The Coronavirus, not the beer

[Carp]

Fauchi in 4/12:

We were in real trouble the middle to end of January.


You can't make this **** up.

You literally have blasted CCP for their disinformation anf the WHO for being inept. In January, the ONLY information we had to go on was from coming from China and the WHO.

Moving the goalposts indeed. Why am I not shocked that you have turned your attention to Fauci when it contradicts the Don's company line?

 

[Carp]

Its important to know the record before the media blames Trump for every single CCP virus death.

Eveyrone wanted him to listen to experts. Everyone loves Fauchi. Well Trump did exactly that.

No, he didn't. We have explicit proof Trump disregarded medical experts advice.

 

[thethe]

You literally have blasted CCP for their disinformation anf the WHO for being inept. In January, the ONLY information we had to go on was from coming from China and the WHO.

Moving the goalposts indeed. Why am I not shocked that you have turned your attention to Fauci when it contradicts the Don's company line?

I'm not criticizing fauchi for his stances in jan and feb.

I'm confused why he is pretending that his position all along was one of concern.

I mean, he was one of the people that was against the china travel ban and later in tried to take credit as if he was the architect.

 

[thethe]

No, he didn't. We have explicit proof Trump disregarded medical experts advice.

His main person saidnnothing to fear at the end of feb. Despite that he banned travel from hotspots.

So based on where fauchi was at the end of february what did trump do that went against the medical experts?

 

[Dalyn]

They closed early so more uninfected people existed when lockdown was removed. That's why a sharp second wave is happening

What is happening there is exactly what the actual experts said would happen if/when lockdown is lifted before a vaccine. They literally said you could be open for about a month before you would need to go on lockdown again. Even if you were 100% right, we would run into the same problem in many places throughout the United States. I have been watching/reading a ton about this from all sides, and reading this thread and your responses...you basically parrot the right-wing answers on everything. Both sides have their agenda, and you're not going to get to the truth by only paying attention and believing one side, and that is truly what it appears like you're doing here. The virus is not political, you know. There are people who actually know how this **** works, and they are talking and writing and yelling about it, and here in the United States we have a large portion of the populace ignoring all of that and tuning in to Trump and friends to get the "truth."

 

[nsacpi]

As of a couple days ago, deaths per million were:

FINLAND 9
Denmark 47
Sweden 90

 

[thethe]

What is happening there is exactly what the actual experts said would happen if/when lockdown is lifted before a vaccine. They literally said you could be open for about a month before you would need to go on lockdown again. Even if you were 100% right, we would run into the same problem in many places throughout the United States. I have been watching/reading a ton about this from all sides, and reading this thread and your responses...you basically parrot the right-wing answers on everything. Both sides have their agenda, and you're not going to get to the truth by only paying attention and believing one side, and that is truly what it appears like you're doing here. The virus is not political, you know. There are people who actually know how this **** works, and they are talking and writing and yelling about it, and here in the United States we have a large portion of the populace ignoring all of that and tuning in to Trump and friends to get the "truth."

The people that knew how this worked created the models that were off by magnitudes of 10 in some instances right? My 'hunches', or right wing conspiracies which are referenced alot, led me to believe on march 24th that we would see only 100-200k deaths. Apparenlty I wasn't bullish enough. This is strictly a mathematical problem here but the wrong assumptions have been used from the beginning.

Lets ignore that for now. I don't care about right wing because there is plenty like Wilt Chamberlin who don't want to re-open.

This is data based. If you closed early it means you didn't expose your population that much to the virus. Naturally that leads to the conclusion you have almost an empty slate population where the virus can jump on to new hosts. A lot of scientists say that once you get to 50% infection you have effectively achieved herd immunity. In a place like NY where you could argue we have reached 50% already then re-opening will not allow a rapid spread and that the hospitals can manage much easier than they did the past 3 weeks.

 

[thethe]

As of a couple days ago, deaths per million were:

FINLAND 9
Denmark 47
Sweden 90

I'd love to know what their uninfected population percentages look like. Then I'd like to see how many times Finalnd/Denmark will need to re-close their economy then some sort of analysis on the economic costs of that

 

[nsacpi]

I'd love to know what their uninfected population percentages look like. Then I'd like to see how many times Finalnd/Denmark will need to re-close their economy then some sort of analysis on the economic costs of that

Those are good questions. The Nordic Saga is far from over. We will see. But the results, in terms of fatalities, are not favorable for Sweden so far.

But I am willing to put my chips on FINLAND. They will have the best outcomes, both from a health perspective and an economic perspective.

I also predict we will see that there is not a big tradeoff between the health outcomes and the economic outcomes. Once this is over and we do a scatter plot of economic losses versus loss of life there is not going to be some sort of clear correlation indicating there is a tradeoff between the two.

 

[Carp]

[Tw]1249721766026641409[/tw]

The sweden ****ed up crowd doesnt have as much firepower anymore.

I mean they have 4 times as many deaths as their neighbors (and per capita, over double the amount of Denmark). Their strategy isn't necessarily about herd immunity as much as it is not having to deal with a 2nd outbreak when society reopens (like other countries will have to maneuver). And that seems fairly dangerous considering we aren't 100 percent certain that reinfection can't happen or if the virus mutates. We'll see how it goes.

 

[thethe]

Those are good questions. The Nordic Saga is far from over. We will see. But the results, in terms of fatalities, are not favorable for Sweden so far.

But I am willing to put my chips on FINLAND. They will have the best outcomes, both from a health perspective and an economic perspective.

I also predict we will see that there is not a big tradeoff between the health outcomes and the economic outcomes. Once this is over and we do a scatter plot of economic losses versus loss of life there is not going to be some sort of clear correlation indicating there is a tradeoff between the two.

I could see that at a certain point both economies get to where they were. For me it will be the delta in that timeframe between those countries and what it does to the populace

In addition, what type of mental strain is put on a population with a stop / restart / stop / etc...?

 

[thethe]

I mean they have 4 times as many deaths as their neighbors (and per capita, over double the amount of Denmark). Their strategy isn't necessarily about herd immunity as much as it is not having to deal with a 2nd outbreak when society reopens (like other countries will have to maneuver). And that seems fairly dangerous considering we aren't 100 percent certain that reinfection can't happen or if the virus mutates. We'll see how it goes.

The only way to avoid secondary/teritiary outbreaks is to have a larger percentage of the population gain immunity. I know it hasn't been confirmed that reinfection is impossible but there is very little reason to think otherwise. THe data coming out of SK is not conclusive because of faulty testing and timeframe when there was a reanimation of the virus within the host.

 

[nsacpi]

I mean they have 4 times as many deaths as their neighbors (and per capita, over double the amount of Denmark). Their strategy isn't necessarily about herd immunity as much as it is not having to deal with a 2nd outbreak when society reopens (like other countries will have to maneuver). And that seems fairly dangerous considering we aren't 100 percent certain that reinfection can't happen or if the virus mutates. We'll see how it goes.

The other thing to observe is that even in countries and states where the government has not taken a strong stance on things like closing non-essential business or having people stay at home, there has been a lot of social distancing that has arisen from the spontaneous behavior of the population. One of the things to watch in coming weeks as countries reopen is the extent to which this spontaneous behavior changes.

 

[Carp]

The people that knew how this worked created the models that were off by magnitudes of 10 in some instances right? My 'hunches', or right wing conspiracies which are referenced alot, led me to believe on march 24th that we would see only 100-200k deaths. Apparenlty I wasn't bullish enough. This is strictly a mathematical problem here but the wrong assumptions have been used from the beginning.

Lets ignore that for now. I don't care about right wing because there is plenty like Wilt Chamberlin who don't want to re-open.

This is data based. If you closed early it means you didn't expose your population that much to the virus. Naturally that leads to the conclusion you have almost an empty slate population where the virus can jump on to new hosts. A lot of scientists say that once you get to 50% infection you have effectively achieved herd immunity. In a place like NY where you could argue we have reached 50% already then re-opening will not allow a rapid spread and that the hospitals can manage much easier than they did the past 3 weeks.

Pics or it didn't happen.

The debate was death rate and how many deaths we could see if 1/3 of the population eventually got infected (I don't recall a specific date being mentioned). Obviously, the less amount of people that contract the virus will reduce the amount of total deaths. That has zero to do with death rate. NYC is already approaching your magic # of .1 % of the cities TOTAL population in deaths. Sadly, they'll be there by Wednesday it appears. At what point will you admit you were wrong? When the death toll reaches 15k? 20k?

 

[Carp]

The other thing to observe is that even in countries and states where the government has not taken a strong stance on things like closing non-essential business or having people stay at home, there has been a lot of social distancing that has arisen from the spontaneous behavior of the population. One of the things to watch in coming weeks as countries reopen is the extent to which this spontaneous behavior changes.

This is true. Just because Sweden hasn't gone to to drastic measures doesn't mean they haven't taken measures to reduce infection.

 

[thethe]

Pics or it didn't happen.

The debate was death rate and how many deaths we could see if 1/3 of the population eventually got infected (I don't recall a specific date being mentioned). NYC is already approaching your magic # of .1 % of the cities TOTAL population in deaths. Sadly, they'll be there by Wednesday it appears. At what point will you admit you were wrong? When the death toll reaches 15k? 20k?

So I may have been off by one tenth of a percent. I'm an awful person.

It was clear for a while this was not as deadly as it was made out to be. This isn't revisionist history for me because I've been beating this drum for a long time. I may end up being wrong but I didn't wait till it was obvious to hold this position.

 

[Carp]

Even if you liberally and without any sort of proof, assume 50 percent of NYC currently has the virus, you're looking at a death rate that will likely be at .2 percent by Wednesday.

 

[cajunrevenge]

 

[Carp]

So I may have been off by one tenth of a percent. I'm an awful person.

It was clear for a while this was not as deadly as it was made out to be. This isn't revisionist history for me because I've been beating this drum for a long time. I may end up being wrong but I didn't wait till it was obvious to hold this position.

I originally stated the death rate is around 1 percent and have even stated it could be as low as .5 percent. It doubt very much it is lower than that. I'd love to be wrong.

 

[thethe]

I originally stated the death rate is around 1 percent and have even stated it could be as low as .5 percent. It doubt very much it is lower than that. I'd love to be wrong.

I'd love to be right.