The Coronavirus, not the beer

It is also likewise impossible for the virus to have been widespread in Italy for 4 months and then only in February see an exponential explosion of deaths. Your theory and mine are equally plausible.

If the seeds arrived 4 months ago but people didn't start dying in noticeable numbers until February then it would be clear they wouldn't have been actually infecting people based on the same R0 as you see once the virus is widespread (or alternately you think there is a multi-month incubation period). That means you have 2 separate functions. So yeah, I care about what is happening now.

FOr starters seeds were arriving 4 months ago and have been planted almost every day since that point in time especially in Europe where they didn't ban travel until much later.

You actually have thousands of seperate functions each on their own trajectory based on time planted and the travel patters of the seed. So the coefficient of the aggregate equation is extremely high which causes the spike at one point in time.

It takes a long ****ing time to build but when enough of the seed infection functions reach their peak it climaxes fast.

I am sorry that you don't seem to understand this basic premise but that is the truth of it all.
 
[tw]1243953994743103489[/tw]

I wonder if chosen one has considered the possibility that this kind of thinking aloud will cause more New Yorkers to leave town.

When word got around that the Italian government was considering a quarantine of Northern Italy it triggered a wave of people getting out of dodge and they decided the only way to make it work was to make the quarantine nationwide.

chosen one continues to act in an impulsive and undisciplined way. chosen one continues to push out poorly thought out ideas and misinformation. chosen one's incompetent laidership is contributing to more lives being lost.
 
[tw]1243953994743103489[/tw]

I wonder if chosen one has considered the possibility that this kind of thinking aloud will cause more New Yorkers to leave town.

When word got around that the Italian government was considering a quarantine of Northern Italy it triggered a wave of people getting out of dodge and they decided the only way to make it work was to make the quarantine nationwide. If you are going to do something like that you need to implement it not publicly muse about it. And you will need coordination and buy in on the part of the states and cities affected.

chosen one continues to act in an impulsive and undisciplined way. chosen one continues to push out poorly thought out ideas and misinformation. chosen one's incompetent laidership is contributing to more lives being lost.
 
Last edited:
Makes sense that you consider cooperation to be "taking orders."

Wonder if the WHO approved the China detection tests that were later defunct.

These globalist organizations are just spheres of influence for the CCP. It what its always been and why the media is so against the conservative/libertarian populist movement.

Russia hysteria was not an accident. None of the media and leftist shenanigans from the past few years are by accident. It all helps China to have a weaker America.
 
[tw]1243953994743103489[/tw]

I wonder if chosen one has considered the possibility that this kind of thinking aloud will cause more New Yorkers to leave town.

When word got around that the Italian government was considering a quarantine of Northern Italy it triggered a wave of people getting out of dodge and they decided the only way to make it work was to make the quarantine nationwide.

chosen one continues to act in an impulsive and undisciplined way. chosen one continues to push out poorly thought out ideas and misinformation. chosen one's incompetent laidership is contributing to more lives being lost.

'Chosen One' is the only reason we don't have thousands more deaths already.
 
[tw]1243949631144419329[/tw]

Increase in rate of aggregate deaths will lag the rate of increase in infection/admissions.

Its horrible when people die but lots of good signs coming out of Italy and they drastically need it.
 
You actually have thousands of seperate functions each on their own trajectory based on time planted and the travel patters of the seed. So the coefficient of the aggregate equation is extremely high which causes the spike at one point in time.

It takes a long ****ing time to build but when enough of the seed infection functions reach their peak it climaxes fast.

Uh-huh, so I'll just go back to my original question and ask, what would that curve actually look like? And how would the current data actually fit on it?

This would all be more convincing if the "aggregate peak" weren't starting from basically 0 in late February. But I guess I understand your model now. Lots of magical Chinese viruses that all follow their magic paths and somehow all killed next to nobody for months but then everyone at once in March despite the fact everyone had it since October. Once we understand this special circumstance, it will let us "analyze function" and see that... something? No one is actually dying? 900 deaths a day is... fine? I guess I'm not entire clear on the takeaway, but thank you for walking me through it.

Anyway, I will still probably stick with just listening to actual epidemiologists. Just to be safe.
 
Uh-huh, so I'll just go back to my original question and ask, what would that curve actually look like? And how would the current data actually fit on it?

This would all be more convincing if the "aggregate peak" weren't starting from basically 0 in late February. But I guess I understand your model now. Lots of magical Chinese viruses that all follow their magic paths and somehow all killed next to nobody for months but then everyone at once in March despite the fact everyone had it since October. Once we understand this special circumstance, it will let us "analyze function" and see that... something? No one is actually dying? 900 deaths a day is... fine? I guess I'm not entire clear on the takeaway, but thank you for walking me through it.

Anyway, I will still probably stick with just listening to actual epidemiologists. Just to be safe.

Ignore the Reuters article I sent of course.

Ignore the fact that lots of 'flus' are just diagnosed as the general one when people go into urgent cares and the like. This did not start happening in February and that is your biggest misconeption.

You refuse to acknowledge two basis premises:

1 - The virus is highlight transmittable.

2 - Travelers from China during the October-February (January for the US) period had a certain infection rate based on the spread in China.

It is alarming that someone with a high degree of intellect can't seem to grasp these two undeniable facts and what those mean for the overall function.
 
Ignore the Reuters article I sent of course.

Ignore the fact that lots of 'flus' are just diagnosed as the general one when people go into urgent cares and the like. This did not start happening in February and that is your biggest misconeption.

You refuse to acknowledge two basis premises:

1 - The virus is highlight transmittable.

2 - Travelers from China during the October-February (January for the US) period had a certain infection rate based on the spread in China.

It is alarming that someone with a high degree of intellect can't seem to grasp these two undeniable facts and what those mean for the overall function.

1) Didn't ignore the article. I read it and it said this:

Other experts cast doubt on the hypothesis that the new virus could have been circulating in Europe before the end of 2019.

“I think it extremely unlikely that the virus was present in Europe before January,” said Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia who has been tracking the evolving pandemic.

Hunter said that unless Italian scientists get positive results from samples taken and stored at that time, then the suggestion should not be given credence.

He added that, given what we know about how infectious the virus is, and the ratio of patients showing no symptoms compared with those that get sick, “it is inconceivable that we would not have had a pretty major epidemic in Europe much earlier if these cases had in fact been COVID-19”.

2) You actually ignored the fact that the increase in NY flu numbers is based on lab-confirmed cases.

3) I absolutely acknowledge it is highly transmittable. I have literally never denied this. I have said that different people spread at different rates which is obvious. Isolated people/groups spread less; this is also obvious.

4) "Travelers from China had an infection rate" is not saying anything. It is axiomatically true that anyone who left Wuhan with the virus was at risk of spreading the virus to other wherever they went. No one denies that. But that does not automatically mean that wherever they arrived was immediately subject to a widespread pandemic. Initial person to person transmission rates among "seeders" can vary widely. That's why New Rochelle exploded - one dude went literally everywhere in the whole town. But the guy next to him on the plane might have just gone home and slept.
 
I will repeat:

Uh-huh, so I'll just go back to my original question and ask, what would that curve actually look like? And how would the current data actually fit on it?

Please answer this. I'm not responding to any other of your gobbledygook until you do.
 
I will repeat:



Please answer this. I'm not responding to any other of your gobbledygook until you do.

It's impossible to know what the curve looks like because we dont know exposure levels. But using what we know we can assume the the curve is reaching its peak since we can safely say the virus has been here since q4 19.
 
It's impossible to know what the curve looks like because we dont know exposure levels. But using what we know we can assume the the curve is reaching its peak since we can safely say the virus has been here since q4 19.

Telling is not showing. Show me a possible curve that begins in October and has the current death totals.
 
Back
Top