cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Wow thats an amazing deal.
Braves sign OF Marcell Ozuna to 1 yr, 18 Million.
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
While the author doesn’t use actual data to draw this conclusion, this is very interesting. His few video examples makes sense, but they don’t prove side spin is a chronic issue...only that is was an issue on those few swings.
This is definitely a hole in statcast data, and I’m not sure if the data exists to correct for it.
I am reminded of this article from FG where Zimmerman also explains that backspin on batter balls is missing from statcast expected stats.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/spin-rate-batted-balls-missing-component/
It is possible Ozuna just sucks at generating backspin, and that’s why his wOBA always appears “unlucky”.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Yeah, it's more of a thought provoker than anything definitive. Ozuna does seem to have kind of a choppy swing, so I can imagine it producing some weird spin.
i saw $14-16M range. which i'm surprised he didn't take. but if he feels he can get more without a pick attached, could end up being smart.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
What is Ozuna's ceiling in regards to potential contracts? I can't think its any more than ~22-24 million per year, and I think he would have to have an incredible year to get that much. So the absolute best contract I could see him getting after a great year would be somewhere in the 4 year 90 million dollar range, maaaaayyyybbbeee with a fifth year option. If he turned down a 4 year deal at 16 million per year (64 million total), I think that would have been a big mistake. If he gets hurt bad or regresses heavily, he could be risking 46 million dollars (64 minus his current contract) in order to gain around 26 million in a best case scenario. Maybe I'm wrong and he's confident that he can pull a Yelich and have an MVP caliber season or something. If he did that and put up a .950+ OPS with improved defense, maybe he'll get a giant 6+ year deal from an American League team. But I don't think that outcome is particularly likely.
Hudson2
Well-known member
Ozuna will never sniff 20 million per. 18 is his ceiling imo.
FG predicted $17.5M for 4 years in the beginning of the offseason.
"Strangely, I think this contract is a good idea for Ozuna as well. That’s not to say I’d take it over Kiley McDaniel’s four year, $70 million estimate. But no one was offering Ozuna that, as evidenced by the fact that he would have signed that contract instead of this one if it were out there. And if the options were this pillow contract or some medium-term, lower-AAV deal (three years and $45 million, say, or four years and $55 million), I’d take this one."
he can probably get a 4/$55M next year if he produces like he did last year. i think that's the logic. his contract offers aren't likely to get worse than they were this year, probably remain the same, and could get better.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I agree with Super. What is his expected floor. I don’t think even if he gets hurt it will be below 10 - 15 million depending on severity. Even if he has a horrible year hitting some team will give him another prove it to me one year deal. I like him gambling on himself to have a good year or even a year similar to last to try and get that 4 year deal up from 15- 16 to more like 18-20. So instead of a 4/64, he got a 5/90 (this year 18 million plus 4@18). If he fails or gets hurt and can only get another 1 year deal at around 12. He still got 2@30 and can hope to rebound. Or just go year to year getting less money.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
If the reports of a 3-4 year deal at 14-16 million dollars are true, why in the world wouldn't he accept that and instead take this deal with the hope of getting the same exact thing next year, which 4/55 would more or less be. Its not especially likely that Ozuna has a catastrophic injury or is terrible next year, but things like that do happen occasionally. I don't see the benefit being worth the risk, however small that risk may be. Because the benefit is basically getting the same contract that you turned down this year (reportedly).
Southcack77
Well-known member
No question that I would have taken 4/64, but for me 64 million dollars is all the money I would ever want or need.
If you are a MLB athlete, or his agent, the banked millions might not be all that impressive.
......
If he puts up a 5 win season as he has done once and as his expected stats suggested he could have done last season, he's going to make a lot more than 64m.
If he puts up his usual 3 win season, he's probably not losing any money considering how weak next season's class will be.
Yeah, if he just holds par, he should easily get 3/4 year offers in the 50 million dollar range next off-season. If he has a big season where he hits like 30 homers with an .875+ OPS, quality defense and ~4 WAR, he could be looking at 4/5 year deals in the 75-90 million range.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Right, but this is assuming that the absolute worse case scenario is for him to replicate his 2019 season. That's just not the case. I'm pretty high on Ozuna and I think he is likely to have a really, really good season for us. But the possibility exists that he battles weird injuries all year, he gets hurt in a way that affects his future performance, or just flat out regresses to a below average player. The risk of that happening to him aren't any higher than it happening to any other player, but the risk that it does exists. I don't think the notion of him getting a similar contract in 2021 that he was reportedly offered this year is worth assuming that risk, or the notion that he could possibly increase that contract offer by 1-2 million per year.
True, but if the risk is fairly low and the assumption is he will likely receive similar contracts next off-season, then this year could essentially be viewed as an extra year at a premium rate that he wouldn't otherwise have gotten (unlikely he gets a 1 year 18 million deal 3 years from now).
Plus there is solid chance he gets better offers next year in a weaker class with no pick attached.
This this this. He waits a year, becomes part of a really thin FA class, and loses the QO pick that saps value from him. There is an aspect of betting on himself, but it's a pretty damned safe bet. He could be slightly worse in 2020 than 2019 and still get about the same offers, assumably a year shorter in general.
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
I'm still thinking about the overall off-season. With Ozuna now in the fold, AA has upgraded and deepened the outfield, upgraded the 4th starter, the #2 catcher, signed the best available closer and deepened the pen, and has strengthened the bench. That's a ton no matter what is done or not done with 3rd. As it stands, this looks to be one of the deepest Braves teams I can recall.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
The Padres are discussing a Betts deal with the Red Sox, a Padres reported has said.