Official Offseason Thread

[Southcack77]

I don't understand how you could say Senzel's value is the same when he's has a disappointing major league performance and his team shows little interest in giving him a full time position. Not to mention the injuries. All for a guy who wasn't viewed as having a huge upside anyway.

 

[Super]

I don't understand how you could say Senzel's value is the same when he's has a disappointing major league performance and his team shows little interest in giving him a full time position. Not to mention the injuries. All for a guy who wasn't viewed as having a huge upside anyway.

"all the injuries"? he was injured in 2018 but otherwise has played a lot of games.
i don't see his performance as disappointing. not every rookie lights the league on fire. he had solid peripherals and graded out positively defensively.
once again, you're overstating his team's feelings on him. he'll get plenty of playing time.

 

[zbhargrove]

lordy.
Senzel was a 60FV and Riley was a 55FV. i feel this gap has grown, as i'd keep Senzel the same and move Riley down a bit based on his issues.
Senzel has a better minor league track record.
Riley came up and K'd 36.4% of the time with a 5.4% BB rate. his issue were/are absolutely glaring.
Senzel came up and and K'd 24.4% of the time. that difference is enormous. 7.2% BB rate...also a good bit better, especially compared with the K-rate.
Senzel is a better defender. i'm not sure that's debatable. perhaps it was a knock on him when drafted, but much like Riley, it's not anymore, but he's still a better defender who will also help more on the base paths.
Riley's wRC+ is heavily thrown off by his very unsustainable hot start. once pitchers found his weak spots he was getting eaten alive pretty much every single AB. Senzel didn't have nearly the same degree of problems.
IMO Riley's issue(s) is/are glaring and no one knows if it's something he can really fix. he's completely guessing up at the plate and pitchers know it. Senzel doesn't have the same kind of issue. Senzel is a better, more valuable piece.
so all of that is context you're leaving out.

Oh okay... Senzel was rated a 60 FV when he was a prospect and Riley was a 55 FV... completely trumps actual statistics lol

Oh lordy is right. You are vastly overrating him and you're just ignoring the context that he simply hasn't been that good yet.

 

[Super]

Oh okay... Senzel was rated a 60 FV when he was a prospect and Riley was a 55 FV... completely trumps actual statistics lol

Oh lordy is right.

was reading all the other stuff too difficult? i didn't even make the point that their ratings alone mean much.
i cited a bunch of "actual" statistics. you chose to ignore them. solid response from you.

 

[zbhargrove]

"all the injuries"? he was injured in 2018 but otherwise has played a lot of games.
i don't see his performance as disappointing. not every rookie lights the league on fire. he had solid peripherals and graded out positively defensively.
once again, you're overstating his team's feelings on him. he'll get plenty of playing time.

Ummm... he missed the rest of the season in 2019 in September because of a torn labrum and had surgery

 

[zbhargrove]

was reading all the other stuff too difficult? i didn't even make the point that their ratings alone mean much.
i cited a bunch of "actual" statistics. you chose to ignore them. solid response from you.

Oh so my actual statistics don't apply... but yours do?

Riley's work and BB/K rates at AAA were quite aways away from his MLB rates... its way too early to say if he can't normalize those rates a bit. Considering he's always struggled at a new step and has always adjusted, its stupid to think he can't improve.

 

[zbhargrove]

Ummm... he missed the rest of the season in 2019 in September because of a torn labrum and had surgery

He also missed the first 3 weeks of this season with a sprained ankle

 

[zbhargrove]

He also missed the first 3 weeks of this season with a sprained ankle

And he didn't just have the one injury in 2018... he missed a month because of vertigo and then his season ended in June with a fractured index finger. Then he had surgery to remove bone spurs in the off season.... so yeah, "all the injuries" seems pretty appropriate. Maybe you should learn a little more about the guy you're trying to hype up before you hype him up.

 

[Super]

Oh so my actual statistics don't apply... but yours do?

where did i say yours don't apply? all you cited was wRC+. while it uses a lot of stats, it's misleading in Riley's case and that's obvious. and i literally addressed that. i didn't ignore it, or say it doesn't apply. you addressed the first line of my post, and not a single stat i posted. again, man, just read. it's basic stuff.
do you not acknowledge that Riley's insane, completely unsustainable in every way start heavily weighed on his wRC+? do you not acknowledge how terrible he looked after that? do you not acknowledge the stats backing that up? do you not acknowledge the alarming k- and bb-rate? do you not acknowledge that a deeper dive into his swing #s show a complete guess hitter?

 

[Super]

And he didn't just have the one injury in 2018... he missed a month because of vertigo and then his season ended in June with a fractured index finger. Then he had surgery to remove bone spurs in the off season.... so yeah, "all the injuries" seems pretty appropriate. Maybe you should learn a little more about the guy you're trying to hype up before you hype him up.

"vertigo" = an injury. huh, news to me.
that's two injuries. wowzers.
he's played a good bit of games except for 2018...literally the same argument you were making for Haniger, except Senzel actually played more....

 

[zbhargrove]

where did i say yours don't apply? all you cited was wRC+. while it uses a lot of stats, it's misleading in Riley's case and that's obvious. and i literally addressed that. i didn't ignore it, or say it doesn't apply. you addressed the first line of my post, and not a single stat i posted. again, man, just read. it's basic stuff.
do you not acknowledge that Riley's insane, completely unsustainable in every way start heavily weighed on his wRC+? do you not acknowledge how terrible he looked after that? do you not acknowledge the stats backing that up? do you not acknowledge the alarming k- and bb-rate? do you not acknowledge that a deeper dive into his swing #s show a complete guess hitter?

wRC+ was not all I used... I used their rate stats at AAA... Riley hasn't had enough sample size at the MLB to glean if its just his usual struggle at a new level or his actual self. Either way you look at it, Senzel was still basically just as bad as him, even though Senzel had quite a few more plate appearances

 

[zbhargrove]

"vertigo" = an injury. huh, news to me.
that's two injuries. wowzers.
he's played a good bit of games except for 2018...literally the same argument you were making for Haniger, except Senzel actually played more....

So you keep ignoring posts.... by the way vertigo is a problem that can haunt people often well into the late stages of their life. It can be a significant problem (he missed a month, so apparently the injured list treated it as an injury)... he had the fractured his finger too in 2018

In 2019 he missed the first 3 weeks with a sprained ankle and then missed the end of the season with a torn labrum that he just had surgery on... that's 4 injuries in 2 years

You said he just had one injury and that was in 2018... a bit different than 4 in 2 years lol

 

[zbhargrove]

where did i say yours don't apply? all you cited was wRC+. while it uses a lot of stats, it's misleading in Riley's case and that's obvious. and i literally addressed that. i didn't ignore it, or say it doesn't apply. you addressed the first line of my post, and not a single stat i posted. again, man, just read. it's basic stuff.
do you not acknowledge that Riley's insane, completely unsustainable in every way start heavily weighed on his wRC+? do you not acknowledge how terrible he looked after that? do you not acknowledge the stats backing that up? do you not acknowledge the alarming k- and bb-rate? do you not acknowledge that a deeper dive into his swing #s show a complete guess hitter?

I completely acknowledge everything you say about Riley. I have also clearly said I'm not very high on him. I'm just not high on Senzel either. He simply hasn't been impressive. And neither has Riley. Its a gamble that either one will be much, IMO. You are the king at just picking out what you want to hear from posts.

I get you have a little man crush on Senzel, but he's not near as valuable as you think he is anymore (and neither is Riley so don't start that crap again as I was never using all this to support Riley, I was simply showing that the Senzel is just not that good)

 

[Carp]

I don't understand how you could say Senzel's value is the same when he's has a disappointing major league performance and his team shows little interest in giving him a full time position. Not to mention the injuries. All for a guy who wasn't viewed as having a huge upside anyway.

I wouldn't call Senzel's debut especially disappointing, though he certainly didn't set the world on fire. He was roughly a league average player overall while playing a position he had basically zero relevant experience at. He was pacing ~1 WAR for a full 162 game schedule.

Riley, OTOH was at replacement level, pacing for .5 WAR (or less). While he also was playing out of position, LF is a substantially easier position to field.

 

[zbhargrove]

I wouldn't call Senzel's debut especially disappointing, though he certainly didn't set the world on fire. He was roughly a league average player overall while playing a position he had basically zero relevant experience at. He was pacing a little over 1 WAR for a full 162 game schedule.

Riley, OTOH was at replacement level, pacing for .5 WAR (or less). While he also was playing out of position, LF is a substantially easier position to field.

Senzel was roughly average at defense... but he was clearly below average on the offensive side. A 90 wRC+ is 10% below league average... that's bad. He was certainly below average overall.

 

[Snowman]

Someone can probably find a better way to break this down, but...

Riley in 201 1st half PAs: 116 wRC+
Riley in 95 2nd half PAs: 22 wRC+
May: 63 PAs, 186 wRC+
Jun: 114 PAs, 96 wRC+
Jul: 70 PAs, 13 wRC+
Aug: 7 PAs, 180 wRC+
Sep/Oct: 42 PAs, 12 wRC+

Even the 22 seems to overstate how bad he was after the hot start, somehow.

 

[Super]

wRC+ was not all I used... I used their rate stats at AAA... Riley hasn't had enough sample size at the MLB to glean if its just his usual struggle at a new level or his actual self. Either way you look at it, Senzel was still basically just as bad as him, even though Senzel had quite a few more plate appearances

and you're ignoring the underlying stats that have been fleshed out on Riley. you're ignoring that his highly-unsustainable start is throwing off his wRC+. he was a much worse hitter than that indicates. Senzel was far more steady and his issues less huge and obvious. cite their rate stats at AAA all you want, but in the big leagues there was a huge discrepancy between them. and that's because Riley struggled more than Senzel. Riley wasn't bad, he was awful. unplayable. again, his issue has been fleshed out and it remains to be seen if it's fixable.
in July FG named Senzel the #37 most valuable trade piece and Riley was an HM...me calling Senzel a more valuable piece is hardly controversial.

 

[zbhargrove]

and you're ignoring the underlying stats that have been fleshed out on Riley. you're ignoring that his highly-unsustainable start is throwing off his wRC+. he was a much worse hitter than that indicates. Senzel was far more steady and his issues less huge and obvious. cite their rate stats at AAA all you want, but in the big leagues there was a huge discrepancy between them. and that's because Riley struggled more than Senzel. Riley wasn't bad, he was awful. unplayable. again, his issue has been fleshed out and it remains to be seen if it's fixable.
in July FG named Senzel the #37 most valuable trade piece and Riley was an HM...me calling Senzel a more valuable piece is hardly controversial.

I never said Senzel was less valuable than Riley... I was using Riley to point that Senzel hasn't been very good, which he hasn't. I'm not ignoring anything. They were both bad in their rookie years for different reasons, but results are results.

 

[Super]

I completely acknowledge everything you say about Riley. I have also clearly said I'm not very high on him. I'm just not high on Senzel either. He simply hasn't been impressive. And neither has Riley. Its a gamble that either one will be much, IMO. You are the king at just picking out what you want to hear from posts.

I get you have a little man crush on Senzel, but he's not near as valuable as you think he is anymore (and neither is Riley so don't start that crap again as I was never using all this to support Riley, I was simply showing that the Senzel is just not that good)

i don't even care about Senzel that much. i called him a very valuable piece (he is) and you started attacking for some reason.
lol.........you literally took the first line citing their FVs from my post with a lot more detail and responded only to that..tell me, who's the king of "picking out what you want to hear from posts."

 

[zbhargrove]

i don't even care about Senzel that much. i called him a very valuable piece (he is) and you started attacking for some reason.
lol.........you literally took the first line citing their FVs from my post with a lot more detail and responded only to that..tell me, who's the king of "picking out what you want to hear from posts."

Apparently both of us lol... I just don't see Senzel as being as valuable as you think he is. And I don't think the value gap between Riley and Senzel is as much as you think. Still don't think either one makes it into a big time player. And it makes no sense for the Braves to trade for another gamble in Senzel at this point in our window.