decide soon before all the other options are gone, so AA can go to a backup plan or not. I agree Feinsand is pretty legit though.

 

[clvclv]

Feinsand said Braves, Nats, Twins all have 4 year 100 mil+ offers on the table for JD.

Some of these guys have their info terribly wrong in that case - one of the things many of the reports had mentioned was that (paraphrasing) "all things being equal, Donaldson prefers to go back to Atlanta and he's supposedly going to circle back to the Braves to give them a chance to match any offer". Obviously no one knows that for sure outside of AA, Donaldson, and Donaldson's people, but if that IS the case, there wouldn't seem to be a reason for AA to put an offer on the table unless Donaldson has told him he's ready to make a decision and Alex isn't willing to quite match whatever the top offer he has in hand is.

 

[Skeeter31]

Some of these guys have their info terribly wrong in that case - one of the things many of the reports had mentioned was that (paraphrasing) "all things being equal, Donaldson prefers to go back to Atlanta and he's supposedly going to circle back to the Braves to give them a chance to match any offer". Obviously no one knows that for sure outside of AA, Donaldson, and Donaldson's people, but if that IS the case, there wouldn't seem to be a reason for AA to put an offer on the table unless Donaldson has told him he's ready to make a decision and Alex isn't willing to quite match whatever the top offer he has in hand is.

But, I’m sure AA isn’t going to just sit back and not even tender an offer to JD’s people, on the assumption that he’s going to circle back tot he Braves before making a decision. That would just be bad business. We still have to get an offer out there so we’re being considered.

 

[clvclv]

But, I’m sure AA isn’t going to just sit back and not even tender an offer to JD’s people, on the assumption that he’s going to circle back tot he Braves before making a decision. That would just be bad business. We still have to get an offer out there so we’re being considered.

I don't see the need to have an official "offer" out there - giving his camp a number simply gives them more leverage to try to get Washington, Minnesota, and anyone else involved to go higher. If he's personally expressed to AA that he prefers to be here and that he'll come back to him before making any decision, putting a number out there is simply driving your own bid higher. It would absolutely make sense for Donaldson's representation to check in to make sure Alex is still "in" once they have 4 year offers in hand because if he's not willing to go to that fourth year they can inform him that coming back isn't an option if that's the deciding factor.

If AA has said "We're still in at 4 years", that's likely all he needed to tell them - IF those saying he's going to give Alex the last chance are right. If those reports are wrong, it absolutely makes sense that he puts a number out there. That's the problem - we have no clue whether he agreed to circle back to AA.

 

[Carp]

I really, really would rather pass on JD at 4 years. I'd honestly rather take on all of Arenado's contract than to give JD 25 million for into his late 30's. At least you can be somewhat confident Arenado will be an elite player for the forseeable future. I'm not confident JD will even be starter worthy by the end of 2021, much less in 2023.

 

[Hudson2]

I wanna keep JD but not at 4 years and that’s what it’s looking like it’ll take. Washington I think will be more willing to overpay bc they don’t have as many resources to make a big trade. This has drug out long enough.

 

[Heyward]

I wanna keep JD but not at 4 years and that’s what it’s looking like it’ll take. Washington I think will be more willing to overpay bc they don’t have as many resources to make a big trade. This has drug out long enough.

I think Twins get him if it's 4 years, i dont wanna go 4 either. I actually prefer Arenado if it would remove his opt out clause, pending the money and prospects/players we'd have to give them.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Braves reported interest in JD, Ozuna and Castellanos. All 3 repped by Boras. Looks like Boras is playing the market and not putting but one player out there at a time. He seems to know that if Braves miss on JD they will then move on to NC.

 

[nsacpi]

I really, really would rather pass on JD at 4 years. I'd honestly rather take on all of Arenado's contract than to give JD 25 million for into his late 30's. At least you can be somewhat confident Arenado will be an elite player for the forseeable future. I'm not confident JD will even be starter worthy by the end of 2021, much less in 2023.

Pass for me too. There are fallback options such as Frazier and Longoria that have not been much discussed here. All depends on price of course. But I'm hoping AA continues to emphasize value and flexibility. Frazier on a one year deal might be a good fallback option.