The Coronavirus, not the beer

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I'm shocked the experts got this wrong.

Where is the mocking at hunches now?
 
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Someone make the argument why we should stay at home please. Using updated data.
 
thethe said:
What in the data is telling you that?
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The data suggest starting in a week or so, we will be at 3,000+ fatalities per day and will stay there for a while. The number of hotspots in significant population centers continues to grow.
 
nsacpi said:
The data suggest starting in a week or so, we will be at 3,000+ fatalities per day and will stay there for a while. The number of hotspots in significant population centers continues to grow.
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You are assuming NY continues for a while. That doesnt make sense.
 
I look at Bergen and Essex counties in New Jersey (and things have not peaked there) and they are a forerunner for what is going to happen in all the big suburban counties (Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Fairfield).

The city itself will not peak for another week or two. Things don't go to zero after the peak. More people will die after the peak than before.
 
nsacpi said:
I look at Bergen and Essex counties in New Jersey (and things have not peaked there) and they are a forerunner for what is going to happen in all the big suburban counties (Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Fairfield).

The city itself will not peak for another week or two. Things don't go to zero after the peak. More people will die after the peak than before.
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It's not hard to visualize. 4 week max lifecycle and that's generous. After 4 weeks the amount of new cases will fall off a cliff because of tbendrastic change in movement.

What's the argument that supports it will last longer than 2 weeks at these levels in NY
 
thethe said:
It's not hard to visualize. 4 week max lifecycle and that's generous. After 4 weeks the amount of new cases will fall off a cliff because of tbendrastic change in movement.

What's the argument that supports it will last longer than 2 weeks at these levels in NY
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Italy is a week or two ahead of New York. Their daily death numbers have been over 600 for 15 consecutive days. And we know in parts of Italy they have undercounted deaths by about 50%. And their quarantine has been much stricter than ours.
 
nsacpi said:
Italy is a week or two ahead of New York. Their daily death numbers have been over 600 for 15 consecutive days. And we know in parts of Italy they have undercounted deaths by about 50%. And their quarantine has been much stricter than ours.
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And their population is much more at risk.

The rate of growth is what it is. I'm just not sure why people are ignoring the delta between the projections we made all these dire decisions off of and the actuals. This is basic modeling.
 
It's just more of the same from the establisment. They've gotten every big event wrong for decades. Thought Trump would be different. Never been more disappointed in his administration than I am now.
 
Lets start talking conspiracy theory. Left new that trump was going to cruise based on economy. We have seen them do all types of unethical things already. Do we doubt how far they'd go to stop trump?
 
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