Official Offseason Thread

zbhargrove said:
If they wouldn't accept that deal, they'd be idiots considering the return from the Angels was significantly lower. That being said, I hope we wouldn't do it.
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What reasoning? Maybe you see something in Wilson and Jenista that I don't. I see Wilson as an upside at best #4 with LR being more likely. He doesn't have the stuff to close. Jenista is a project who really is living off reputation right now.

As for Camargo, he's a reasonable utility piece with no every day home. He's either going to become an everyday guy somewhere or become too expensive to be the Braves utility man soon (1-2 years). Hech and/or Solarte are likely replacements. To not want to move Camargo is to believe that he will once again be a 3.5 WAR guy. I don't believe that.
 
Snowman said:
Nah, that wasn't quite why I have doubts. I just think the drop in defense from Ender/Acuna to Acuna full-time and the drop from Camargo to Adeiny would wipe out nearly all of the one win improvement we'd get from turning Ender/Markakis/Duvall into a full-time Joc.
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In my scenario, Inciarte is in a different deal to bring back young talent (not needed to today, but to keep the future going) and cutting dollar obligations both for 2020 and beyond. Instead of Camargo to Adeiny it might be Camargo to Solarte or Riley or someone acquired in the Inciarte trade.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Wasn't the package for Pederson just Luis Rengifo? If so, I think offering Camargo, Wilson, and Jenista to allow the Dodgers to get under the luxury tax while getting back a guy who doesn't platoon well with our current outfield mix doesn't seem like a terrific idea and a pretty substantial overpay to a team with the Dodger's motivations.
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It was Pederson & Stripling for Rengifo and 2 prospects.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Newk probably gets the edge for me as well, but honestly, I prefer to view that group as a whole rather than individually. I don't have an extreme amount of faith in any one candidate, but I have a ton of faith in that group's ability to collectively provide a good back end starter for us. Some come with more risk, but higher upside. Some come with a higher floor, but don't offer much beyond being a solid #5 or maybe #4. But viewed as a whole, I would be extremely surprised if one of them didn't come up and provide solid value for us this year.
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That was extremely well said. Thank you.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
In my scenario, Inciarte is in a different deal to bring back young talent (not needed to today, but to keep the future going) and cutting dollar obligations both for 2020 and beyond. Instead of Camargo to Adeiny it might be Camargo to Solarte or Riley or someone acquired in the Inciarte trade.
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Adeiny is the best bet, barring someone coming in from out of the org. It's perfectly reasonable to think a Cerberus of Ender/Markakis/Duvall can collectively manage 1.5-2 WAR in their starts, and Joc is a 2.5-3 WAR player. So it's a one win improvement at one position that probably weakens us at another (admittedly already very weak) position and weakens our defense up the middle. I just can't see the math working for us there. Seems close to break-even, rearranging deck chairs.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Well, the Dodgers reportedly had an agreement in place with the Angels Pederson and Stripling for Rengifo and two minor leaguers. Rengifo is a not-quite Camargo. So that leaves the two minor leaguers. If you take Jo Adell out of the talks, which has to be done, then any two prospects that the Angels would have included would likely be no better than the two I included from the Braves.

To believe your stance that the Braves wouldn't likely be better would be to believe that Camargo and Inciarte return to 2018 form. And with Pederson improving and going into his age 28 season, I'm not sure even THAT would be good enough.

To me, this is about short and long term roster management. Inciarte has no [place on this team long term. Short term, yes, but there are options if he wasn't around. As for 3B and Camargo, do you really think that is the plan?
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There was never any report that I saw that included any prospects from the Angels. There was a prospect included from the Dodgers side... a high ceiling A ball spect.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
It was Pederson & Stripling for Rengifo and 2 prospects.
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I don't think so... it was reported that it was Pederson and Stripling for Rengifo as well as an exchange of lower-level prospects. One of those was from the Dodgers side... there hasn't been any publication that has reported any specifics regarding prospects except the one high ceiling OFer the Dodgers included... but even then its been talked about as "lower level prospects"... Wilson is a top 100 prospect. Camargo is likely better than Rengifo. Sure Pederson had a good year and is only 28 but he's a strict platoon player and is just a one year rental.
 
Snowman said:
Adeiny is the best bet, barring someone coming in from out of the org. It's perfectly reasonable to think a Cerberus of Ender/Markakis/Duvall can collectively manage 1.5-2 WAR in their starts, and Joc is a 2.5-3 WAR player. So it's a one win improvement at one position that probably weakens us at another (admittedly already very weak) position and weakens our defense up the middle. I just can't see the math working for us there. Seems close to break-even, rearranging deck chairs.
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Even if it's break even short term, which I don't believe, but even if, it is a better long term play because you pick up a 30 YO starter with 3 years of control left who makes $2.1M in 2020 who's peripherals look good. He can start or LR. Plus you pick up talent and move money on the Ender trade. Maybe send Ender to Cleveland (who has the need) for a couple of young arms still a long way from the majors but with upside (my wish would be Espino and Hankins). And you clear the way for the young OF, one of which may be ready by mid-season.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Well, the Dodgers reportedly had an agreement in place with the Angels Pederson and Stripling for Rengifo and two minor leaguers. Rengifo is a not-quite Camargo. So that leaves the two minor leaguers. If you take Jo Adell out of the talks, which has to be done, then any two prospects that the Angels would have included would likely be no better than the two I included from the Braves.

To believe your stance that the Braves wouldn't likely be better would be to believe that Camargo and Inciarte return to 2018 form. And with Pederson improving and going into his age 28 season, I'm not sure even THAT would be good enough.

To me, this is about short and long term roster management. Inciarte has no [place on this team long term. Short term, yes, but there are options if he wasn't around. As for 3B and Camargo, do you really think that is the plan?
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Uhh, what?

Pederson hasn't really "improved" at all. He simply hasn't been allowed to hit against LHP as often as he was at the start of his career, evidenced by a career low amount of at bats against LHP, despite having the 2nd most overall PA's of his career. If Inciarte gets back to 2018 levels, he is absolutely a better player than Joc Pederson. If Camargo gets back to 2018 levels, he also is a better overall player than Pederson.

I'm not sure how this has anything to do with long term roster management. It helps us out zero in long term roster management, aside from freeing up 8 million in 2021, in which case, a healthy Ender is at least a 1 win player on defense alone. We aren't replacing his value for 8 million.
 
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Carp said:
Uhh, what?

Pederson hasn't really "improved" at all. He simply hasn't been allowed to hit against LHP as often as he was at the start of his career, evidenced by a career low amount of at bats against LHP, despite having the 2nd most overall PA's of his career. If Inciarte gets back to 2018 levels, he is absolutely a better player than Joc Pederson. If Camargo gets back to 2018 levels, he also is a better overall player than Pederson.

I'm not sure how this has anything to do with long term roster management. It helps us out zero in long term roster management, aside from freeing up 8 million in 2021, in which case, a healthy Ender is at least a 1 win player on defense alone. We aren't replacing his value for 8 million.
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Yeah... seems Harry has been hitting the sauce again. Maybe we can throw in Freeman.
 
zbhargrove said:
I don't think so... it was reported that it was Pederson and Stripling for Rengifo as well as an exchange of lower-level prospects. One of those was from the Dodgers side... there hasn't been any publication that has reported any specifics regarding prospects except the one high ceiling OFer the Dodgers included... but even then its been talked about as "lower level prospects"... Wilson is a top 100 prospect. Camargo is likely better than Rengifo. Sure Pederson had a good year and is only 28 but he's a strict platoon player and is just a one year rental.
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I don't know the prospects from either side of the failed deal. I'm speculating based on logic - the two prospects on the Angels side can't include Jo Adell. Marsh is listed by the new FG rankings as #36 so he's probably out too. Adams is at 79, so let's say it was him. Well Adams = Wilson. Jenista probably is about like the other Angels piece. Camargo > than Rengio. If the Dodgers were sending a high A prospect back, we're talking what: Michael Grove? Jacob Amaya? Devin Mann? Edwin Uceta? A bunch of off the radar guys I guess.

edit. OK, Pages. I'd do the deal. Surely AA would have pretty good insight into what the previous agreement was. I'm not advocating an overpay.
 
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Horsehide Harry said:
I don't know the prospects from either side of the failed deal. I'm speculating based on logic - the two prospects on the Angels side can't include Jo Adell. Marsh is listed by the new FG rankings as #36 so he's probably out too. Adams is at 79, so let's say it was him. Well Adams = Wilson. Jenista probably is about like the other Angels piece. Camargo > than Rengio. If the Dodgers were sending a high A prospect back, we're talking what: Michael Grove? Jacob Amaya? Devin Mann? Edwin Uceta? A bunch of off the radar guys I guess.

edit. OK, Pages. I'd do the deal. Surely AA would have pretty good insight into what the previous agreement was. I'm not advocating an overpay.
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A top 100 prospect is not a "lower level" prospect
 
I don’t read all the bickering battles but I hope I didn’t read that people think a joc/ duvvy platoon wouldn’t be much of an upgrade over a Neck/duvvy platoon because of camargo being lost. A joc-duvvy platoon would be 2-3 wins better.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I don’t read all the bickering battles but I hope I didn’t read that people think a joc/ duvvy platoon wouldn’t be much of an upgrade over a Neck/duvvy platoon because of camargo being lost. A joc-duvvy platoon would be 2-3 wins better.
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The only person saying precisely that is Harry, who is setting it up as a strawman to knock down.
 
Carp said:
Uhh, what?

Pederson hasn't really "improved" at all. He simply hasn't been allowed to hit against LHP as often as he was at the start of his career, evidenced by a career low amount of at bats against LHP, despite having the 2nd most overall PA's of his career. If Inciarte gets back to 2018 levels, he is absolutely a better player than Joc Pederson. If Camargo gets back to 2018 levels, he also is a better overall player than Pederson.

I'm not sure how this has anything to do with long term roster management. It helps us out zero in long term roster management, aside from freeing up 8 million in 2021, in which case, a healthy Ender is at least a 1 win player on defense alone. We aren't replacing his value for 8 million.
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Point of fact, Pederson has generally generated more WAR than Inciarte over his career and certainly did last season.

Point of fact, Pederson is projected to be more valuable than Inciarte this season.

Point of fact, Camargo's underlying numbers have never suggested that his 2018 numbers are a reasonable expectation.


Opinion: Inciarte is a defense first player who relies on athleticism and quick twitch burst rather than straight line speed to create his defensive value. One way that decline often presents itself for such players is in nagging injuries.
 
Southcack77 said:
Point of fact, Pederson has generally generated more WAR than Inciarte over his career and certainly did last season.

Point of fact, Pederson is projected to be more valuable than Inciarte this season.

Point of fact, Camargo's underlying numbers have never suggested that his 2018 numbers are a reasonable expectation.


Opinion: Inciarte is a defense first player who relies on athleticism and quick twitch burst rather than straight line speed to create his defensive value. One way that decline often presents itself for such players is in nagging injuries.
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Exactly
 
Southcack77 said:
Point of fact, Pederson has generally generated more WAR than Inciarte over his career and certainly did last season.

Point of fact, Pederson is projected to be more valuable than Inciarte this season.

Point of fact, Camargo's underlying numbers have never suggested that his 2018 numbers are a reasonable expectation.


Opinion: Inciarte is a defense first player who relies on athleticism and quick twitch burst rather than straight line speed to create his defensive value. One way that decline often presents itself for such players is in nagging injuries.
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1. Over the last 3 years, Ender has generated more WAR than Joc. That's a fact. Even over the last 4 years, Ender still has a .1 WAR edge. And since Joc came into the league, Joc only leads Ender in WAR by a mere .7 WAR. So please, don't act like Joc is clearly superior player. He has a small advantage currently, due to coming off a better season, but there is no real reason to assume Ender will be either bad defensively or poor offensively in 2020.

2. No one said Camargo was likely to repeat 2018. Harrry said Camargo AND Ender would have to return to 2018 form in order for the Braves not be better off with Joc. That is beyond absurd. 2018 Ender and 2018 Camargo were both better than 2019 Joc.


I'm not sure what people's infatuation is with Joc Pederson, but he's an extremely limited player. He's basically another Jay Bruce, except he's a worse defender. Definitely useful, but not a great fit on this team since Neck isn't going anywhere.
 
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