Their people have the most western-like mindset. The government is still hardline that is looking to cause damage in the region.
Cuba is not an agitator. The population is small. In my opinion its not a relevant example.
Cuba was very much a threat for many years. They aren't now because the Castros got older and only cared about staying in power not getting into a war with us. But look at it, in terms of we still have no diplomatic relations with them, etc. The embargo is still there. We allow their refugees in if they make it, etc. It was an absolutely stupid move by Trump to pull out when US companies were ready to invest billions there. In 10 years or less when Raul dies, we could have been a big influence on the next leader because Raul would be the last Castro to rule. There'd be a power vacuum, and if the economy was doing well, there would be a movement to get moderate leaders to work with the US in power.
As for Iran, Exactly the point. Their people want it. But not enough yet because we aren't supporting them enough in a way they'd see a difference in having us be their saving grace. Saddam was unpopular in Iraq yet we were very unpopular after the honeymoon phase ended and we're still there 17 years later.
If we didn't pull a dick move and back out of the nuclear agreement with them, they'd see more prosperity from trading with countries again that they couldn't with before, not just us. In a few years once their economy is really booming, the movement to elect more moderate government there will be even stronger to continue a working relationship with the west. People don't remember, but Rouhani was elected BECAUSE the people there wanted someone who would extend an olive branch to the West and work on something. And he and his foreign Minister did that and look what they got out of it. The deal was so lopsided in our favor and Trump still backed out because he rather listen to Saudi Arabia and Israel. Those two want to be the only influential powerhouses in the Middle East, so a prosperous Iran is a danger to them regardless if it's a hardline government or a moderate one.
Rouhani isn't stupid, and neither is most of his cabinet. Most of his cabinet have attended college in western countries in the US AND Western Europe. They've seen the benefits of strong economies and western culture. It would be much easier to oust the Ayatollah if the US looked like a friend waiting to help, rather then what Trump is doing which is instigate and instigate.
The right seems to be getting a boner for the killing of this official, but if it leads to another invasion, it's going to be just as bad as Iraq. The best hope was to come in and help if they wanted to overthrew and do it right. We invaded Iraq willingly, but if the Iranian citizens were ready to go full Hong Kong protesting, we'd have an excuse to help them oust the ayotollah. The problem is, invading them now and killing millions of innocents in the process is going to make the ones who are very pro-west hate us.
It's an absolute pipe dream that we can go to war with Iran and their people will welcome us with open arms.