The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
[tw]1252930461715836928[/tw]
What we are learning from these antibodies studies are two things:
1) The number of people infected in 5-10 times as high as the cases in areas that have had a fair amount of testing
2) The implied IFR is around 0.5% or slightly higher (consistent with deaths in NY state assuming about 20% of the population has been infected).
What we are learning from these antibodies studies are two things:
1) The number of people infected in 5-10 times as high as the cases in areas that have had a fair amount of testing
2) The implied IFR is around 0.5% or slightly higher (consistent with deaths in NY state assuming about 20% of the population has been infected).
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
[tw]1252934017357414400[/tw]
The author of the above tweet makes two obvious points but they are worth repeating given the discussion around here.
it is a fantasy to think we are anywhere near herd immunity other than in the most extremely hard hit areas and COVID-19 is much worse (at least five times as deadly and maybe more than 10 times as deadly) as the flu...plus of course no vaccine or known treatments yet
The author of the above tweet makes two obvious points but they are worth repeating given the discussion around here.
it is a fantasy to think we are anywhere near herd immunity other than in the most extremely hard hit areas and COVID-19 is much worse (at least five times as deadly and maybe more than 10 times as deadly) as the flu...plus of course no vaccine or known treatments yet
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Well we finally solved school shootings.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
One month ago, as the country went into lockdown to prepare for the first wave of coronavirus cases, many doctors felt confident they knew what they were dealing with. Based on early reports, covid-19 appeared to be a standard variety respiratory virus, albeit a contagious and lethal one with no vaccine and no treatment. But they’ve since become increasingly convinced covid-19 attacks not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, heart, intestines, liver and brain.
Many doctors also are reporting bizarre, unsettling cases that don’t seem to follow the textbooks they’ve trained on. They describe patients with startlingly low oxygen levels — so low that they would normally be unconscious or near death — talking and swiping on their phones. Asymptomatic pregnant women suddenly in cardiac arrest. Patients who by all conventional measures seem to have mild disease deteriorating within minutes and dying at home.
With no clear patterns in terms of age or chronic conditions, some scientists hypothesize that at least some of these abnormalities may be explained by severe changes in patients’ blood.
The concern is so acute some doctor groups have raised the controversial possibility of giving preventive blood thinners to everyone with covid-19 — even those well enough to endure their illness at home.
Blood clots, in which the red liquid turns gel-like, appear to be the opposite of what occurs in Ebola, Dengue, Lassa and other hemorrhagic fevers that lead to uncontrolled bleeding. But they actually are part of the same phenomenon — and can have similarly devastating consequences.
Autopsies have shown some people’s lungs fill with hundreds of microclots. Errant blood clots of a larger size can break off and travel to the brain or heart, causing a stroke or heart attack. On Saturday, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, 41, had his right leg amputated after being infected with the novel coronavirus and suffering from clots that blocked blood from getting to his toes.
Lewis Kaplan, a University of Pennsylvania physician and head of the Society of Critical Care Medicine, said every year doctors treat people with clotting complications, from those with cancer to victims of severe trauma, “and they don’t clot like this.”
“The problem we are having is that while we understand that there is a clot, we don’t yet understand why there is a clot,” Kaplan said. “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.”
In hindsight, there were hints blood problems had been an issue in China and Italy as well, but it was more of a footnote in studies and on information-sharing calls that focused on the disease’s effects on lungs.
“It crept up on us. We weren’t hearing a tremendous amount about this internationally,” said Greg Piazza, a cardiovascular specialist at Brigham and Women’s who has begun a study of bleeding complications of covid-19.
Helen W. Boucher, an infectious-disease specialist at Tufts Medical Center, said there’s no reason to think anything is different about the virus in the United States. More likely, she said, the problem was more obvious to American doctors because of the unique demographics of U.S. patients, including large percentages with heart disease and obesity that make them more vulnerable to the ravages of blood clots. She also noted small but important differences in the monitoring and treatment of patients in ICUs in this country that would make clots easier to detect.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/
Many doctors also are reporting bizarre, unsettling cases that don’t seem to follow the textbooks they’ve trained on. They describe patients with startlingly low oxygen levels — so low that they would normally be unconscious or near death — talking and swiping on their phones. Asymptomatic pregnant women suddenly in cardiac arrest. Patients who by all conventional measures seem to have mild disease deteriorating within minutes and dying at home.
With no clear patterns in terms of age or chronic conditions, some scientists hypothesize that at least some of these abnormalities may be explained by severe changes in patients’ blood.
The concern is so acute some doctor groups have raised the controversial possibility of giving preventive blood thinners to everyone with covid-19 — even those well enough to endure their illness at home.
Blood clots, in which the red liquid turns gel-like, appear to be the opposite of what occurs in Ebola, Dengue, Lassa and other hemorrhagic fevers that lead to uncontrolled bleeding. But they actually are part of the same phenomenon — and can have similarly devastating consequences.
Autopsies have shown some people’s lungs fill with hundreds of microclots. Errant blood clots of a larger size can break off and travel to the brain or heart, causing a stroke or heart attack. On Saturday, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, 41, had his right leg amputated after being infected with the novel coronavirus and suffering from clots that blocked blood from getting to his toes.
Lewis Kaplan, a University of Pennsylvania physician and head of the Society of Critical Care Medicine, said every year doctors treat people with clotting complications, from those with cancer to victims of severe trauma, “and they don’t clot like this.”
“The problem we are having is that while we understand that there is a clot, we don’t yet understand why there is a clot,” Kaplan said. “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.”
In hindsight, there were hints blood problems had been an issue in China and Italy as well, but it was more of a footnote in studies and on information-sharing calls that focused on the disease’s effects on lungs.
“It crept up on us. We weren’t hearing a tremendous amount about this internationally,” said Greg Piazza, a cardiovascular specialist at Brigham and Women’s who has begun a study of bleeding complications of covid-19.
Helen W. Boucher, an infectious-disease specialist at Tufts Medical Center, said there’s no reason to think anything is different about the virus in the United States. More likely, she said, the problem was more obvious to American doctors because of the unique demographics of U.S. patients, including large percentages with heart disease and obesity that make them more vulnerable to the ravages of blood clots. She also noted small but important differences in the monitoring and treatment of patients in ICUs in this country that would make clots easier to detect.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
Homeschool shootings are on the rise.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
poorly chosen one's hunches have to be pursued regardless of scientific merit, cost in taxpayer dollars or lives lost
a lot of people say he has a talent...a natural talent...an ability to digest data that is astounding
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Dr. Bright, who is a career official and not a political appointee, pointed specifically to the initial efforts to make chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine widely available before it was scientifically tested for efficacy with the coronavirus.
“Specifically, and contrary to misguided directives, I limited the broad use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, promoted by the administration as a panacea, but which clearly lack scientific merit,” he said.
“While I am prepared to look at all options and to think ‘outside the box’ for effective treatments, I rightly resisted efforts to provide an unproven drug on demand to the American public,” Dr. Bright said, describing what ultimately happened: “I insisted that these drugs be provided only to hospitalized patients with confirmed Covid-19 while under the supervision of a physician.
“These drugs have potentially serious risks associated with them, including increased mortality observed in some recent studies in patients with Covid-19.
“Sidelining me in the middle of this pandemic and placing politics and cronyism ahead of science puts lives at risk and stunts national efforts to safely and effectively address this urgent public health crisis,” Dr. Bright said.
“I will request that the inspector general of the Department of Health and Human Services investigate the manner in which this administration has politicized the work of BARDA and has pressured me and other conscientious scientists to fund companies with political connections and efforts that lack scientific merit,” he said. “Rushing blindly towards unproven drugs can be disastrous and result in countless more deaths. Science, in service to the health and safety of the American people, must always trump politics.”
“Specifically, and contrary to misguided directives, I limited the broad use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, promoted by the administration as a panacea, but which clearly lack scientific merit,” he said.
“While I am prepared to look at all options and to think ‘outside the box’ for effective treatments, I rightly resisted efforts to provide an unproven drug on demand to the American public,” Dr. Bright said, describing what ultimately happened: “I insisted that these drugs be provided only to hospitalized patients with confirmed Covid-19 while under the supervision of a physician.
“These drugs have potentially serious risks associated with them, including increased mortality observed in some recent studies in patients with Covid-19.
“Sidelining me in the middle of this pandemic and placing politics and cronyism ahead of science puts lives at risk and stunts national efforts to safely and effectively address this urgent public health crisis,” Dr. Bright said.
“I will request that the inspector general of the Department of Health and Human Services investigate the manner in which this administration has politicized the work of BARDA and has pressured me and other conscientious scientists to fund companies with political connections and efforts that lack scientific merit,” he said. “Rushing blindly towards unproven drugs can be disastrous and result in countless more deaths. Science, in service to the health and safety of the American people, must always trump politics.”
Love the narrative it's about hydroxychloroquine when it's been reported that he clashed with people for well over a year regarding the scope of his role.
Media is such a joke and in the mission to find as much food to quench your TDS you suck it up like a sheep.
Media is such a joke and in the mission to find as much food to quench your TDS you suck it up like a sheep.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...r-is-trying-to-forecast-the-toll-of-covid-19/
podcast with Chris Murray of IHME model fame
podcast with Chris Murray of IHME model fame
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
[tw]1253089300629139456[/tw]
keeping in mind that poorly chosen one's default setting is disinformation, my hunch (and I insist on my right to have hunches like everyone else) is that he is trying to play it so he gets credit if it goes well and the governors like Kemp get the blame if it doesn't
keeping in mind that poorly chosen one's default setting is disinformation, my hunch (and I insist on my right to have hunches like everyone else) is that he is trying to play it so he gets credit if it goes well and the governors like Kemp get the blame if it doesn't
