The Coronavirus, not the beer

[nsacpi]

Preliminary positive for antibodies results given by Cuomo:

Long Island: 16.7%
NYC: 21.2%
Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%
Rest of state: 3.6%

 

[thethe]

Preliminary positive for antibodies results given by Cuomo:

Long Island: 16.7%
NYC: 21.2%
Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%
Rest of state: 3.6%

Less then I thought.

Still a great start for an immunity wall to stop rapid spread. No reason to stay indoors.

 

[thethe]

One thing I'd caution is that this would not include current infections as they wouldnt be shopping at supermarkets.

But this is an essential data point.

 

[thethe]

Is it true that there is a lag for antibodies to form?

That would be an interesting variable to consider when using these results

 

[Carp]

Preliminary positive for antibodies results given by Cuomo:

Long Island: 16.7%
NYC: 21.2%
Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%
Rest of state: 3.6%

20% in NYC. Whodathunkit.

 

[thethe]

20% in NYC. Whodathunkit.

Missed anyone infected withing the last 2-3 weeks so it's an understated number. Still less then I thought but we are ready to go back now.

 

[nsacpi]

Is it true that there is a lag for antibodies to form?

That would be an interesting variable to consider when using these results

There is also a lag from infection to death. We can use these data to form an estimate of the IFR for the city. Obviously, more data will come in and we can adjust as they come in.

 

[Carp]

Pretty clear the death rate is over .5%.

 

[thethe]

Pretty clear the death rate is over .5%.

Stupid analysis as usual

 

[thethe]

There is also a lag from infection to death. We can use these data to form an estimate of the IFR for the city. Obviously, more data will come in and we can adjust as they come in.

The caseload that would result in deaths would also not form antibodies in the non death population by the time this testing was done

We could make the death rate plummet if we were actually smart and followed the science.

 

[nsacpi]

Pretty clear the death rate is over .5%.

show your work young man

 

[Carp]

Stupid analysis as usual

Really? Cause if roughly 25% (being generous to you) have the virus right now, you're already looking at a confirmed death rate of .5 and growing (NYC deaths are estimated to be closer to 15k)

 

[thethe]

Really? Cause if roughly 25% (being generous to you) have the virus right now, you're already looking at a confirmed death rate of .5 and growing (NYC deaths are estimated to be closer to 15k)

Blended death rate is close to useless.

 

[nsacpi]

Blended death rate is close to useless.

what is your "unblended" number for the city and how do you come up with it

 

[Carp]

If 25% have the virus in Albany, GA, you're also looking at a death rate of over .5%.

 

[Carp]

Blended death rate is close to useless.

Lol what???

 

[thethe]

Lol what???

Do you have a .5% chance of dying if you're infected?

 

[thethe]

what is your "unblended" number for the city and how do you come up with it

Break out the that risk vs everyone else.

At risk death rate is probabaly 1-1.5

For everyone else it's basically 0.

This is the information we need.

 

[nsacpi]

Break out the that risk vs everyone else.

At risk death rate is probabaly 1-1.5

For everyone else it's basically 0.

This is the information we need.

What proportion of the new york city population is in the at risk group.

 

[Carp]

Do you have a .5% chance of dying if you're infected?

That's irrelevant to the IFR. Moving the goalposts again I see.