The Coronavirus, not the beer

nsacpi said:
Interesting to read the guidance on WebMD for people with active tuberculosis:

While you’re being treated, you’ll need to stay home – no work, no school, no visiting friends. That’s the best way to avoid infecting others with the TB bacteria. Separate yourself from your family or roommates. Always use a tissue when you cough or sneeze, and then throw it away in a closed plastic bag. Air out your room whenever possible, because it’s easier for the bacteria to breed in small, enclosed spaces that lack fresh air.

A few weeks into your treatment, you should start to feel better, and your doctor may let you know that you’re no longer infectious. That’s when you can return to work, school, and a regular social life.
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Seems irresponsible. We should shut down society in order to make sure TB doesnt spread
 
sturg33 said:
Seems irresponsible. We should shut down society in order to make sure TB doesnt spread
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There is a vaccine for TB. So the comparison is not an exact one.

A fast moving disease like COVID does call for a more aggressive approach in terms of testing, tracing and quarantining. I think that is the right way to balance the need for re-opening the economy with the need to hold down transmission of the virus. If we try to re-open without the right precautions in place, it will turn out to be counterproductive both from an economic and public health perspective.

Once there is a vaccine or high level of herd immunity it can be treated more like TB.
 
sturg33 said:
Always

Trust

The

Experts!!!!

[Tw]1249140161788641280[/tw]
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Uh, avian flu is incredibly deadly... like 60% of people who get it die. But it currently doesn't spread human-to-human, only bird-to-human. This is a prediction for if it mutated and become a human-spread pandemic. Ferguson is making a prediction if for if that happened; it hasn't yet (and hopefully never will). This is just basic reading comprehension.

Seriously, you are turning into a complete moron over this.

You, sturg, an intellectual: "LEFTISTS ALWAYS EAT UP LIES FROM THE MEDIA, YOU SHEEPLE ARE SO GULLIBLE"

*pause*

You, sturg, an intellectual: "I REPEAT GARBAGE INFO THAT CAN BE FACT CHECKED IN 7 SECONDS BECAUSE IT FITS MY NARRATIVE DUUUURRR"
 
Metaphysicist said:
Uh, avian flu is incredibly deadly... like 60% of people who get it die. But it currently doesn't spread human-to-human, only bird-to-human. This is a prediction for if it mutated and become a human-spread pandemic. Ferguson is making a prediction if for if that happened; it hasn't yet (and hopefully never will). This is just basic reading comprehension.

Seriously, you are turning into a complete moron over this.

You, sturg, an intellectual: "LEFTISTS ALWAYS EAT UP LIES FROM THE MEDIA, YOU SHEEPLE ARE SO GULLIBLE"

*pause*

You, sturg, an intellectual: "I REPEAT GARBAGE INFO THAT CAN BE FACT CHECKED IN 7 SECONDS BECAUSE IT FITS MY NARRATIVE DUUUURRR"
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So up to 200 million will die?

Not sure how I'm the one who should be mocked here.

He was wrong.

It's ok to admit it. He was wrong
 
sturg33 said:
So what does that look like in practice?
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devil is always in the details

but two types of testing: one for antibodies to determine who can work in public-facing jobs without being at risk of being infected or of infecting other people, and one for the virus to determine who needs to be in quarantine....and to control any new outbreaks a small or not-so-small army to trace contacts of those found to be infected
 
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Metaphysicist said:
Uh, avian flu is incredibly deadly... like 60% of people who get it die. But it currently doesn't spread human-to-human, only bird-to-human. This is a prediction for if it mutated and become a human-spread pandemic. Ferguson is making a prediction if for if that happened; it hasn't yet (and hopefully never will). This is just basic reading comprehension.

Seriously, you are turning into a complete moron over this.

You, sturg, an intellectual: "LEFTISTS ALWAYS EAT UP LIES FROM THE MEDIA, YOU SHEEPLE ARE SO GULLIBLE"

*pause*

You, sturg, an intellectual: "I REPEAT GARBAGE INFO THAT CAN BE FACT CHECKED IN 7 SECONDS BECAUSE IT FITS MY NARRATIVE DUUUURRR"
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It seems clear to me this is a conditional prediction or speculation about a worst case scenario.

For an example of an unconditional prediction that at least so far has not come to pass I would submit the following:

San Jose, CA – March 12, 2011 – Amid speculation of a third bid for the Presidency, Congressman Ron Paul revealed that growing concerns over U.S. monetary policies would drive him into the race. In a no-holds-barred interview on KSCO AM 1080 with the host of The Costa Report, Rebecca Costa, Paul said, "I think the wave of the future is inflation. It's just beginning – to the point that the dollar will be rejected as the reserve currency of the world. If there's a panic out of the dollar you will see the destruction of the dollar rather quickly. The end stages of a currency comes quickly."

But I would not hold Ron Paul to the same standards I would hold a serious scholar such as Professor Ferguson. He is more of a crackpot who says all sorts of silly things.
 
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nsacpi said:
devil is always in the details

but two types of testing: one for antibodies to determine who can work in public-facing jobs without being at risk of being infected or of infecting other people, and one for the virus to determine who needs to be in quarantine....and to control any new outbreaks a small or not-so-small army to trace contacts of those found to be infected
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Right.

But what does that look like in practice?

How do we execute this plan? State troopers? Hospitals? In home? What do you have in mind?
 
Metaphysicist said:
About what? He says "If A, potentially B as a worst case." A never happens. Sturg says "WUT A MAROON."
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Is this what makes someone really smart?

If (super unlikely) thing happens, then (super unlikely) catastrophe happens.

Wow!

Like I said, if our antibodies stop working, the cold gonna go nuts on us
 
sturg33 said:
Is this what makes someone really smart?

If (super unlikely) thing happens, then (super unlikely) catastrophe happens.

Wow!

Like I said, if our antibodies stop working, the cold gonna go nuts on us
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Lol, please detail to me your thought on the likelihood of flu strain mutations.

I'll take this as an admission that you realize that link was stupid.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Lol, please detail to me your thought on the likelihood of flu strain mutations.

I'll take this as an admission that you realize that link was stupid.
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Dude. I like you and think you're smart. But dont act like some stupid doom and gloom prediction is valid assuming (8,000 things go wrong) is some sort of scientific genius.

To throw out a number like that is one of two things: 1. Fear mongering, 2. Stupidity by assuming an impossible likelihood could happen

Like I said, anyone can throw out stupid predictions that are always.gonna be wrong that can be explained away with "well catastrophe didnt happen!"
 
sturg33 said:
Dude. I like you and think you're smart. But dont act like some stupid doom and gloom prediction is valid assuming (8,000 things go wrong) is some sort of scientific genius.

To throw out a number like that is one of two things: 1. Fear mongering, 2. Stupidity by assuming an impossible likelihood could happen

Like I said, anyone can throw out stupid predictions that are always.gonna be wrong that can be explained away with "well catastrophe didnt happen!"
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This is just such a bizarre take. Your criticism is based on the avian flu mutating to human-to-human transmission (that's one thing, not 8000 things) being a crazy impossibility. But you are wrong.

Literally all these outbreaks do exactly that. The Spanish Flu likely came from birds and maybe killed 100 million. This current thing came from bats or whatever. The swine flu came from, you guessed it, swine, but luckily wasn't that deadly. Ebola came from a bat probably. AIDS came from monkey ****ing or whatever. The avian flu strain in question is already transmittable to humans, just not human-to-human, and has killed 60% of people who've had it.

What possible reason is there to be mad that epidemiologists are modeling what happens if it makes that jump, like other similar viruses have? We should be prepared in case that happens! That's just common sense!

This isn't even skepticism. This is just denial and confirmation bias on your part. You believe "experts" are trying to trick you and read everything in that way. It's crazy.
 
Metaphysicist said:
This is just such a bizarre take. Your criticism is based on the avian flu mutating to human-to-human transmission (that's one thing, not 8000 things) being a crazy impossibility. But you are wrong.

Literally all these outbreaks do exactly that. The Spanish Flu likely came from birds and maybe killed 100 million. This current thing came from bats or whatever. The swine flu came from, you guessed it, swine, but luckily wasn't that deadly. Ebola came from a bat probably. AIDS came from monkey ****ing or whatever. The avian flu strain in question is already transmittable to humans, just not human-to-human, and has killed 60% of people who've had it.

What possible reason is there to be mad that epidemiologists are modeling what happens if it makes that jump, like other similar viruses have? We should be prepared in case that happens! That's just common sense!

This isn't even skepticism. This is just denial and confirmation bias on your part. You believe "experts" are trying to trick you and read everything in that way. It's crazy.
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Honestly curious about this guys predictions on each new illness.

Do you have those numbers?
 
sturg33 said:
Honestly curious about this guys predictions on each new illness.

Do you have those numbers?
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Here's an article re: swine flu. He said it would spread, but it would work more like (and have the fatality rate of) the seasonal flu rather than be something super deadly like the Spanish flu ended up or the Avian flu could be. With the caveat being this was a new strain so the lack of immunity meant more people might get it overall. Seems pretty dead on, so far as I can see.

An early analysis of the H1N1 swine-associated flu virus outbreak suggests that the virus spreads at a rate comparable to that of previous influenza pandemics.

The results, published online today by Science and compiled by the World Health Organization Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration, support the designation of swine flu as a pandemic but also indicate that the fatality rates thus far are lower than those seen during the 1918 flu outbreak or those anticipated from an avian influenza pandemic.

Exposure to other H1N1 strains may mean people are more resistant to the current swine-associated strain.

"It's a virus that almost certainly will cause a global epidemic," says study author Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London. "But it's not the catastrophic scenario people were fearing for bird flu."

...

By plugging early data into statistical models, Ferguson and his collaborators determined that 6,000–32,000 individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April. The team also used epidemiological data and information about the virus' genetic diversity to determine that the swine flu virus has a basic reproductive rate — a number that takes into account how easily the virus spreads within a population — of 1.2–1.6. Seasonal flu typically hovers around 1.2, whereas the second, more severe wave of the 1918 flu reached about 2.
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Daily death count in NY state:

3/25 75
3/26 100
3/27 134
3/28 209
3/29 237
3/30 253
3/31 332
4/1 391
4/2 432
4/3 563
4/4 630
4/5 594
4/6 599
4/7 731
4/8 779
4/9 799
4/10 ?
4/11 783

For the United States

3/25 225
3/26 253
3/27 433
3/28 447
3/29 392
3/30 554
3/31 821
4/1 940
4/2 1,075
4/3 1,186
4/4 1,352
4/5 1,175
4/6 1,212
4/7 1,928
4/8 1,936
4/9 1,856
4/10 2,035
4/11 1,830
 
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