Thanks for that info CLV. I think I'd set a rule in my head as a GM to never extend a pitcher on their rookie contract. For sure it would come back to bite me occasionally, but it just seems too risky. I always think back to one of my favorite Braves ever, Steve Avery when I think of what can easily happen.
Yeah - obviously dicey. It just feels like AA is in the situation where they're going to have to take a gamble or two like that if they're looking for an extended window. If we haven't been able to develop an "Ace" from within with the stockpile we've had recently (and Fried or Soroka doesn't turn into that quickly), it just feels like that guy's not coming while we have the current core under control while it's affordable.
As Heyward mentions, We've got Fried under control through his age-31 season without an extension. Given the questions that have arisen with Wright and Anderson, the "hole" that's coming at the lower levels, the fact that we'll likely be picking in the mid-to-late 20s for the foreseeable future, and the fact that Acuna and Albies won't be such "bargains" two years from now having an affordable #1-#2 combination under control seems like the best hope for an extended legitimate contention window. If AA could extend that control of Fried until he's 33, the likelihood he lands a serious deal at a level we can't compete for him on probably evaporates.
Hopefully The Battery keeps steaming along and we continue to be surprised with the growing payroll - just not sure I trust that just yet.