The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Interesting modeling update from Imperial College. They don't have US numbers, but they have a website where you can poke around for a bunch of EU countries. Pretty interesting what they think the effects of various interventions have been; note how little effect school closure apparently has:
Sweden, for example:
Eventually a lot of their assumptions will change but you'll keep silent when it proves all this idiocy wrong.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Florida Sheriff is writing tickets and sitting outside houses catching GA residents if they leave their vacation rental. Or so he says.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Because I had just read it. We must have been reading it around the same time.
one of the worst moments in American history. We will look back in this time and wonder why we so easily gave up our freedoms.
Interesting how a little police overreach is now a warcry for the right...
Remember BlueLivesMatter and they're just doin their jobs, and if you just cooperate there will be no issues. I can't wait to see Trump speak out against police officers overstepping their boundaries because he tells it like it is unfiltered.
Remember BlueLivesMatter and they're just doin their jobs, and if you just cooperate there will be no issues. I can't wait to see Trump speak out against police officers overstepping their boundaries because he tells it like it is unfiltered.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
They've been a school closing skeptic all along. But I believe this an assumption. Informed by their experience perhaps. But I dont think there are estimates of the relative effectiveness of the different interventions.Interesting modeling update from Imperial College. They don't have US numbers, but they have a website where you can poke around for a bunch of EU countries. Pretty interesting what they think the effects of various interventions have been; note how little effect school closure apparently has:
Sweden, for example:
Statistics are a useful tool and unfortunately certain groups commit crimes at a higher rate than others.
You either embrace stats or you don't.
The polling is a reflection of the message that is being sent out wouldn't you say?
Its lunacy.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I believe if you asked the people who are supportive of continued shutdowns for their explanations of why they support it, most would couch their support in terms of buying time. Time for developing a vaccine. Time for developing treatments. Time to better learn which activities contribute to the spread of the virus and which contribute less.
It is not a sophisticated argument, but it has the virtue of common sense. It might be wrong. It might be that a vaccine or treatment or better understanding are too far away to justify the economic sacrifice.
But the polling show a willingness to make that sacrifice on the part of most people. They would rather buy time and pay the very high price.
I would add though that those of us who are economists understand the externalities at work here. There are a lot of people who to one extent or another are acting as free riders in this situation.
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Meanwhile Sweden has basically fully flattened on infections of a month and soon we will see that impact on deaths once the lag settles.
We were told accept lockdowns or millions will die. Just another thing the expert and professional class got terribly wrong.
We were told accept lockdowns or millions will die. Just another thing the expert and professional class got terribly wrong.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The economic and social costs would be enormous whatever course was taken by government.
Pretty much every serious analyst who has looked at a "do nothing" or "intervene lightly" approach finds very high costs. That is not because those options are bad. It is because we are in a situation where all options result in enormous job losses and social dislocation.
We would have a deep recession just simply from spontaneous decisions by ordinary people to reduce certain activities. And those reductions in activities are likely to continue for some time. Until people feel safe going to work or to a movie or getting a haircut.
So we are trying to choose the least bad option in a terrible situation. Some involve a temporary suppression or reduction of cherished constitutional rights. Call it tyranny. But I think those options should be on the table.
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But temporary only needed to be 15-30 days.
It was once they have been extended has it caused unrest. We were perfectly willing to accept the premise but the goalposts have moved considerably.