nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think there is a question that any advocate of herd immunity should consider. How long will it take to achieve herd immunity.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
I think there is a question that any advocate of herd immunity should consider. How long will it take to achieve herd immunity.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Fair enough.
msstate7
Well-known member
How long for the alternative? There are no good choices
msstate7
Well-known member
You're such a sad person. I honestly pity you. Life is short, and you'll waste your life being angry.
You were fine with it March when the virus was apparently ripping through our population, as you put it.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think you asked a good question.
In some ways the right strategy turns on time to vaccine versus time to herd immunity. What makes it tough is we do not have a precise answer to either.
But if you thought a vaccine was six months away and herd immunity two years away, one strategy makes sense.
And if you thought a vaccine was two years away and herd immunity 6 months away, a different strategy would make sense.
There are other variables in play to make it more complicated. For example doctors are learning how to treat the disease. While not as comprehensive a solution as a vaccine, slowing down the accumulation of cases so that doctors have more time to refine treatment methods will save lives.
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The alternative is to suppress the spread as much as we realistically can and reduce the amount of deaths while a treatment/vaccine is found. Of course we don't know when I vaccine/treatment will be found (if ever) but recent reports are encouraging on that front and pretty much the entire world is working on it. So it seems fairly likely we'll find something soon.
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msstate7
Well-known member
And what if the virus mutates, and neither work out.
Then a finding a treatment option is even more of a priority.
sturg33
I
Its gotta be exhausting trying to force racism into literally every subject, doesnt it?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Also a very good question. You are on a roll this morning.
I think this is why it is important to try and come up with a strategy that is robust to worst case outcomes. What if it mutates. What if it takes 3 years to get a vaccine. What if it also takes 3 years to get herd immunity. What if immunity lasts only a few months.
Massive testing, as in testing everyone every few weeks, is a strategy that actually is robust in the sense of allowing us to live our lives under those scenarios. Amazon is doing this. Universities like Notre Dame as incorporating frequent testing into their plans for reopening this fall. Sports leagues are saying this is their plan. I think it is a good plan. Robust to adverse outcomes.
Sweden btw is not even making a pretense of testing widely.
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msstate7
Well-known member
But you can't shut down to wait for it. I think opening with precautions is the best plan. Maybe shelter in place the most vulnerable, and use another stimulus directly on them if needed. My parents are vulnerable though, and they want no part of a life without grandkids around... not sure how many are like them.
I didn't say we need to stay shutdown and wait for it. Again, I've been on board with phased openings for 2-3 weeks now in places that aren't hard hit by the virus.
And like nsacpi, I am totally on board with increased testing, specifically for anti-bodies. Knowing who has had it is a great way to fully re-open the country and also gives us more knowledge about the virus that would help if a mutation happens.
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I was fine with mass demonstrations or letting the healthy just live their lives as normal with precaution taken for at risk?
You have literally, in this thread, defended the Prez for holdings rallies in early March and for him encouraging other such gatherings. You've also defended the shutdown protestors. Are those not mass demonstrations?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Some countries waited a few extra weeks to get their infection rate really low (as in less than 1% positive test results) before reopening. Others (most sunbelt states) decided to reopen at an earlier point. It may not seem like much, but I think there is a big difference between reopening when 1% of tests are coming back positive and reopening when 5% are. Interestingly, the polling on this has shown support in this country for being cautious about reopening. There has been a large silent majority that has been supportive of the lockdowns. But politically, we have given up on it. And yes, the demonstrations have undermined the case for being patient. No doubt about that. But it is more complicated than just the demonstrations.
What did we know in early March? What were health experts saying then?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
they were saying it would go away like a miracle