Braves sign Gavin Floyd 1 yr 4M + incentives

[ramadon101]

I don't get what naysayers of this signing (or the Braves offseason in general) want Wren to do. The Cubs probably asked for Sims+ or one of Minor or Medlen plus... Epstein and co. are not going to be fleeced and I'm sure shot for the moon which Wren rightfully rejected. Now they have a pitcher who has had at least a track record of being an average SP (and, at times, an above average SP) for a salary that is roughly equivalent to HALF a win in this market. If he hits his incentives and makes the full 8.5m, such that we're paying for a little more than a single win, Floyd will have been worth 2 or more WAR which would make him an absolute bargain. If he tanks and never pitches an inning for us, it's a one time $4m sunk cost but it also gives Wren additional leverage in trade talks if he's still looking at same.

It's a win any way you slice it and it's a good signing in this insane market.

 

[JohnAdcox]

I don't get what naysayers of this signing (or the Braves offseason in general) want Wren to do. The Cubs probably asked for Sims+ or one of Minor or Medlen plus... Epstein and co. are not going to be fleeced and I'm sure shot for the moon which Wren rightfully rejected. Now they have a pitcher who has had at least a track record of being an average SP (and, at times, an above average SP) for a salary that is roughly equivalent to HALF a win in this market. If he hits his incentives and makes the full 8.5m, such that we're paying for a little more than a single win, Floyd will have been worth 2 or more WAR which would make him an absolute bargain. If he tanks and never pitches an inning for us, it's a one time $4m sunk cost but it also gives Wren additional leverage in trade talks if he's still looking at same.

It's a win any way you slice it and it's a good signing in this insane market.

Well said, mate. It's not the sort of signing that makes us run out and buy tickets, but it could be the time that makes things a little easier come mid season.

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

People can say what they want but it's not a good sign when Floyd and Gamel are your big offseason signings. Maybe we don't have a lot of open positions but I do think there are a lot of positions that need upgrading. CF and 2B are two giant black holes that come to mind. Catcher could be a weakness as well. We also need an ACE in my opinion. Also everyone knows I love Chris Johnson and think he's underrated by a lot of people here but that's a question mark too. Can he duplicate what he did last year?

 

[ramadon101]

People can say what they want but it's not a good sign when Floyd and Gamel are your big offseason signings. Maybe we don't have a lot of open positions but I do think there are a lot of positions that need upgrading. CF and 2B are two giant black holes that come to mind. Catcher could be a weakness as well. We also need an ACE in my opinion. Also everyone knows I love Chris Johnson and think he's underrated by a lot of people here but that's a question mark too. Can he duplicate what he did last year?

In a vacuum without context, I would agree with you. However Wren isn't dealing in same, unfortunately. You want an ace- ok - but are you willing to part with Minor and Sims for one? One that would only be here for 2 years before departing via FA because we all know we aren't going to be top bidder? What would you have Wren do with 2B and CF given the fact that we're stuck with big contracts and underperforming players at both positions? We weren't going to sign someone like Cano or Choo, and we have a good alternative in house in the form of La Stella at 2B, and have to hope that BJ - given his age and athleticism - will rebound going forward. He may never live up to his contract, but I don't think BJ replicates 2013 again in 2014. Uggla very well may, but again, we have a more than capable replacement in the form of La Stella (and, if Tommy fails, Pena or Pastornicky).

No CJ will not replicate his 2013, but neither will BJ. If Heyward remains healthy, you can almost assuredly expect an uptick in his production from 2013. On balance, I don't think we lost all that much offensively if Gattis can perform the way I think he can. He's the wildcard, to be honest.

 

[nsacpi]

People can say what they want but it's not a good sign when Floyd and Gamel are your big offseason signings. Maybe we don't have a lot of open positions but I do think there are a lot of positions that need upgrading. CF and 2B are two giant black holes that come to mind. Catcher could be a weakness as well. We also need an ACE in my opinion. Also everyone knows I love Chris Johnson and think he's underrated by a lot of people here but that's a question mark too. Can he duplicate what he did last year?

The question for me is whether there were outside options that would have improved us enough at CF and 2B to justify the expenditure.

I like Omar Infante a lot and think the contract he signed with KC is a good one for the club. He's going to be a 2-3 WAR player over most of that contract and $8M per year is a reasonable price for that. Whether the Braves should have gone after him depends on how you view him relative to the in-house options. If you think the in-house options will generate zero WAR, then yes you go after Infante. But if you think we can get 2 WAR from some mix of La Stella, Uggla, Pena and Pastornicky, then you are paying too much for that extra win by signing Infante.

The situation in CF is similar. We have some in-house alternatives should BJ fail to bounce back. With Heyward being able to play center that would include corner outfield types in our system (Terdsolavich, Constanza) as well as guys who can play center (Schafer, Cunningham). Between BJ and those options I think we'll get satisfactory production from CF.

This team is strong in six out of eight positions. All it needs is to avoid second and center being the complete black holes they were in 2013.

The other consideration is that Wren appears to have kept some payroll in reserve for mid-season acquisitions. Maybe an upgrade will in fact be needed at second or center. But it could be somewhere else. We shouldn't presume that the upgrade will be needed at second or center. There are always surprises each season--from injuries, from players turning into pumpkins, etc.

 

[yeezus]

Someone refresh my memory, who did the Cardinals sign last off-season? How about the year they lost Albert?

Fact is, you don't win games in the off-season.

We simply DO NOT have a ton of holes, and the ones we do, are not easy to fix.

I'm still waiting for those complaining to tell me specifically what they wanted done, and what they were willing to give up.

You don't need to sign a big FA or trade all your prospects for a player to have a good off-season and following season.

We have a really young squad, most of the guys from our own farm. That's how you sustain success.

 

[NYCBrave]

People can say what they want but it's not a good sign when Floyd and Gamel are your big offseason signings. Maybe we don't have a lot of open positions but I do think there are a lot of positions that need upgrading. CF and 2B are two giant black holes that come to mind. Catcher could be a weakness as well. We also need an ACE in my opinion. Also everyone knows I love Chris Johnson and think he's underrated by a lot of people here but that's a question mark too. Can he duplicate what he did last year?

This post doesn't make any sense given the current situation of our roster. Can you please provide solutions as how you would fix the problems you named?

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

I really don't have any (we have bad contracts that are hard to move). I'm just saying there are reasons to be concerned about this team this year. People keep acting like everything is fine and we are so loaded we don't need to do anything. I just don't believe that's the case. I think we have a good team but not a great team. I also believe we are built for the regular season more than we are the playoffs.

 

[yeezus]

This post doesn't make any sense given the current situation of our roster. Can you please provide solutions as how you would fix the problems you named?

No one will answer this question. They'll say Floyd makes no sense (when he makes a TON of sense) and that we needed something bigger.

Well, WHAT, people? What did you want, and what would you have given up in terms of money or prospects?

I'll say it again, we don't have many open spots in our lineup.

Obviously an upgrade at 2B would have been nice. I'm sure it was looked in to. I'm also pretty confident the asking price for a guy like Howie Kendrick would have been absurdly high for the level of player he is. Would you rather have TLS and Sims, or Kendrick? What if Kendrick came here and became a dud while TLS and Sims blossomed? The same people calling for Wren to take more action would trash him for that trade.

It seems like people think if we want someone, another team will basically give them to us.

I tried to use reason in why Wren ditched the Samardjiza thought and moved on to Floyd. The Cubs don't have to deal JS. If we waited them out and they don't lower their asking price, then we also would have lost out on the opportunity to add a 3 WAR pitcher for 4-8.5 million (which is a steal). Then we'd be left with worse options, worse depth, more complaints.

 

[yeezus]

I really don't have any (we have bad contracts that are hard to move). I'm just saying there are reasons to be concerned about this team this year. People keep acting like everything is fine and we are so loaded we don't need to do anything. I just don't believe that's the case. I think we have a good team but not a great team. I also believe we are built for the regular season more than we are the playoffs.

Show me a team with ZERO question marks.

There was no shot of us changing CFers or doing anything with that position.

The cost for an upgrade at 2B was likely too high.

Our whole roster is young and blossoming. Teheran took major strides last year, as did Minor.

What would you have traded for that ace you so badly desire?

The franchise, giving their financial position, felt it was best to ride our homegrown guys like Minor, Teheran, and Medlen and hope one of them turns in to a shutdown guy.

We have a great, super young rotation.

A lot of teams would be envious of the amount of young talent we have.

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

I said it wasn't a good sign when Floyd is all you can do, I didn't say it was a signing that made no sense. It's the situation we have put ourselves in and it's a signing that is being used for depth more than anything. It makes sense when you look at the trade market out there. I agree giving up a ton of prospects and overpaying would be a bad idea but that doesn't change the needs we have or the type of year we'll have with this current roster. We are in a tough division and are hamstrung by bad contracts. I'm concerned.

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

The rotation will be fine during the regular season but the problem is what happens in October. What do we have to match up with other teams Aces. Where is the guy going in game 1 and 2 that can completely shut down the opponent? Same thing with the offense, we still have too many players who strikeout. Where is the ability to manufacture runs? This is pretty much the same team we had last year. Good solid team? Sure. Where have we improved that has given us the ability to take the next step? Again I'm not blaming Wren for his inactivity but I do blame him for the bad contracts he's handed out in previous years. It's hurting us right now.

 

[nsacpi]

It is worth remembering that John Lackey was one of the Red Sox' key pitchers in their march to a title. He was coming off TJ surgery. And before that he was almost run out of town because of perceived attitudinal issues.

In putting together a winning team, you have to take some risks. You try to be smart about them. And you need to keep your fingers crossed because some help from Lady Luck never hurts.

 

[yeezus]

I said it wasn't a good sign when Floyd is all you can do, I didn't say it was a signing that made no sense. It's the situation we have put ourselves in and it's a signing that is being used for depth more than anything. It makes sense when you look at the trade market out there. I agree giving up a ton of prospects and overpaying would be a bad idea but that doesn't change the needs we have or the type of year we'll have with this current roster. We are in a tough division and are hamstrung by bad contracts. I'm concerned.

Tough division? The Nats are the only good team. Everyone else really stinks.

Floyd wasn't "all we could do," it was the move that made the most sense. We COULD have dealt a ton of prospects for JS or DP, but chose not to, and for good reason. We have ton of valuable SP waiting to take the next step.

This team will be very good this year, as long as Minor and Teheran don't regress majorly (no reason to believe they will; in fact, they likely progress further).

You have no idea what type of year we will have with the current roster. Actually, we have some idea: it's likely 90+ wins. If Teheran and Minor continue to improve, we will be back to 95+.

The whole "built for the playoffs" thing is weak. If you have a hot pitcher or hitter(s) entering the playoffs, you can win it all. We're built fine.

 

[yeezus]

It is worth remembering that John Lackey was one of the Red Sox' key pitchers in their march to a title. He was coming off TJ surgery. And before that he was almost run out of town because of perceived attitudinal issues.

In putting together a winning team, you have to take some risks. You try to be smart about them. And you need to keep your fingers crossed because some help from Lady Luck never hurts.

And he received a large contract and was a dud until last year.

 

[yeezus]

The rotation will be fine during the regular season but the problem is what happens in October. What do we have to match up with other teams Aces. Where is the guy going in game 1 and 2 that can completely shut down the opponent? Same thing with the offense, we still have too many players who strikeout. Where is the ability to manufacture runs? This is pretty much the same team we had last year. Good solid team? Sure. Where have we improved that has given us the ability to take the next step? Again I'm not blaming Wren for his inactivity but I do blame him for the bad contracts he's handed out in previous years. It's hurting us right now.

Teheran or Minor could become the guy this year that can go toe-to-toe with anyone else.

The Cardinals rode Wacha in the playoffs last year. Who's to say Teheran or Wood can't do something similar?

 

[yeezus]

And Wren's bad contracts are more than balanced out by the fact that we have a ton of young, affordable players through drafts/signings that are on the ML roster. Freeman, Heyward, JUp, CJ, Simmons, Gattis, Wood, Teheran, Minor, Medlen, Beachy are all below-market guys.

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

The whole "built for the playoffs" thing is weak. If you have a hot pitcher or hitter(s) entering the playoffs, you can win it all. We're built fine.

Then we disagree, I think this is a poorly built roster for the playoffs. This team has to rely on the 3 run homer, they don't have the ability to manufacture runs. We agree this team will win a lot of games in the regular season, that's not the issue. The playoffs are a different animal altogether. People say all you have to do is get hot but why is it throughout our history we don't have that hot streak while other teams do? Maybe it's something we are doing wrong.

 

[Enscheff]

No one will answer this question. They'll say Floyd makes no sense (when he makes a TON of sense) and that we needed something bigger.

Well, WHAT, people? What did you want, and what would you have given up in terms of money or prospects?

I'll say it again, we don't have many open spots in our lineup.

Obviously an upgrade at 2B would have been nice. I'm sure it was looked in to. I'm also pretty confident the asking price for a guy like Howie Kendrick would have been absurdly high for the level of player he is. Would you rather have TLS and Sims, or Kendrick? What if Kendrick came here and became a dud while TLS and Sims blossomed? The same people calling for Wren to take more action would trash him for that trade.

It seems like people think if we want someone, another team will basically give them to us.

I tried to use reason in why Wren ditched the Samardjiza thought and moved on to Floyd. The Cubs don't have to deal JS. If we waited them out and they don't lower their asking price, then we also would have lost out on the opportunity to add a 3 WAR pitcher for 4-8.5 million (which is a steal). Then we'd be left with worse options, worse depth, more complaints.

Fine, I'll bite. I would have actually FIXED some of the areas of need rather than made them worse.

Chavez should have been signed rather than Floyd AND Gamel. Chavez would have provided LHed power off the bench, plus an insurance policy against CJ regressing and Freeman getting hurt.

I would have traded for Kendrick. Failing that I would go into the season with the current jumble of mediocrity currently in place. It is obvious nobody wanted Uggla for any price, so it appears trading him is impossible.

I would not have signed Ventersd OR EOF. Why sign these guys that aren't healthy? Sign a LHer for the pen that can actually break camp with the club.

I also actually do my job and get involved in the Fister sweepstakes. There is no way Wren did his due diligence while missing that opportunity.

Then I'd wait until late in the offseason when one of the many setup men on the FA market are sitting around to be signed for half price. If a starter is also sitting there without a home I snatch him up too.

 

[nsacpi]

Then we disagree, I think this is a poorly built roster for the playoffs. This team has to rely on the 3 run homer, they don't have the ability to manufacture runs. We agree this team will win a lot of games in the regular season, that's not the issue. The playoffs are a different animal altogether. People say all you have to do is get hot but why is it throughout our history we don't have that hot streak while other teams do? Maybe it's something we are doing wrong.

I think both power pitching and power hitting are part of the secret sauce for the playoffs. Detroit is a team optimized for the playoffs. But as we have seen there is no guarantee. Optimizing a team for the playoffs just moves the needle slightly in one direction. Getting hot and lucky are also important. The playoffs really are a lottery.

With respect to the Braves, I think we have generally not been optimized for the playoffs and also a bit unlucky. We have had some great non-power pitchers. Smoltz has been the exception. But guys like Glavine and Maddux do not dominate the way a Randy Johnson or a Curt Schilling can. And the current batch of starting pitchers doesn't have a dominant ace or two.

What to do about it? I think the right approach is to be patient and keep working at developing homegrown aces. They don't grow on trees. But we have quite a few young pitchers both on the farm and in the majors who could become aces. While waiting on that, Wren has to continue taking steps to make the team better. Many of them seem like baby steps. But you have to stick with it.