The Coronavirus, not the beer

Like the numbers of new cases and the number of people dying are consistently and clearly declining over an extended period of time. If you get R0 well below 1 for a number of cycles, you can drastically reduce the overall spread of the virus. Exponential growth works both ways.

This is one of the under-discussed things. It is very risky reopening with an R naught of 0.9. But get it down to 0.5 and you definitely want to do it.
 
Like the numbers of new cases and the number of people dying are consistently and clearly declining over an extended period of time. If you get R0 well below 1 for a number of cycles, you can drastically reduce the overall spread of the virus. Exponential growth works both ways.

Why doesnt the virus start rapidly spreading again?
 
Why doesnt the virus start rapidly spreading again?

The point is to get the current spread low enough that the containment measures (contact tracing, quarantine, whatever) are practical when we do see new cases. That should reduce the rate of spread. Hopefully.
 
Does anyone have a plan on ending this?

Nsacpi keeps saying to test everyone but hasn't offered a practical way of doing so.

The risk doesnt just go away in a couple months, right?

It may seem like kicking the can down the road, but one of the main advantages of this is buying time to gather more information and conduct trials to find the best treatment. If tomorrow we find a viable treatment for it, we will have saved 10's of thousands of lives over the last month.
 
He was a Fox News watcher who didn't think COVID-19 was a real thing. His kids did, warning him not to take an upcoming cruise. He went anyway. Weeks later, he died from the virus:

“He watched Fox, and believed it was under control,’’ Kristen told me.

When her father began to feel sick, he resisted getting tested. “He didn’t think that he could have it,” Kristen said, “because he wasn’t 100 percent confident that it was a thing.”

Early in March Sean Hannity went on air proclaiming that he didn’t like the way that the American people were getting scared “unnecessarily.’’ He saw it all, he said, “as like, let’s bludgeon Trump with this new hoax.”

Eventually, Fox changed course and took the virus more seriously, but the Joyces were long gone by then. On March 14, they returned to New York from Barcelona, and the next day, before bars and restaurants were forced to close in the city, Joe Joyce went to work at JJ Bubbles for the last time.

On April 9, he died of Covid-19. The following day, Artie Nelson, one of his longtime bartenders at JJ Bubbles, and also in his 70s, died of the virus as well.

But there was a way he might have avoided the trip, his daughter speculated. “If Trump had gone on TV with a mask on and said, ‘Hey this is serious,’ I don’t think he would have gone.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/nyregion/coronavirus-jjbubbles-joe-joyce.html
 
He was a Fox News watcher who didn't think COVID-19 was a real thing. His kids did, warning him not to take an upcoming cruise. He went anyway. Weeks later, he died from the virus:

“He watched Fox, and believed it was under control,’’ Kristen told me.

This is not a new phenomenon. There is a paper titled "Red State, Blue State, Flu State" that looks in a comprehensive way at how media self-selection predicted rates of swine flu vaccination.
 
There were a handful of hospitals that were overwhelmed based on a completely clean population in the most dense area of the world.

It will never happen again or even close to it and the hospital system survived just fine. Nobody was refused care that needed it.

Tapate has already mentioned the strain happening in Albany, GA. Chelsea saw a strain on their health system. Heavy hit towns and communities are going to see strains on their health systems.
 
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naïveté

preferred version with i umlaut and e accent aigu

that's the word to describe poorly chosen one's interactions with Xi and China during this
pandemic...and the Dem's if they are smart will pound that home every single day until November 3

it seems to me that we (and the rest of the world) should be demanding China's cooperation in an international investigation of its handling of the COVID19 outbreak in Wuhan...why hasn't this happened
 
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naïveté

preferred version with i umlaut and e accent aigu

that's the word to describe poorly chosen one's interactions with Xi and China during this pandemic...and the Dem's if they are smart will pound that home every single day until November 3

Have a feeling Trump won't say much bad directly to China because he doesn't wanna ruin Phase 63 of the trade deal.
 
Gonna be 40k deaths by tomorrow.

Still don't see how social distancing and mitigation shutdowns was a waste of time. Just not seeing how thethe gets his math that it wouldn't have been anywhere worse if we states didn't execute shelter at home orders.

We would certainly be well around 150k deaths by now.
 
Mitigate at risk.

Its absurd to ask those at virtually no risk to quarantine.

I have a slightly different take on this. If I get sick and die of this thing (and yes I have one of the pre-conditions that puts me at risk), the mostly likely avenue for my catching it is my teenage son. So until we have better visibility into its course, I'd rather my son continue to quarantine.
 
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Malaria drugs fail to help coronavirus patients in controlled studies

The malaria drugs touted by President Donald Trump as potentially “the biggest game changers in the history of medicine” have received a decidedly more sober assessment of their coronavirus-fighting potential from researchers in China, France and Brazil.

Chloroquine and its close relative hydroxychloroquine offered signs that they may ease some of the hallmark symptoms of coronavirus infection in patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19. But the drugs largely failed to deliver improvements on other key measures when evaluated in rigorous research studies.

In research done in France, hydroxychloroquine reduced neither deaths nor admissions to intensive care units among patients who received it. In a study conducted in China and another in Brazil, the two drugs failed to help patients clear the coronavirus faster.

And in Brazil, two deaths and a rash of heart troubles among patients who got a high dose of chloroquine prompted a hasty alteration of the trial there after just 13 days. Concluding that “enough red flags” had been raised, the researchers halted testing of the drug in its extra-strength form.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...us-patients-in-controlled-studies/ar-BB12O60W
 
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