The Coronavirus, not the beer

sturg33 said:
I haven't. Care to share?
Click to expand...

I re-posted...see tweet from Ben Judah a couple posts up.

But there is also this from the WSJ five days ago:

In the areas worst hit by the pandemic, Italy is undercounting thousands of deaths caused by the virus, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows, indicating that the pandemic’s human toll may end up being much greater, and infections far more widespread, than official data indicate.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

And this from NY Magazine:

Less than two weeks ago, Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera published the results of an informal study that appeared to show that, in some regions of the country, non-coronavirus deaths were rising at an alarming rate alongside confirmed COVID-19 deaths — that the total death count was up as much as sixfold from previous years. Those deaths officially attributed to the coronavirus accounted for barely a quarter of the increase.

And Italy isn’t alone. In Spain, El País obtained a study that showed mortality rates in some regions had almost doubled, with only a fraction of the increase officially attributed to COVID-19. So what accounts for all those other deaths? Is the ultimate death toll from this pandemic going to be that much higher everywhere than is understood at the time? If we were able to allocate medical resources more effectively, could we reduce that number?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-is-only-part-of-the-excess-fatality-mystery.html
 
sturg33 said:
You're not doing a great job describing the WHY of your posts.
Click to expand...

Sturg, I gave a very direct takedown of this dude's credibility. Your response was "I don't care. He seems smart." I'm not going literally go through every dumb thing this guys posts.

But, one final issue, in bullet points:

- Of course there are co-morbid conditions on many or most of the deaths. That's literally not news. Pre-existing conditions as the biggest factor has long been shouted from the rooftops.
- This is not different from how we track the flu or other epidemics, as far as I am aware
- If someone with a bad ticker dies after being admitted to the hospital for COVID, you can't just say "well that one doesn't count." The whole point is that these are the issues that get exacerbated.
- Overall death rates for COVID/Pneumonia-associated deaths are down across the country. For the US deaths over last week were ~83% of where they normally are, presumably at least in part due to various shutdown effects. This is true even in places with almost no COVID deaths so far. In NY, where people were actually dying, overall deaths were 119% of normal. So while the rest of the nation is down maybe 20%, the place where the COVID deaths are is actually up by 20%.
- Most reporting shows that COVID deaths are actually more likely to be undercounted. I've read a number of articles to this effect and you can google them if you care. (I see nsacpi has posted some)

I am absolutely sure that someone somewhere has had their death misattributed to COVID. A number of people even. I highly doubt that will have a major impact on the overall numbers.

I'm not gonna go into it any deeper. If you find that unconvincing because it's not "skeptical" enough, then so be it.
 
Last edited:
sturg33 said:
Interesting. Do we have US numbers?
Click to expand...

No. I believe these numbers take a long time to assemble at the national level. They are assembled at the local level. Death certificate by death certificate. I've poked around trying to find some numbers for NY city but nothing yet.

On a very anecdotal level, I know someone who owns a funeral home. Caters to the Bronx and Westchester County. He recently texted me what he calls his worksheet. It was three pages long. He explained to me it is never more than one page in normal times. Btw he is not making more money. There are more cremations, very small funerals (as mandated by the state). So more business but less $$ per funeral. No one is paying for an expensive casket.
 
Last edited:
Metaphysicist said:
Sturg, I gave a very direct takedown of this dude's credibility. Your response was "I don't care. He seems smart." I'm not going literally go through every dumb thing this guys posts.
.
Click to expand...

I literally follow the guy for his daily updates on hospitalization.

Your 'takedown' was of a specific thing he got wrong on an assumption a couple weeks ago. You are using that to discredit everything he has said since.

That's your right. But it doesnt make you right.

Youve dismissed a couple of my posts as conspiratorial but you have failed to tell me why or how.

I do not have an apocalyptic view of this crisis. I think its bad... really bad. I think it could have been worse had we not intervened. I also think the intervention has longer term consequences I fear will be worse than the virus

If that makes me crazy or stupid or ignorant or whatever insult you wanna hurl, then fine.
 
Metaphysicist said:
- Overall death rates for COVID/Pneumonia-associated deaths are down across the country. For the US deaths over last week were ~83% of where they normally are, presumably at least in part due to various shutdown effects. This is true even in places with almost no COVID deaths so far. In NY, where people were actually dying, overall deaths were 119% of normal. So while the rest of the nation is down maybe 20%, the place where the COVID deaths are is actually up by 20%. .
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting this
 
According to my wife, who is a doctor currently in New York, the cause of death is determined by the attending doctor.

According to my wife, their hospital is reporting all fatalities with covid as part of the daily death count, despite acknowledging that all fatalities are not being caused from the illness itself (doesnt have insight to.how many... she suspects small amount)

Note - she is a doom and gloomer.
 
As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That’s an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday.

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-nu...ls-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

The writing is not crystal clear, but my understanding is that from Monday March 30 to Monday April 6, an average of 200 New Yorkers died at home each day, compared to 20-25 per day prior to the pandemic. So for that one week about 1,250 more New Yorkers were dying at home than is the norm.
 
Statistics from the Fire Department, which runs EMS, confirm a staggering rise in deaths occurring at the scene before first responders can transport a person to a hospital for care.

The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.)

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-nu...ls-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths
 
sturg33 said:
According to my wife, who is a doctor currently in New York, the cause of death is determined by the attending doctor.

According to my wife, their hospital is reporting all fatalities with covid as part of the daily death count, despite acknowledging that all fatalities are not being caused from the illness itself (doesnt have insight to.how many... she suspects small amount)

Note - she is a doom and gloomer.
Click to expand...

How small would the "error" amount have to be to matter the actual relevant decision to suppress? Even if were 1 in 10, that would literally not change the decision. Like, if the bad projection was 1.8M instead of 2M, and we avoided that by choosing suppression, where the results were overreported at 30K instead of 27k, how in the world does that matter? Even if it were 1 in 5, how would that change in anything? Even if it were literally every other death, that would mean we went from 1M to 15k.

Please explain this to me. This is the part I don't get.
 
I also just want to put on the record that my favorite plot arc of this season is thethe's shift from:

1) We are counting COVID deaths as something else, that's why the math is wrong

to

2) We are counting something else as COVID deaths, that's why the math is wrong.

Life comes at you fast.
 
Metaphysicist said:
How small would the "error" amount have to be to matter the actual relevant decision to suppress? Even if were 1 in 10, that would literally not change the decision. Like, if the bad projection was 1.8M instead of 2M, and we avoided that by choosing suppression, where the results were overreported at 30K instead of 27k, how in the world does that matter? Even if it were 1 in 5, how would that change in anything? Even if it were literally every other death, that would mean we went from 1M to 15k.

Please explain this to me. This is the part I don't get.
Click to expand...

You are right in that it it doesnt change the overall direction or spirit of the crisis.

Its merely pointing out we may be over counting it's true impact. Is that important? Probably not. But pointing it out is not conspiratorial.
 
It's conspiratorial if it constantly blown out of proportion as some sort of critical issue and used (as done by Bergeson and thethe) to claim the larger decisions are wrong, hospital are actively trying to deceive you, and the media is lying to cover up their mistakes. If you never get there, then great.

But if you feed yourself garbage all day long, then eventually you are part garbage. That's essentially what you think about libs and the lib media. I urge you to be equally cautious about your own media intake.
 
Metaphysicist said:
It's conspiratorial if it constantly blown out of proportion as some sort of critical issue and used (as done by Bergeson and thethe) to claim the larger decisions are wrong, hospital are actively trying to deceive you, and the media is lying to cover up their mistakes. If you never get there, then great.

But if you feed yourself garbage all day long, then eventually you are part garbage. That's essentially what you think about libs and the lib media. I urge you to be equally cautious about your own media intake.
Click to expand...

The majority of people I follow (and also trust and respect) follow along the consensus of "stay at home"

Berenson and a couple others provide an alternative take on the data. I think that's healthy to follow all rather than just fall into a consensus trap.

Berenson's daily data is solid and underrepresented elsewhere. That has value in my mind.
 
Metaphysicist said:
I also just want to put on the record that my favorite plot arc of this season is thethe's shift from:

1) We are counting COVID deaths as something else, that's why the math is wrong

to

2) We are counting something else as COVID deaths, that's why the math is wrong.

Life comes at you fast.
Click to expand...


I'm not able to post as much lately, but I was literally about to call thethe out on this same crap.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top