Official Offseason Thread

Snowman said:
Just at a guess, I think he'll settle down somewhere in the 25-30% range. Which, combined his poor walk rate, leads to a guy who needs to BABIP what, .380? just to be average.
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A player who K's 30% of the time, walks 10%, hits 30 HRs, BABIPs .320, and plays slightly above average defense at third is worth 3-4 WAR. I think that's the optimistic case for Riley.

If all of those numbers are slightly worse or one of them significantly worse, then it becomes a reach putting him in the lineup every day. It's a fine line.
 
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Snowman said:
Just at a guess, I think he'll settle down somewhere in the 25-30% range. Which, combined his poor walk rate, leads to a guy who needs to BABIP what, .380? just to be average.
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But the same variability that nsacpi noted in his k rate is also there in his walk rate. Sure, his MLB BB rate was awful at 5.4%, but in his 2019 AAA stint it was very good at 10.3%. When he struggled at AAA in 2018, it was still 8% and then it was at 9.9% in AA 2017. Seems to me his minor league walk rate is more in the line of 8-10% which is a decent number... a stark difference to his MLB 5.4%
 
zbhargrove said:
But the same variability that nsacpi noted in his k rate is also there in his walk rate. Sure, his MLB BB rate was awful at 5.4%, but in his 2019 AAA stint it was very good at 10.3%. When he struggled at AAA in 2018, it was still 8% and then it was at 9.9% in AA 2017. Seems to me his minor league walk rate is more in the line of 8-10% which is a decent number... a stark difference to his MLB 5.4%
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Now that would be a case of preconceptions. His approach reminding me of Frenchy last year absolutely led me to think he was also similar to him in that respect, and I totally forgot he had better BB rates in the minors.
 
nsacpi said:
A player who K's 30% of the time, walks 10%, hits 30 HRs, BABIPs .320, and plays slightly above average defense at third is worth 3-4 WAR. I think that's the optimistic case for Riley.

If all of those numbers are slightly worse or one of them significantly worse, then it becomes a reach putting him in the lineup every day. It's a fine line.
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i think the issue with his AAA walk rate in 2019 vs MLB walk rate is that MLB pitchers are much better at figuring out where you're weak. they found out he'll swing at a lot of pitches, strikes or not, and is prone to missing them. they didn't have to give him anything to hit, because he was probably going to swing anyway. his recognition as well as his contact rates were absolutely brutal. he was clearly getting by in the minors, but it's going to take a major adjustment.
 
Carp said:
I feel like we're splitting hairs here. Either way, he was a good bit better than Riley overall with solid rate stats.

Senzel is still pretty damn valuable. He was a 60 FV player just a year ago. I really don't think his value has changed much at all. He's lost a year of control but he also had mild success in the majors this year while playing a new position that also happens to be one of the hardest positions to play well. Either way, he isn't being moved unless the Reds are getting a major upgrade at a clear position of need. We don't currently have such a player that isn't already a core player.
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You know who thinks less of him? The Reds.

They signed free agents at every position he could conceivably play and are floating his name in trade talks.

Riley is irrelevant unless we are discussing whether we'd trade him in a package for Senzel.
 
mqt said:
I’d trade any non-Pache prospect for Bryant without a moment’s hesitation.
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It just depends on the value we'd be getting. If we could center a deal around Riley and an arm, I'd do it immediately. If its for Waters plus some sub 40 FV prospects, then I'd do it in a heartbeat. If its for Waters plus Wright or something along those lines, I'm not doing it.
 
Southcack77 said:
You know who thinks less of him? The Reds.

They signed free agents at every position he could conceivably play and are floating his name in trade talks.

Riley is irrelevant unless we are discussing whether we'd trade him in a package for Senzel.
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The Reds FO clearly feels the pressure to win now, as evidenced by their trades last year and their off-season signings this year. So I wouldn't put much stock into that. While they are floating his name in talks, it's more for high quality upgrades like Seagar and Lindor. Considering he's better suited for 3b and the Reds already have 3b locked up, it makes sense that they would use him to as trade bait for a significant upgrade.
 
Carp said:
The Reds FO clearly feels the pressure to win now, as evidenced by their trades last year and their off-season signings this year. So I wouldn't put much stock into that. While they are floating his name in talks, it's more for high quality upgrades like Seagar and Lindor. Considering he's better suited for 3b and the Reds already have 3b locked up, it makes sense that they would use him to as trade bait for a significant upgrade.
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open to trade him for Lindor = don't like him that much. duh!
 
Super said:
open to trade him for Lindor = don't like him that much. duh!
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For real. If we re-signed JD, I would have fully expected us to trade Riley at some point in a trade for a major upgrade. That wouldn't be because we think less of Riley, but more the fact that we are in win now mode, JD is an elite 3b, and Riley would be an expendable piece we could use fill a major need.
 
Carp said:
For real. If we re-signed JD, I would have fully expected us to trade Riley at some point in a trade for a major upgrade. That wouldn't be because we think less of Riley, but more the fact that we are in win now mode, JD is an elite 3b, and Riley would be an expendable piece we could use fill a major need.
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they could easily trade Senzel for a good bit right now if they genuinely didn't think highly of him.
 
zbhargrove said:
Come on... the report never said "Reds open to trading Senzel, but only if Lindor is involved"
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the report also doesn't say "the Reds aren't that high on Senzel, so they are open to trading him."
we can deduce based on their moves that they're trying to win now tho. trading Senzel only makes sense to upgrade a position of need. it makes much more sense that they're willing to use him to land a stud than it does that they don't like him much.
 
zbhargrove said:
Come on... the report never said "Reds open to trading Senzel, but only if Lindor is involved"
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The consensus from pretty much any article is that he's only available for a major upgrade to the team. Pretty much infers that they aren't trying to move him more than simply trying to make a major improvement to the club.
 
Rosenthal said on Hot Stove that most likely to be dealt in order was Betts > Bryant > Arenado > Lindor.
 
Senzel is the exact type of premium "win-now and later" piece it should take to pry Lindor away from the Indians. It's possible the Reds filled al those spots specifically to make losing Senzel not hurt as bad as it otherwise would.
 
Enscheff said:
Senzel is the exact type of premium "win-now and later" piece it should take to pry Lindor away from the Indians. It's possible the Reds filled al those spots specifically to make losing Senzel not hurt as bad as it otherwise would.
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I have a friend who is a Reds fan and he's praying with everything holy that Cincy trades Senzel in a package for Lindor.

I will say, the Reds have improved greatly, but they're a legitimate WS contender with Lindor.

Lindor, Votto, Suarez, Moustakas, Castellanos, Aquino, Akiyama, Barnhardt is CRAZY.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I have a friend who is a Reds fan and he's praying with everything holy that Cincy trades Senzel in a package for Lindor.

I will say, the Reds have improved greatly, but they're a legitimate WS contender with Lindor.

Lindor, Votto, Suarez, Moustakas, Castellanos, Aquino, Akiyama, Barnhardt is CRAZY.
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Yah but they didn't stockpile on pitching like we did from 2015 to 2017
 
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