sturg33
I
Still waiting on what the end game here is
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Still waiting on what the end game here is
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm not sure what the logic is. Certainly kids are at very low risk. But schools were not closed to protect them. That's not how I understand it. Low risk people like kids can still contribute to the pandemic by spreading it to older at risk groups. That's why they too have to observe social distancing and try to avoid becoming contagious.
Otoh people with antibodies are a different matter. Presumably they are no longer possible vectors. Which is one of the reasons why testing for antibodies is important.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
So more than half the country is at risk, but that's not enough for you. Interesting.
Fear is the plan
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
i have certainly advocated for more testing and for random testing...thanks for engaging in your characteristic bad faith misrepresentation of other people's views
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sturg33
I
Lol funny thing is I wasnt being snarky.
Isn't that your plan. Test, trace, quarantine?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
you were just being yourself
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
NY city solved its hospitalization crisis by admitting a smaller fraction of the people close to death. That's how it solved the crisis. This is also known as being overwhelmed.
sturg33
I
What is your plan to end the national house arrest?
There were a handful of hospitals that were overwhelmed based on a completely clean population in the most dense area of the world.
It will never happen again or even close to it and the hospital system survived just fine. Nobody was refused care that needed it.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Once the spread is actually under control, once we have better prevalence data, and once you are prepared to do something like contact tracing, etc. you can start rolling back some restrictions. And you probably need to begin prepping for a resurgence. Or something like that. I dunno, I don't have a MPH or whatever. The actual phased approach put out by the Trump Administration is not bonkers in premise; the issue is starting too soon.
Every time your moron friends go about and rub butts together on the capitol steps, it possibly pushes that first step back in time.
The broad strokes are not rocket science, no matter how many times you act like the question is unanswerable.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
1) more testing
2) an army of tracers
3) quarantine people who test positive, make sure their contacts get tested
Here are a couple articles describing how Germany is doing it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/...odies-germany-seeks-path-out-of-lockdown.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/world/europe/coronavirus-germany-merkel.html
They are testing twice as much as we are per capita.
Here is another article discussing how much testing we might need.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html
People who are experts are looking hard at these kinds of questions. Universal testing every week is not feasible. No one is advocating that. But more testing. Sure. We need about three times as much testing as we are currently conducting. I would settle for twice as much. And obviously the prevalence of testing will vary across different parts of the country depending on conditions.
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Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Like the numbers of new cases and the number of people dying are consistently and clearly declining over an extended period of time. If you get R0 well below 1 for a number of cycles, you can drastically reduce the overall spread of the virus. Exponential growth works both ways.