I've NEVER said he should have seen it coming, if you read what I posted, you would know that. I said, you don't give big money deals to those type of players...I should add to that...if you're a team like the Braves with a limited budget. If you're the Yankees? Sure give BJ and Uggla 140 mil and trade 3 chips for McLouth...we aren't the kind of team that can miss on big money contracts, especially not repeatedly.
I mean come on, you're seriously telling me that if you were the Braves GM with our limited FA money, you would've given Uggla and BJ 150 mil? Really?
150 million for two players is logical, 150 million for one player is something out of the question for us.
You have to look at the scenarios here at their times.
When we gave Uggla that money, he was still a top 3 hitting 2nd Baseman + a RH bat. We were lacking in 2B AND lacking a power homerun cleanup type guy which he was both in Florida.
When we gave BJ that money, we had a hole for centerfield and BJ Upton was averaging 20+ homeruns the last 2 seasons in Tampa on an UPWARD slope. There was nothing to suggest he'd go from 23-28 to 9.
Also two things of note: BJ plays centerfield which is a premium defensive position. With Bourn being 2 years older than BJ and asking for roughly the same money in the same ballpark (it was Bourn's first real free agent contract and with him being 30 possibly his last chance at big bucks) there was no reason to give Bourn that money especially when we've all concluded that with no power his speed and defense would decline in the last few years of a long term deal. At least with BJ we assume he could still crack 12-15 homeruns in the last few years of any deal we give him.
If we gave Bourn the same contract as BJ or Choo, and either one struggled their first year we'd hear the same bullocks of why did Frank Wren throw this money at player _________.
What are the chances Bourn even gets close to 9 homeruns again in a season? Way less likely than BJ hitting 15 again.
I think you're kind of being a bit ridiculous against Wren with the Uggla and BJ deals. I don't think anyone expected they'd play THIS poorly. Yes there was regression predicted, but nowhere near the sorts of suckitude that these two produced the last season. I think in BJ's case we're all hoping last year was an aberration and that in Uggla's case who the hell knows.