Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
I've seen constant criticism from media and this board about Trumps resistance to work with WHO
Makes sense that you consider cooperation to be "taking orders."
I've seen constant criticism from media and this board about Trumps resistance to work with WHO
It is also likewise impossible for the virus to have been widespread in Italy for 4 months and then only in February see an exponential explosion of deaths. Your theory and mine are equally plausible.
If the seeds arrived 4 months ago but people didn't start dying in noticeable numbers until February then it would be clear they wouldn't have been actually infecting people based on the same R0 as you see once the virus is widespread (or alternately you think there is a multi-month incubation period). That means you have 2 separate functions. So yeah, I care about what is happening now.
Makes sense that you consider cooperation to be "taking orders."
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I wonder if chosen one has considered the possibility that this kind of thinking aloud will cause more New Yorkers to leave town.
When word got around that the Italian government was considering a quarantine of Northern Italy it triggered a wave of people getting out of dodge and they decided the only way to make it work was to make the quarantine nationwide.
chosen one continues to act in an impulsive and undisciplined way. chosen one continues to push out poorly thought out ideas and misinformation. chosen one's incompetent laidership is contributing to more lives being lost.
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Lets pray this continues but we will have explosions in other major cities that had travel with china.
It prevents him from discussion Taiwan as if they don't exist?
You actually have thousands of seperate functions each on their own trajectory based on time planted and the travel patters of the seed. So the coefficient of the aggregate equation is extremely high which causes the spike at one point in time.
It takes a long ****ing time to build but when enough of the seed infection functions reach their peak it climaxes fast.
No response to this question eh Meta?
Uh-huh, so I'll just go back to my original question and ask, what would that curve actually look like? And how would the current data actually fit on it?
This would all be more convincing if the "aggregate peak" weren't starting from basically 0 in late February. But I guess I understand your model now. Lots of magical Chinese viruses that all follow their magic paths and somehow all killed next to nobody for months but then everyone at once in March despite the fact everyone had it since October. Once we understand this special circumstance, it will let us "analyze function" and see that... something? No one is actually dying? 900 deaths a day is... fine? I guess I'm not entire clear on the takeaway, but thank you for walking me through it.
Anyway, I will still probably stick with just listening to actual epidemiologists. Just to be safe.
What further response? The answer is obviously "yes."
Ignore the Reuters article I sent of course.
Ignore the fact that lots of 'flus' are just diagnosed as the general one when people go into urgent cares and the like. This did not start happening in February and that is your biggest misconeption.
You refuse to acknowledge two basis premises:
1 - The virus is highlight transmittable.
2 - Travelers from China during the October-February (January for the US) period had a certain infection rate based on the spread in China.
It is alarming that someone with a high degree of intellect can't seem to grasp these two undeniable facts and what those mean for the overall function.
Other experts cast doubt on the hypothesis that the new virus could have been circulating in Europe before the end of 2019.
“I think it extremely unlikely that the virus was present in Europe before January,” said Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia who has been tracking the evolving pandemic.
Hunter said that unless Italian scientists get positive results from samples taken and stored at that time, then the suggestion should not be given credence.
He added that, given what we know about how infectious the virus is, and the ratio of patients showing no symptoms compared with those that get sick, “it is inconceivable that we would not have had a pretty major epidemic in Europe much earlier if these cases had in fact been COVID-19”.
Uh-huh, so I'll just go back to my original question and ask, what would that curve actually look like? And how would the current data actually fit on it?
What further response? The answer is obviously "yes."
I will repeat:
Please answer this. I'm not responding to any other of your gobbledygook until you do.
So the fact that China has effectively silenced a WHO official doesnt concern you about WHO agenda or mission?
It's impossible to know what the curve looks like because we dont know exposure levels. But using what we know we can assume the the curve is reaching its peak since we can safely say the virus has been here since q4 19.