The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
If you actually read that report, they are attempting to extrapolate transmission rates by starting from death rates, since it is clear that testing can't tell us anything. I feel like that just has to have high error bars, since we don't actually have a completely solid idea of the real death rates either. So for Italy they are using 10,000 [8,200 - 13,000] deaths
C2C is essentially right - without testing you really aren't gonna be be very precise in these things; you will need to plan for both the best and worst case scenarios without being able to narrow them down.
However, thethe's belief that this report somehow proves the death rate will turn out super low (when it is literally based on existing estimates of the infection fatality ratio [note, not the CFR] which range from ~.4% to 1.3%) just makes him seems illiterate. Like with words now, not just math. Though also math, because he takes the far edge of the confidence interval as being the "prediction."
These numbers probably should have even higher error bars if you dislike the fact that they rely heavily on Chinese death data, which I think most people in this thread would guess has been underreported.
C2C is essentially right - without testing you really aren't gonna be be very precise in these things; you will need to plan for both the best and worst case scenarios without being able to narrow them down.
However, thethe's belief that this report somehow proves the death rate will turn out super low (when it is literally based on existing estimates of the infection fatality ratio [note, not the CFR] which range from ~.4% to 1.3%) just makes him seems illiterate. Like with words now, not just math. Though also math, because he takes the far edge of the confidence interval as being the "prediction."
These numbers probably should have even higher error bars if you dislike the fact that they rely heavily on Chinese death data, which I think most people in this thread would guess has been underreported.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
This question is grammatical gobbledygook and incoherent. I have no idea what you are asking.
Jeez, I'm trying fast from a phone as infrequently do.
Based on the models (real life) that you presented please help me with the following:
1. When was the original infection?
2. Based on the trajectory of deaths and what we know of the virus transmission should we expect a massive spike soon for NY deaths?
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job.
[tw]1244711625954856963[/tw]
[tw]1244711625954856963[/tw]
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
i'm shocked
the reality star who wants ratings and loyalty over competence is doing a bad job
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
lol
alex jones in a court document
when he lost custody for his kids
said his show is fake
but thanks for the laugh on "listen to alex jones.... lots of what he said is coming true"
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
My initial thought was "oof" what a boner.
My second thought was "wait why are there no dates in this clip?" So I googled it and the president on Tuesday 3/17 promised the ship would be there "next week," which did not come true. This clip is from 3/20, Friday of that same week. It actually arrived "week after next" in that context, so technically not wrong. But she is clearly implying, if not explicitly stating, that they wouldn't be there for many weeks, which is a big ol' pot of wrong.
I have to rescind my initial full boner award, but I still things this deserves a half boner.
Mostly I'm mad on behalf of Alex Jones. The man has worked so hard to say literally the craziest things he can imagine, and y'all are just out here equating him with crappy media hottakes. Put some respect on his name.
You realize that Maddow said the same right?
Just making sure that you know in court maddow said the same.
And listening to Jones is about the entertainment value. The podcast with rogan was pure gold.
sturg33
I
My initial thought was "oof" what a boner.
My second thought was "wait why are there no dates in this clip?" So I googled it and the president on Tuesday 3/17 promised the ship would be there "next week," which did not come true. This clip is from 3/20, Friday of that same week. It actually arrived "week after next" in that context, so technically not wrong. But she is clearly implying, if not explicitly stating, that they wouldn't be there for many weeks, which is a big ol' pot of wrong.
I have to rescind my initial full boner award, but I still things this deserves a half boner.
Mostly I'm mad on behalf of Alex Jones. The man has worked so hard to say literally the craziest things he can imagine, and y'all are just out here equating him with crappy media hottakes. Put some respect on his name.
Maddow isn't that far removed from nightly segments about Russia controlling and running our government
Almost everyone knows Jones is crazy. But Maddow somehow draws a decent sized audience
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
i'm not here giving your glowing reviews of maddow.
i'm sure the new town families love the entertainment he inspires
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Just so we are clear, I did not present "a model." The first graph was the actual COVID-19 deaths in New York v. your proposal. The second graph just shows that the absurdity of what you are saying will increase if the death rate continues to increase at or near the current rate.
1) I've told you multiple times I don't know, and if wasn't widespread enough to be killing people I don't care. The first date of infection is not determinative, since on a individual level, rates of transmission can vary widely, and we are interested in the transmission rate once it is actually spreading among an aggregate sample. The report you were blindly jerking off to upthread has a another good example of why using date of first occurrence is not a primary concern when modeling:
2) We... already have seen a massive spike. That's the orange on the graph I posted. The daily death count in NY has been doubling every 2 days. When Trump promised to send that ship on 3/17 like 12 people total had died, averaging just a few per day. We are now averaging 200+ per day and that rate is still increasing through today. Or to put it in "basic calculus" terms for mega-geniuses such as yourself, the "slope of the derivative" is still comfortably over 1.
I have no idea what to expect in the future and I hope we are far enough into distancing, etc. that the already spiking death rate plateaus immediately, and then starts going down. If that happens, it doesn't prove your hare-brained theory where 13M of the 19M people in NY are already infected. It most likely means the intervention measures are actually having an effect.
Now you explain how NYC could have missed 1000 COVID deaths in March. I'll wait. Likely forever.
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Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Completely non-responsive as expected.
Not sure why you keep saying it's just for NY. Because if you isolate for just them than the rate of transmission over time changes. It was a GENERAL graph (not sure how many times i have to say that) to show how the death count could be right based on the seed infection happening in novemebr.
I also noted that deaths are not as predictable as infection because infection doesnt matter who the host is but death does.