Zack Cooper is an associate professor at the Yale School of Public Health and in Yale’s Department of Economics. He has advanced degrees and is an expert in his field. In spite of that I thought some of you might have an interest in this op-ed of his.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...p-testing-were-just-waiting-government-agree/
The weekly covid-19 testing regimen for President Trump and his staff, some of whom are tested even more frequently, is a blueprint for the rest of the country. But the White House has pushed back on experts’ calls for a massive surge in testing. The administration’s testing czar said last week that proposals to test millions of individuals daily were an “Ivory Tower, unreasonable benchmark,” and that “there is absolutely no way on Earth” millions could be tested daily.
To safely reopen the economy, experts say the United States needs about 20 million tests per day: a test for every American about every two weeks. The White House plans, however, call for facilitating testing for approximately 2 percent of the population per month. At current rates, it would take more than three years to test everyone in the United States for covid-19. This failure to expand testing places the burden of a hasty reopening squarely on blue-collar Americans — and risks a dangerous second wave later this year.
Testing millions daily can be done. A bipartisan team of experts convened by the Rockefeller Foundation — of which I am a member — drew up plans for scaling up testing from 1 million to 30 million weekly.
Manufacturers of tests and testing supplies, and the providers who deliver covid-19 tests, are facing a unique market failure. Firms generally recoup research, development and other fixed costs over long time horizons. But the pandemic has upended the usual model.
Huge numbers of tests are needed urgently. In all likelihood, presuming a vaccine is developed, the demand for testing will erode in 18 months. That means asking firms to bear huge costs to scale up production and figure out how to deliver tests without the usual runway to recoup startup expenses. Reaching the necessary volume of testing will cost more than we ever would have considered paying pre-pandemic.
Congress and the White House have not taken into account this market failure.
Ultimately, the United States faces a choice. We can reopen the economy without adequate testing, a move that raises the likelihood of a second wave of infections and places the costs of reopening squarely on the backs of essential workers. Alternatively, Congress could allocate more money for covid-19 testing and the White House could use those funds to test essential workers at the same rates White House staff are tested. This is both economically justifiable and our moral imperative.